It'S Hard To Get A Mask. The Resumed Businesses Are Going To Stop Working. Soaring Prices Of Upstream Materials

"This week's mask problem is solved. What shall we do next week?"

A listed precision processing enterprise, more than 1000 employees, resumed production in mid February. During the Spring Festival, enterprises began to consider the production of mask machines, but at present, they are in the shortage of masks. In the local government to help coordinate, last week to solve 500 masks, only enough enterprise half day staff demand, helpless, can only buy 5000 masks in the market high price.

In fact, there are not many enterprises out of stock. Recently, the securities times e learned from a number of listed companies that, due to the failure to protect employees' mask demand at work, according to the relevant requirements, these enterprises were faced with a dilemma of re production after resumption of production.

What is the change of the mask industry chain and what is the problem in the supply chain under the "hard cover"? For this reason, the securities times e reporter conducted a survey.

Melt spray cloth prices flying

"It is not difficult to make masks. The key is that there is no melt spray in the market now. According to the production capacity, the company's production line can reach 2 million days / days, but now because of the lack of melt spray cloth, now Nissan can only stay at 200 thousand. In March 5th, a textile listed company in Zhejiang was called e.

At present, the domestic mask manufacturers have reached more than 4000, although there is a significant gap between the supply and demand of mask, there may not be many enterprises that can start full load at present. Reporters learned that, due to the impact of melt blown cloth supply, local masks manufacturers entered the raw material shortage period, and some manufacturers even stopped production.

As the head of the mask production department in Jiangsu, Wang Qiang (alias) has been busy over the past few weeks. The masked production line of the pharmaceutical industry listed company has just started mass shipment, but also faced with the hardship of raw materials.

"Now, the worst source of masks is melted spray cloth. Buying goods is all about grabbing. It's crazy to grab masks." When interviewed by the securities times e company in the evening of March 1st, Wang Qiang was still butting production in the factory. He told reporters that the price of melted spray cloth on the market is not based on the variables of the day, but on the hourly valuation. On the same day, some people quoted him 380 thousand yuan / ton, the source of goods from Turkey, to Guangzhou port need to mention, the quoted price does not contain tax, and the total transportation cost will be close to 450 thousand yuan / ton.

"The price of the previous melted cloth is very low, which is ten thousand or twenty thousand yuan per ton, slightly more expensive than the non-woven fabric, which is not so outrageous at all." Wang Qiang said that melted spray cloth is divided into medical level and civilian level, medical grade is also divided into BFE55 and BFE99, the price is different. At present, the price of melted cloth at civilian level in the market is more than 320 thousand yuan / ton, while the medical grade BFE99 market has a higher price of 500 thousand yuan / ton.

According to his disclosure, because of the limited capacity of domestic melt spray cloth and the fundamental need to protect production, there will be high prices for imported raw materials from Turkey and other countries on the market. Japan used to be one of the channel countries to import melt blown fabrics a while ago. However, with the increasing severity of the epidemic in Japan, Japanese companies have gone too far to find Chinese enterprises seeking cooperative procurement.

There are three directions in the domestic melt blown fabric products, one is the unified supervision and allocation by the government, the other is the normal market channel, and it will also be subject to certain government monitoring, and the price is relatively fair. However, because the price is too high, the market also appears black market, that is, the third channel. The black market has no contracts and no invoices, so the price has been raised by a round of rounds.

"The price of the black market is mostly supplied to small factories. At present, our company has not dared to buy high priced products. The price is too ridiculous. Some time ago, the price of the domestic melt blown fabric BFE95 purchased by the company through regular market channels was 75 thousand yuan / ton, and the BFE99 price was 100 thousand yuan / ton. Speaking of the current enterprise's melt blown fabric procurement channels, Wang Qiang said that because the company is a listed company, the mask products currently produced are also directly handed over to local governments, so the relevant departments will also protect the supply of raw materials accordingly. In addition, the company also makes filtration products in the early stage. Although it does not use melted spray cloth, it needs to use non-woven fabrics, and the general nonwoven enterprises will have one or two production lines to produce melted spray cloth. Therefore, the company and the upstream melt spraying enterprises are long-term partners. In order to maintain the downstream customer relationship, the company can also purchase a certain amount of domestic low-cost melted cloth.

