Influence Of Epidemic Situation On Cotton Consumption

In the early April, the number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the world exceeded 1 million. Affected by the epidemic, global production activities can not be carried out normally, the overall consumption ability of the society has been reduced, and the mobility of personnel has been greatly restricted. The impact of the epidemic on the global economy can not be ignored. As the world's largest exporter of goods, China's overseas epidemic is bound to have a negative impact on exports.

Throughout the epidemic, domestic outbreaks began in late 1, and the impact on export orders has lasted for nearly 3 months. Orders fell in 1-2 months, including 1-2 in textile and clothing exports in the same period last year, down 20%. With the outbreak of overseas outbreaks, the export data fell or did not reach a peak. In March, exports of textile products continued to decline significantly.

? ? ? To this end, China's cotton net reporter consulted a foreign trade enterprise in Shandong, and learned that the loss of export orders had been temporarily canceled. It is inevitable that the export of finished products has been actively promoted to stock in the domestic market, and the production of foreign orders has basically taken measures to stop production and reduce production, and will not seize the domestic market at the time of loss pressure. This also means the export order of spun garments. The amount of single entry into the domestic market is actually limited, and it is considered that the 1-3 month has already been processed without sales. Moreover, because of the habitual trading mode between the upstream and downstream enterprises and the familiar old customer orders, it is not easy for foreign trade enterprises to carry out sales in the domestic market.

The sales and marketing situation of domestic enterprises is also not optimistic. The head of a textile enterprise in Henan told reporters that in the downstream products sold, only the grey cloth kept the characteristics of "gold, silver and silver four", compared with the sales of cotton yarn, there were still small profits. Nevertheless, it can not withstand the pace of the closure of most small and medium-sized enterprises under the economic impact. It is understood that since the resumption of domestic textile enterprises, it has been faced with the trouble of personnel being unable to reach the designated position, plus a large number of loss varieties, shutting down production enterprises, and the start-up rate of enterprises that have started construction has been reduced. It is generally indicated that the purchase amount of raw materials for cotton has been reduced by 30-40% compared with usual. After consulting the brokers who were responsible for the sale of cotton in the upper reaches of the river, this was also confirmed.

Conservatively estimated that the comprehensive temporary suspension enterprises and the textile enterprises that started production but reduced production should reduce the procurement of cotton raw materials by an average of 50%. Until the end of the epidemic, the month of impact on the reduction of 50% raw material purchases was 3 months. According to the national cotton market monitoring system, the cotton consumption per month in 2018/19 was 7 million 988 thousand and 300 tons, and the monthly average cotton consumption was roughly 660 thousand tons. According to the above estimated data, rough calculation shows that the cotton consumption during the epidemic period is reduced by at least 66*3* (1-50%) =99 million tons.

The day when the epidemic situation improves is the time when cotton consumption rises. With the rapid development of the epidemic in Europe and the United States, countries are entering the critical period of epidemic prevention and control. Zhong Nan Shan, an academician of Chinese Academy of engineering and an expert in respiratory diseases, said in March 27th that if the measures could be implemented strictly, the European cases would be expected to peak in the coming week, and the global epidemic control in April is expected to be effective. But the recovery of social economy is delayed. The growth of cotton consumption is expected to start in 5-6 this year. It is hard to say whether it will return to the usual cotton consumption level.