In The First Two Months, The 50 Cities Sold More Than 500 Billion Second And Second Lines To Reproduce The Siphon Effect.

After the Spring Festival, the spread of the epidemic and the dismal sales of the property market showed that the figure of the land market was very striking.

Central Plains real estate statistics show that in 1-2 months, 50 cities jointly sold 518 billion, up 4.1% over the same period. Among them, the Hongkong land consortium shot Shanghai's new "land king" with a total of 31 billion 50 million yuan.

In the TOP10 cities with the total transaction price, the growth rates of the first tier cities in Shanghai and Beijing were 112% and 14% respectively, and the growth rate was significantly quickened. The second tier cities, Wenzhou and Nanjing, had a larger increase. Siphon effect is obvious in second tier cities.

However, the industry pointed out that many of the places taken after the year were inspected or trenches passed before, and the housing companies were only carrying out the established plans. After the outbreak, most companies will have to adjust their budget this year.

It is noteworthy that large housing enterprises, especially state owned housing enterprises, bring capital and operation advantages to become the main force of the land market, increase sales scale, and then take the land to form a positive cycle.

And many small private housing enterprises can only be left behind by the flood of the times. They seem to have difficulty in breaking away from such a fate.

After the Spring Festival, the spread of the epidemic and the dismal sales of the property market showed that the figure of the land market was very striking. Gan Jun photo

The upsurge of state-owned enterprises

In the normal year of sale, the land market is often flooded with the developers of various camps. In February this year, only a few people could participate in the games, especially those in the first tier cities.

According to the Central Plains data, 1-2 months TOP10 Housing enterprises took a total of 141 billion 300 million yuan, an increase of 3.4% over the same period, accounting for 49.39% of the total TOP50 housing prices.

Judging from the amount of land taken, the Hongkong land consortium ranked first in terms of 31 billion 800 million yuan, and Greentown China ranked 26 billion 800 million in second place.

In this upsurge, the protagonists are almost all state-owned enterprises and large housing enterprises with distinct characteristics. Even behind Hongkong land and green city, there are shadows of state assets.

In the total TOP20, there were 5 local state-owned enterprises and 6 central enterprises, of which Huarun land ranked third in 14 billion yuan. Baoli development, Zhonghai real estate, China real estate, China railway construction, Beijing construction industry and other central enterprises have taken more than 4 billion yuan.

"Under the epidemic situation, there are still businesses that are not bad money." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, said that recently, the land market in the whole country was mainly state-owned enterprises, and private enterprises were very few. Most of them were land acquired by the SOEs.

Ke Rui also believes that capital adequacy, low cost of financing of the central enterprises, state-owned enterprises, is the current land market actively take the first class housing prices. Represented by Huarun land, China Communications Group and first Kai, the amount is much higher than that of its 1-2 month trading volume.

In fact, from 2018 onwards, state owned housing enterprises have been actively layout, seize high-quality plots, strong momentum.

In 2018, the National Housing enterprises took the amount of TOP100, while Pauli development, Huarun land and Zhonghai real estate ranked third, fourth and fifth respectively at 100 billion 100 million yuan, 80 billion 300 million yuan and 76 billion yuan. By 2019, Pauli development, Zhonghai real estate and Huarun land were third, fourth and fourth respectively, 116 billion 600 million yuan, 103 billion 400 million yuan, 81 billion 300 million yuan respectively.

Zhang Dawei analysis, in 1-2 months, the central bank has routinely put in liquidity to stabilize market sentiment. Poly development, such as relying on state-owned enterprises, is easier to obtain liquidity support, and the cost of financing will be lower than the average level of the industry.

In addition, the operation of state-owned enterprises is generally sound, known for its low leverage ratio, with the addition of leverage. Although the epidemic has frozen the property market, if we grasp it well, it is the overtaking opportunity of the state-owned enterprises in the land market, laying the foundation for subsequent market share.

He also reminded that if Hubei can control the epidemic situation quickly, superimpose the expected dividend reduction and other policy dividends, or even reappear a significant Spring Festival, state-owned enterprises will show a bright eye in the second half of the year; relatively, if the follow-up continues to be affected by the epidemic, the capital chain of housing enterprises will be tight.

Siphon effect of a second line

Observing the characteristics of the land sale this year, we can see that the land market is still in the doldrums, but the funds are more concentrated in the second tier, and the market is breaking out in a small area.

"This epidemic situation also let everybody discover, second tier, especially the first tier cities, all kinds of resources and urban governance are relatively better, and the property market has more opportunities." A housing company with more people this year said.

According to Kerri data, in February 2020, the total amount of land leasing in the whole country amounted to 240 billion yuan, although the overall decline was 35%. The volume of land in the two or three tier cities was 50% lower than that in the first tier cities, but the volume of land transactions in the first tier cities increased.

In February, a total of 641 land transactions were completed in the second tier cities nationwide, with a total turnover of 158 billion 160 million yuan. More than 1 billion of the total number of plots was 46, mainly distributed in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Fuzhou and Wenzhou. 27 of the premium rates exceeded 10%, accounting for 59%. In the total TOP10 of residential land, Shanghai accounted for one and Beijing accounted for 7.

The middle finger Research Institute report also showed that in 2020 1-2, the total land transaction volume of TOP10 was 256 billion 700 million yuan, an increase of 0.08% over last year. Among them, the total transaction price of 67 billion 300 million yuan in Beijing ranked first in the list. Shanghai and Hangzhou respectively accounted for second, third of the total 61 billion 900 million and 37 billion yuan respectively.

The total transaction price of TOP10 was 112%, 14% in Shanghai and Beijing in the first tier cities, and the growth rate was significantly faster. The second tier cities in Wenzhou and Nanjing increased considerably. Chengdu, which topped the list of planned construction areas, grew 39% over the same period last year.

Beijing's land market has begun to release its vitality again. In the first two months of the year, 16 residential sites were sold through auction and auction, of which 12 were not limited to land. The amount of land sold was as high as 67 billion 188 million yuan, and the average premium rate was 19.48%, all of which reached a record high.

Zhongyuan Real estate market analyst Lu Wenxi believes that a second tier city has a higher margin of safety and a more stable demand. After the outbreak, the refinement level, management level and resources of urban management will affect the willingness of prospective buyers to buy houses, and strengthen their determination to buy a house in a second tier city.

Tianfeng Securities believes that the heat of the land market is picking up. The epidemic has a short impact on sales, and the demand for second tier cities (non home buyers) is only a postposition. However, the demand for long-term home ownership is still in place. In March and April, there was a slight spring in the wake of the push up. Many land policies were relaxed, and development loans and non-standard financing were relaxed. The cash situation of Housing enterprises will be improved significantly, which will help the land market recover.

At present, the epidemic is still stuck, and most housing companies are cautious. According to Kerri data, top 100 housing prices fell by over 15% in the first two months of the year, of which the sales of TOP10 enterprises increased by nearly 80 billion yuan in 1-2 months, down 50% from the same period in 2019.

Many housing companies also expressed optimism. "After the wait-and-see period, the land still needs to invest heavily. The original plan to increase the value of the new land reserve this year has not changed." Wu Jianbin, senior vice president of sunshine city, said.

?