Although there is the advantage of purchasing cheap melt spray cloth, Wang Qiang still feels that the cost of mask is high. He said that the cost of ear masks was the highest in the past, but the cost of melted cloth was more than half of the cost of masks, and the cost of each of them was over 30 Fen, while the previous melt blown fabric accounted for only 12% of the total cost.

Extreme shortage of upstream materials

According to the relevant regulations of the state, the medical masks contain at least 3 layers of non-woven fabrics, and the melted cloth located in the middle layer is also the core "heart" of the mask to realize the filtering function. Although the 3 layers of material are polypropylene special resin, there are great differences in the production process and properties between the special materials and other non-woven fabrics.

In the interview, Wang Qiang said that the price of melt spray cloth is also rising, and there are many factors in the upper reaches of the industrial chain. However, because the relevant departments of the state control and control, the most upstream product price changes will be relatively weakest.

"Recently, polypropylene raw materials prices have not shown a very significant increase. The overall polypropylene price has been falling for some time after the Spring Festival, but it has rebounded in recent years, but it is also in the normal range of fluctuation. Zhuo Chuang polypropylene analyst Pan Jifeng believes that the two layers of cloth inside and outside the mask are ordinary fiber cloth, which can be directly produced through polypropylene. However, melt blown cloth needs to be modified by polypropylene to melt spray material, and then melt blown material is used to produce melt blown cloth. In addition, other chemical raw materials need to be modified with formula, so the process is more complicated. However, the price of polypropylene is not related to the price of melt blown cloth, and the effect of price transmission is not obvious. At present, the price of polypropylene fiber material is about 7300 yuan / ton, and last year the price was more than 8000 yuan. At present, the overall price trend of polypropylene is downward, and the price is not historically high. Affected by the epidemic, polypropylene recovery is relatively slow at present, and the production of upstream petrochemical enterprises is basically normal. Just a few days before the resumption of production, some areas were temporarily unable to load for several days because of the lack of freight, or because of inventory pressure. But since last week, most of the factory capacity has been restored, the overall load is above 80%, and the inventory is also at a high level.

However, Li Lu, a polypropylene analyst at the business association, believes that the price of melt blown fabric is rising, and there is indeed a shortage of upstream polypropylene materials. He said polypropylene was divided into various models, mainly used for drawing and injection molding. Although the upper reaches of the melt blown fabric were polypropylene, but due to the limited market size, the degree of concern was not high, and domestic output was very small.

"In the past normal years, the demand for polypropylene used for melt blown fabrics in China is about 800 thousand tons / year. After the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia, the demand for masks increased rapidly, and polypropylene, which was supplied to the melt spraying enterprises, began to be scarce. In March 5th, satellite Petrochemical related responsible person told reporters at e company that as an important supplier of raw material polypropylene for domestic melt spraying enterprises, the output of satellite petro polypropylene at present is 450 thousand tons / year, and the annual output of polypropylene used in the production of mask melt blown fabric is 340 thousand tons / year.

In order to meet the market gap, balance the supply and demand relationship, help the epidemic prevention and control, including Sinopec, Shanghai petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical upstream petrochemical enterprises, began to expand production.

For example, Rongsheng petrochemical, e company reporter learned from Rongsheng petrochemical, the company's Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. polypropylene plant first line, has been transferred from the original brand S1003 to mask S2040, new brand has high melt index, is the production of medical surgical masks and N95 mouth cover important material.

It is reported that Zhejiang Petrochemical Polypropylene annual production capacity of 900 thousand tons, if full load production can exceed 1 million tons per year, there are now two production lines. Among them, the first production line of polypropylene conversion in Zhejiang Petrochemical Company is currently running smoothly with 45 tons / hour capacity.

