The Weakness Of Polyester Filament Fundamentals Is Not Sustainable.

In late January, with the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in China, the decline in China's crude oil demand triggered a sharp decline in international crude oil prices, coupled with an increase in US crude oil inventories, making oil prices lingering at the bottom. In recent days, Saudi Arabia advocated that the expansion of production cuts may be the decisive factor affecting the oil price next year, and suggested a reduction of 1 million 200 thousand barrels per day. Cut production "suspense" affects the market nerves, and the international crude oil bottoms up.

Crude oil, as a crude oil product in polyester market, has a cost driving effect on polyester products. When crude oil rebounding, polyester filament follows closely, and the bottom is rebounded.

On the morning of 4, the explosion of the ethylene cracking plant in the south of Zhongnan Xishan was intense, and no casualties were reported. It is reported that the plant involved ethylene production capacity of 1 million 100 thousand tons, propylene production capacity of 550 thousand tons, butadiene 190 thousand tons, styrene 580 thousand tons, MEG73 million tons.

The explosion of South Korea's chemical plant has strengthened confidence in the price rise of some polyester fibers. The polyester filament has finally risen after falling.

The price is up!!

On the 3 day, some polyester mainstream manufacturers took the lead in raising prices, among them: another big factory in Tongxiang, polyester FDY increased by 50-100; Jiangsu's mainstream factory FDY rose 100.

On the 4 th, some mainstream manufacturers continued to raise the focus of their quotations. Among them: the FDY of Shaoxing factory rose by 50; the DTY of a factory in Zhejiang increased by 50; and that of another plant in the Zhejiang rose 50-100.

Specific manufacturers: Tong Kun rose 100-150; Heng Yi rose 50-100; new Feng Ming rose 50-100; Rongsheng rose 50-100; Sheng Hong part of the specifications rose 100.

On the 5 th, some mainstream manufacturers continued to increase their quotations. Among them, another big factory in Tongxiang was FDY, DTY rose 50-100; Shaoxing factory FDY rose 50-100; Shaoxing another factory FDY rose 50-100; Zhejiang another factory polyester polyester rose 50-100 individually.

Although the price of some polyester has been rising for several days, there seems to be a trend of "overturn", but we must not forget that the fundamentals of polyester are still not satisfactory.

Polyester filament is weak in fundamentals and still has no market price.

From the beginning of the Spring Festival, the upstream polyester factories are still running at a high load, and the polyester is continuously producing, but the market is heading for the new crown epidemic. This "black swan", the downstream weaving manufacturer will delay the opening time from eight of the original early month to January 10th, and the vast majority of factories will open after January 21st. However, due to the lack of workers, the factory's start-up rate is seriously insufficient, according to the statistics of China's silk net. Data show that, in the first time of opening, the weaving machine's start-up rate is only about 25-30%.

Due to the serious shortage of start-up rate, weaving companies had more or less stockpiling raw materials more than a year ago, and affected by the epidemic, orders had not been centralized before, so the demand for raw polyester filament was reduced. With the continuous storage of stocks, but the demand is insufficient, the price of polyester has been on the down track, resulting in a "price free market" situation.

Compared with the price of polyester years ago, polyester filament FDY 150D decreased by 575 yuan / ton, POY 150D dropped by 620 yuan / ton, and DTY 150D dropped by 500 yuan / ton.

Why does the current round of polyester rise? In addition to the booster of crude oil and the explosion of factories in South Korea, the price of polyester may also contain hype.

speculation

For polyester filament, the current stock has been "skyrocketing", and at this stage of the situation, the pressure to go to the library is not small, and now the price can be said that it is very difficult to reduce the space, which is also very difficult for polyester manufacturers. Now suddenly there is a hot spot, taking advantage of a wave price, stabilizing the current situation of polyester, may also help late inventory.

How long can the price rise?

Maybe only a few days, maybe a little longer, but the price of polyester is going to keep rising for a long time. It's a bit hard for the current situation.

Stock

As far as polyester itself is concerned, it is its own inventory problem. According to the statistics of China's silk net, the overall stock market of polyester market is concentrated in 32-42 days. In terms of specific products, POY stocks are stored for 26-32 days, FDY stocks are close to 27-33 days, while DTY stocks are about 33-42 days.

The stock of polyester can be said to have reached the high level in recent years, and it is difficult to stock effectively in a short time.

PTA

As the main raw material of polyester filament, PTA has cost support for polyester filament. However, PTA has been declining since the second half of last year, especially in the late phase of the resumption of work. Up to now, the price of PTA is about 4230 yuan / ton, compared with the previous year, it dropped by 570 yuan / ton, or nearly 12%.

PTA's social inventory is currently near 2 million 344 thousand tons, and high inventory is one of the important factors to drag down its price. From the inventory point of view, the price of PTA in the future market is still likely to fall. The instability of PTA price naturally makes it difficult to form effective support for polyester filament.

Weaving

As for weaving, the starting rate of weaving enterprises has improved significantly, reaching 7 percent. However, due to the outbreak of the epidemic, the inventory of clothing industry is again overloaded, and the spring loading is serious, and the rate of return is not high, which also has an impact on weaving enterprises. On the other hand, the epidemic is now breaking out around the world and has an impact on the export of textiles.

Although weaving enterprises are placing orders in succession, at present, the start-up rate has not reached the same level in the past, and there are still many uncertainties in the order. In the later stage, the situation of overcapacity will be repeated. Therefore, most of the demand for raw materials for weaving enterprises is still on the sidelines.

Some of the polyester filament has taken advantage of this price increase, in fact, "very reluctance". However, whether or not the rally can be maintained depends on whether all factors are strongly supported. Looking at the current situation, the epidemic began to spread around the world, causing a certain impact on the export of textile and clothing, coupled with the poor sales of terminal clothing in the spring, and the serious backlog of goods. For a time, the transmission to weaving could be unspeakable, weaving was bad, and there was a direct negative effect on polyester.