Impact Of The Epidemic On Medical Investment: Short Term Investment To See Demand, Medium To Long Term Shift To Critical Care Medicine

In the past March, under the downward trend of the market, the biopharmaceutical sector was catching the eye. CITIC medical index rose 1.26% in the whole month, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 7.90 percentage points. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the market has been rising steadily, and many investors are "eager to move".

Liu Mulong, an executive partner of fairy pupil capital, told the twenty-first Century economic analysis reporter that domestic investment opportunities brought by the epidemic situation can be divided into two stages, one is short-term investment, the other is long-term investment.

Part of the short-term investment is mainly for masks and other protective products and some diagnostic products. For the investors in the two tier market, the best chance to intervene is over. The market of these products is easy and short term. The medium and long term investment opportunities are mainly concentrated in the field of critical care medicine. Some heavy life support and alternative life support devices, such as ECMO, which have not been paid attention to in the domestic market, such as ECMO, have attracted the attention of medical and health investment, making these areas the potential to "extend mid and long-term investment opportunities at least 5 years or more".

Spring of pharmaceutical sector investment

Affected by the epidemic, since the beginning of this year, the pharmaceutical sector has caught the eye.

Since the beginning of the year, the segments of the industry have dropped, and the pharmaceutical sector has been rising at the upstream level of each sub sector. With the CITIC industry index, the index of the pharmaceutical sector has risen 8.22% since the beginning of this year, which has outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 18.24 percentage points, ranking second in 29 first tier industries, and only after the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors. In the past March, biological products and chemical raw materials increased significantly by 7% and 5.1% respectively, while medical devices, medical business and chemical preparations rose by 3.6%, 2% and 1.2% respectively. In March, the pharmaceutical sector rose by more than 28% in the first 15 months. The growth attributes of biological products and medical devices are still promising. Haitong Securities pointed out that the valuation of the pharmaceutical sector will fluctuate at a historical high level.

In the short term, the domestic epidemic is stabilizing, while the epidemic curve is rising. Everbright Securities believes that under the background of the continuing spread of overseas epidemic, we can focus on three types of demand driven, cost driven and domestic alternative companies in the pharmaceutical sector.

The continued spread of the overseas epidemic has directly stimulated the purchase of overseas medical equipment. The demand driven enterprises' business has greatly increased, and the demand for respirators, medical masks, gloves and kits has continued to surge. However, the transportation sector of various countries is relatively stagnant, and the demand for oil from industry and civilian will drop sharply, which will benefit the cost driven enterprises with high proportion of raw materials and products. The spread of overseas epidemic also makes some raw materials short supply in the short run. Raw material prices and industry transfer to the domestic market, such as API, blood products, CXO and so on, domestic manufacturers take advantage of the advantages of production capacity to seize the market quickly, and realize the volume and price rise in a short time to enhance market share.

In addition, the epidemic is also expected to accelerate the pace of import substitution of domestic medical devices. At present, the domestic import substitution is still in the primary stage, mainly replacing the low technology content instruments. Only after the increase of corporate income will there be higher R & D input, thus making the import substitution continue.

Long term demand change

During the epidemic period, although the overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector was gratifying, there was "joy and worry" in the sector, both of which had a rise in corporate performance and a decline in performance. In March, a total of 121 stocks rose in the pharmaceutical sector, while 175 stocks fell on the decline list. Investment also needs to see clearly the opportunity, the short-term investment opportunity is fleeting, and the long term investment plate immediately transfers.

Liu Mulong told the twenty-first Century economic news reporter that the medical sector benefited from the epidemic, and that the whole medical sector would have a longer business cycle. But we always have a mind in mind. No matter whether the epidemic ends at the end of two years or even ends in three years, it will all end.

Lin Cunye, chairman of Sunrui investment, once told the media that investors need to take a rational view of the performance change of pharmaceutical stocks. They can not simply judge the quality of a company because of its quarterly increase or decrease. During the epidemic period, investors can analyze the basic aspects of pharmaceutical companies from four situations.

The first is a company that benefits from the epidemic and performance, and will continue to grow in the future.

? ? The second one is a company that gains a one-time benefit due to the epidemic. The company is basically a variety of consumables enterprises, such as masks, body guns, protective clothing, inspection consumables or auxiliary drugs, including traditional Chinese medicine and blood products. The short-term performance is undoubtedly increasing, but it remains to be tested for a long time. Some companies are benefiting from some products, but the sales volume of other products is obvious. The slide. For example, a number of testing companies, nucleic acid testing products at the same time, the majority of departments in the hospital stopped diagnosis, other testing projects will also cause greater losses.

The third is short-term damaged but long-term logic unchanged companies, such products and related businesses have the necessary rigid demand, the epidemic will gradually redress after remission, at present, only the income delay.

The fourth is the severely damaged and recovering company that is slower than expected. The market demand of such companies is still strong, but because of the on-site service type, if it is not particularly urgent, the business recovery process will be relatively slow, and the past valuation has been on the high side.

The industry generally believes that the medical industry will continue to be the focus of capital long-term layout. Innovative drugs, gene detection, cancer treatment, immunotherapy and other industries related to technological progress will be areas of long-term concern for capital. However, at present, the short-term valuation in the pharmaceutical sector is likely to increase. But in the long run, whether or not some of the projects will continue is still a problem. In the short term, the industry with "hot spots" rising momentum may lack the power of long-term development.

Moreover, some industries still have difficulties in restricting development. Taking online medical care as an example, although the outbreak of online demand has concentrated on the outbreak, the industry has been increasing rapidly, but the conversion rate of internet medical payment users is still low, and the mode of burning money has not yet been released. How to break the situation is still a problem faced by the whole industry collectively.

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