Rongsheng Petrochemical correspondent told reporters that at present, Zhejiang Petrochemical's first polypropylene production line can be used for melt blown cloth, the device is currently running at a stable capacity of 45 tons / hour. Then, through cooperation with the main production enterprises of melt blown and modified materials in China and supplying polypropylene powder and pellets, the supply has gradually started.

"From the recent transformation of Sinopec, Shanghai petrochemical and other enterprises, the production of wire drawing and injection molding polypropylene production line has been converted into the production line of melt blown material, which shows that the market is extremely short supply." Li Lu, a business analyst with polypropylene, is so impressed.

New difficulties in capacity production

During the interview, most people told reporters that the reason for the rise in the price of melt blown cloth is that the market capacity is difficult to expand in a short time besides the shortage of raw materials.

"In February this year, the company launched the expansion plan for the melt blown production line, but it is not known when it will be put into production," he said. Daen shares told reporters at the securities times e company that the company had a daily output of 200 tons per year, with an annual output of about 70 thousand tons. The main customers include Xinlong holdings and TEDA shares. However, due to the sudden amplification of demand, the company's capacity was temporarily unable to meet the market demand. Now, if you want to get the goods, you will have to wait in line.

"The more we go upstream, the longer the production cycle will take. If it is only a production mask, the production line can be put into production immediately according to the drawings, but to make polypropylene is the chemical process of the whole petrochemical refining and production of by-products, which is more complicated, and it can not be expanded immediately if it wants to expand production. Chemical production lines generally need several years to build. " Wang Qiang said.

In the context of the shortage of supply and the soaring price of the melt blown fabric, enterprises also started the layout quickly.

On the afternoon of March 3rd, Xinye textile announced that the board of directors approved the adoption of the motion on investment in the construction of high-grade spinning composite nonwovens project, with a total investment of 120 million yuan and a construction period of 6 months. After the completion of the project, it is expected to produce 25 thousand tons of high grade textile composite nonwoven fabric annually, with an annual sales revenue of 425 million yuan and a total profit of 31 million 900 thousand yuan.

"High grade textile composite nonwovens can also be used as mask materials for melt blown layers. At the same time, the products produced by the company are more widely used, which can support the production of medical masks, and can also be used in other disposable sanitary products." Xinye textile related responsible person accepts the securities times e reporter's interview, said that the company project feasibility study is based on the price of 20 thousand yuan per ton plan, but in fact, the market price is much higher. At present, the market of melting melts is really difficult to purchase. It is understood that the company is located in the Henan area without scale and can produce the production line of melt blown cloth, and local raw materials need to be purchased. So although this product is the first contact with the production for the company, but because of the market demand, it still hopes to alleviate the relative scarcity of the current resources of Henan melt blown fabric.

However, the expansion of the production line takes time and capital investment, which is not a large-scale upgrading of the original melt blown fabric production industry in a short time.

When it comes to the difficulty in expanding the capacity of melted cloth, the official said that the production line of the melt spraying cloth needs a certain amount of investment. Take the company's planned two production lines as an example, only 90 million yuan is needed for fixed assets, plus liquidity, and so on.

"Masks can be done in many small workshops, but melted cloth is not something that any company can produce. A device occupies an area of 50 meters, multiplied by 100 meters. At present, our company's workshop is ready-made, so it takes 6 months to estimate two lines. If there is no factory building, it will take longer. She said.

Because of the similarity of the industry, the recent transfer from textile enterprises to masks is widespread. However, few enterprises have switched to melt blown fabrics. Why? So a textile company told reporters at the securities times e company that the cost of building a melted spray cloth production line is not high enough. About 5 million or so is enough. Why do we not have the melt blown fabric, the key is time, the production is the mask, and the production line can be adjusted in 10 days. However, the key parts of the machine for making melt blown cloth need to be imported from abroad. When a production line is completed, it will be estimated to be at least three months. The recent surge in market masks is caused by a sudden outbreak. Nobody knows about the guild in the next three months. Maybe the epidemic is over and no mask is needed, so we dare not venture.

