First Quarter Bad Luck Around The Two Quarter Of Hardship PTA Continuation Low Trend

"How much worry can you ask? It's like a river flowing to the East. Such worries continued from the first quarter to the two quarter, and did not bring hope to people's expectations. In the first quarter, the PTA market was surrounded by bad profits, good and absent, and the word went through the whole market. In the two quarter, the PTA market was caught in clouds, and it was still hard to see the rainbow. The bad luck of the Spring Festival holiday is short, and the fermentation of global public health events is the main fuse. The Domino effect of international crude oil is PTA The market is fully fermented.

Bad first quarter

In the first quarter, the severity of public health events exceeded expectations and expanded to the whole world. The demand for downstream factories has been slow to recover, and the strain of logistics has been almost interrupted locally, resulting in a temporary delay in demand. In the middle and later stage, some enterprises responded to the government's call and produced as much as possible, resulting in a significant increase in inventory pressure. In addition, the human resources in terms of emotional prudence, production, logistics and sales are also more intense than before, which adds a lot of variables to the recovery market that should have emerged.

In addition, the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia has stirred up waves again. stay Three Beginning of the month Russia and OPEC No agreement was reached on the new reduction plan. The "boat of friendship" said that the international crude oil prices plummeted, while domestic chemical products all plummeted and almost kept low. PTA The market is hard to escape "Curse", prices have repeatedly bottomed out.

chart 1 PTA Current price comparison chart

Source: lung Chung

Closing month Thirty-one Day, PTA Price closed Three thousand one hundred and thirty-five element / Tons, down by the same period last year. 52.50% 。 Closing price of futures contract closed at Three thousand two hundred and twenty-two element / Tons, down by the same period last year. 50.46% 。

chart 2 PTA Actual demand load trend chart

Source: lung Chung

By diagram Two It can be seen that entering One Month PTA The structure of the storehouse is beginning to show a sharp corner. With the influence of holidays, some enterprises in the lower reaches enter the state of overhaul, and the scissors gap between supply and demand begins to split up. Subsequently, the fermentation of public health incidents, the downstream from the pressure of inventory, some enterprises began to reduce production and reduce the burden, and the contradiction between supply and demand in advance entered the "late spring cold". Four point five five Ten thousand tons.

After entering March, in Fuhai Chuang, Hengli Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Three Several sets of large devices such as the number line have entered maintenance, and the polyester load has picked up. According to actual demand load, supply and demand are in equilibrium. However, after several sets of equipment overhaul, supply and demand once again entered the freezing period, and the escalation of contradictions intensified. According to long Zhong information measurement, PTA supply reached 11 million 360 thousand tons in the first quarter, the demand was 9 million 670 thousand tons, and the storage capacity was as high as 1 million 690 thousand tons.

chart 3 PTA Processing fee chart

Source: lung Chung

The average processing fee of PTA in the first quarter was 536.89 yuan / ton, which was at the margin of profit and loss. In terms of 2 million tons of equipment, the processing fee still has room for profit, but for millions of tons of equipment, the profit is not optimistic, and some enterprises are not excluded.

On the whole, the PTA market in the first quarter, especially in March, has been continuously expanded by the public health events in Europe and the United States. The export orders in the weaving market have shrunk dramatically, and the cancellation of orders has been common. This has led to the suspension of demand for raw materials by downstream enterprises. At the same time, weaving enterprises also have short plans to stop, and the PTA market is undoubtedly worse. The whole market is in a state of low price, high profit, high inventory and low demand.

Difficulties and dangers in the two quarter

At present, PTA social inventory has reached a high level of 3 million 200 thousand tons. In the current high inventory and high profit situation, the PTA variables in the two quarter are too large. Now the PTA plant maintenance is not entirely clear. It is estimated that the PTA storage in the two quarter is still at 140-150 million tons. However, if there is a turning point in the late market, the PTA processing fee will be suppressed. When the profit falls down, the PTA factory will not be forced to stop.

In terms of polyester, the promotion of Qingming Festival brought warmth to the factory, and the inventory of finished products dropped sharply. According to long Zhong statistics, as of April 7th, POY inventory was about 7.5 days, FDY was about 11.5 days, DTY was about 20.5 days, and even some of the lower enterprises were in an empty state. As a result, the polyester plant has gone through a wave of storehouse, and the production variables in the early stage of the production plan are too large, or the production reduction plan has been cancelled. However, in view of the current supply and demand, the way to the library is still "long way to go".

In the two quarter, we still need to pay close attention to the following points: first, control of global public health events; two, OPEC's negotiations on +4 9. The ferment of global public health incidents has brought a marked decline in demand to the market. The convening of OPEC + emergency conference has touched the hearts of millions of people in the industry. Even if a reduction agreement can be reached, the market has been expecting, stimulating or limited last week. If there is no agreement or reduction in output is less than expected, prices will continue to fall or adjust.

On the whole, At present, there is no turning point in global public health events, and economic trauma is hard to recover in the short term. The domestic market is in a slow recovery process. Long Zhong information expects no significant improvement in the two quarter. PTA Market continuation of low trend, temporarily difficult to spring.