According to the data from the "sky eye" professional edition, a total of 145 enterprises in China are engaged in the manufacturing, marketing and technical consultation of melted cloth, and nearly 90% of them are limited liability companies. The number of related enterprises in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shandong provinces is the largest. Judging from the establishment time, China's melt blown fabric industry is still relatively young, with 63% of the enterprises established in less than 5 years, and a total of 15 enterprises were established in 2019. With regard to the registered capital of enterprises, about 33% of the registered capital of the melt blown fabric enterprises is above 10 million.

Market chaos highlights

In the context of continued high demand for mask, there is an endless stream of speculation on the industrial chain.

"Not only melt spray cloth, but now the overall cost of mask production has been improved. A mask production equipment is normal, as long as more than ten million yuan, now the price has been fried to about two million yuan, and can buy very little equipment. Wang Qiang disclosed that at present, the market of masks is chaotic, and the threshold and low level of masks factories are built. No matter who builds a factory from the black market, there is a workshop, a production line can start production, completely unable to reach the medical level environment. However, in the current special period, the local government, in order to meet the needs of the market, also has a blind eye to the approval process. As long as there is a mask, it is hard currency, and there is not much demand for the production environment. The local government of Guangdong even has a policy. As soon as an enterprise can debug a mask production line and enter the mass production link, it immediately rewards 500 thousand yuan, so the profit driven businesses swarm into the swarm, and the prices of equipment and raw materials are fired up.

It is said that many mask companies are in a state of shutdown due to the fact that they cannot buy melt blown cloth, but some masks factories have not started making fraudulent practices. Since there are no strict medical standards for civilian level testing standards, enterprises are beginning to fish in troubled waters. Use air conditioning filter cloth to make melt blown layer for civilian products. "Some small factories do not care about the credibility of enterprises, and earn a few months' money." Wang Qiang said.

According to the Henan new crown pneumonia epidemic prevention and control conference information, as of February 20th, Henan seized 2 million 224 thousand and 400 counterfeit masks, fined 4 million 415 thousand yuan, transferred 66 cases to the public security organs, and some involved persons were also taken for criminal detention mandatory measures on suspicion of selling unqualified medical devices.

According to incomplete statistics, in nearly a month, 12 counterfeit and shoddy masks cases, which were disclosed by the public security organs and the market supervision and Administration Bureau in Henan, and so on, had 1 cases of counterfeit and shoddy masks through Alipay transactions, and 10 cases of selling fake and shoddy masks through micro businesses and friends circles, accounting for more than 80%.

Faced with mask "hard to find", the recent A shares market mask mask fever is high. Wind data showed that the mask index rose 46.72% in 1 months. Related stocks, such as Ogilvy medical, Xinlong shares, Dahn shares and so on, even received a daily limit.

With the popularity of the capital market, some listed companies are also unable to hold back. For example, Tanaka precision machine, investors in interactive easy platform asked, "in November 2015, the company said it had developed a mask automatic production line, whether it can produce new coronavirus pneumonia medical protective mask." The company is ambiguous and vague in reply, saying: "the company is an automation equipment R & D and manufacturing company with relevant R & D reserves. At present, there is no order for masks equipment, so investors should pay attention to the related risks."

After a "related research and development reserve, there is no relevant order at present", the price of Tanaka precision machine is on the following day. However, after the trading, Tanaka precision machine also added a reply on the interactive platform, saying that the company had no qualification for mask production, and the mask produced by the related equipment could not be used for the new type of coronavirus pneumonia medical protection.

However, some companies "speculation" failed, but instead received the supervision of the exchange. According to incomplete statistics, since February, regulators have sent inquiries to Tanaka, Sanfo, outdoor, Sega, Sai, and so on.

[observation] bubble is still a good opportunity?

The demand for melt blown fabrics and even the entire mask industry is booming, which is undoubtedly the result of the recent outbreak of the new crown pneumonia outbreak in the world. However, with the gradual emergence of epidemic prevention and control in China, the demand for respirators can also be predicted to continue to fall.

In recent years, a large number of large and medium-sized enterprises, including listed companies in the capital market, have invested a large number of capital extension and cross border masks industrial chain under the support of the government or the market drive. How will these investments and production capacity be disposed of after the bubble? Do the relevant enterprises take into account the strategy to cope with the decline in demand after the boom?

"The construction and production of masks can be said to be doing fast money business, but at the same time, our enterprises are doing long-term layout. Although the entire mask industry chain has been hyped up, it will surely burst, but it will be two months and 35 months slow. " Wang Qiang disclosed that at present, while manufacturing masks, the company also aims at positioning high-end products, and has already worked with an American company to integrate nano layer and melted spray layer through technology. The company has its own laboratory, and now the relevant products are already being proofed, and the test report of product performance is also coming out.

"The degree of filtration of melted cloth is micron and nanometer, and the performance of material adsorption and filtration is totally different. At present, the largest amount of melt blown fabric on the market is micron scale, which can filter dust and bacteria. But we cooperate with the US company to do nano scale filtration. The permeability is very good, which is 30% higher than that of the 3M respirator, and will occupy the high-end market in the future. He said.

The company is more optimistic about the long-term market of the future epidemic prevention materials for the development of Xinye textile. The above said, the company's high grade spinning and weaving composite nonwoven production line is not only used for mask production, but also can be used in many fields such as environmental protection, hygiene, medical treatment and so on. At present, this material is used widely, and global demand has been a trend of rapid growth. Before the outbreak, the protection consciousness of the public in China was relatively weak. The application scenarios of masks and other protective devices were mostly used in hospitals, but seldom used by ordinary people. But after this epidemic, I believe that the public's awareness of health protection will also increase, and the market demand in the future will gradually increase.

The joint defense and joint control mechanism of the State Council held a press conference in March 4th. Cao Xuejun, deputy director of the Department of consumer goods industry of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said that at present, the epidemic has emerged in many countries around the world, and there is a shortage of protective clothing. China is a big producer of protective clothing. We encourage domestic protective clothing production enterprises to actively meet the needs of foreign countries and standardize the production and export according to the corresponding standards.

It has been hyped up, but it will surely burst, but it will be 35 months in two months. " Wang Qiang disclosed that at present, while manufacturing masks, the company also aims at positioning high-end products, and has already worked with an American company to integrate nano layer and melted spray layer through technology. The company has its own laboratory, and now the relevant products are already being proofed, and the test report of product performance is also coming out.

"The degree of filtration of melted cloth is micron and nanometer, and the performance of material adsorption and filtration is totally different. At present, the largest amount of melt blown fabric on the market is micron scale, which can filter dust and bacteria. But we cooperate with the US company to do nano scale filtration. The permeability is very good, which is 30% higher than that of the 3M respirator, and will occupy the high-end market in the future. He said.

The company is more optimistic about the long-term market of the future epidemic prevention materials for the development of Xinye textile. The above said, the company's high grade spinning and weaving composite nonwoven production line is not only used for mask production, but also can be used in many fields such as environmental protection, hygiene, medical treatment and so on. At present, this material is used widely, and global demand has been a trend of rapid growth. Before the outbreak, the protection consciousness of the public in China was relatively weak. The application scenarios of masks and other protective devices were mostly used in hospitals, but seldom used by ordinary people. But after this epidemic, I believe that the public's awareness of health protection will also increase, and the market demand in the future will gradually increase.

The joint defense and joint control mechanism of the State Council held a press conference in March 4th. Cao Xuejun, deputy director of the Department of consumer goods industry of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said that at present, the epidemic has emerged in many countries around the world, and there is a shortage of protective clothing. China is a big producer of protective clothing. We encourage domestic protective clothing production enterprises to actively meet the needs of foreign countries and standardize the production and export according to the corresponding standards.