Zheng Cotton Market Range Oscillation Mainly

Since the Sino US trade negotiations, the trend of the cotton textile market is mainly affected by demand side factors. The partial transfer of orders and caution in the Sino US trade negotiations are the main reasons leading to the continuous decline of commodity prices in the whole industrial chain for more than a year. The current epidemic has a more serious impact on demand side. It is understood that before the Spring Festival, Sino US trade relations improved, textile enterprises orders more, the market bullish atmosphere, especially in the first half of January, the domestic cotton spot price linkage increased. In mid January, Zheng cotton futures and spot hit a new high this year. Zheng cotton main contract reached 14450 yuan / ton, and the average price of spot cotton (3128B) reached 13941 yuan / ton.

However, affected by public health emergencies in China, the textile enterprises started to delay 7 to 30 days after the start of the holiday. Some foreign trade orders were transferred, and domestic demand was suppressed. After the start of the textile industry, the preprocessing orders were dominated by the processing enterprises, and the follow-up order was not enough. In March, foreign public health events broke out, and the main export areas of textiles and clothing in China, such as the United States, Japan and South Korea, the European Union and many other countries and organizations, adopted restrictive measures. Foreign trade orders were gradually reduced and returned, and the domestic consumer market began to slow down. The subsequent orders of textile enterprises were insufficient, and the production was limited in April. In the case of sharp drop in demand, textile enterprises lack the risk hedging operation, and the disorderly price war is becoming more and more fierce. 1 cotton prices began to fall in the second half of the month, and the lowest price of zhengmian's main contract fell to 9935 yuan / ton, and spot cotton price dropped to 11411 yuan / ton. In the first quarter, the maximum fluctuation rate of zhengmian main contract was 31.56%, and the maximum fluctuation range of lint spot price was 18.15%.

Downstream, under the continuous impact of foreign public health events, it is expected that the "cotton market" will usher in the "pre dawn darkness" in April and May. In the absence of futures hedging operation, the "naked" textile enterprises are in a disorderly price war, and the cotton yarn price is still expected to fall by an interval of 1000 yuan / ton. A single or single production or general phenomenon, textile enterprises start load or significantly lower than the same period of history, the loss of enterprises will continue to expand, weak enterprises or risk of being eliminated, industry consolidation efforts to increase demand for cotton will continue to slump.

At present, Zheng cotton is at a historical low. According to the author's investigation, some speculative funds are intended to copy the bottom. Some textile enterprises also intend to establish cotton reserves near 10000 yuan mark, and Zheng cotton has limited space to fall. In addition, African locusts have come back again. The strong wind weather in Xinjiang during the planting season is not conducive to cotton growth. The favorable supply side factors gradually accumulate, superposing the turning point of European public health events. It is expected that the latter will be oscillating in the 10000 - 12000 yuan / ton interval. At present, foreign trade orders are absent, domestic trade orders are recovering slowly, cotton yarn trend is still weaker than cotton, textile enterprises can try to use Zheng cotton and Zheng cotton yarn futures to strengthen risk hedging. According to the author's understanding, at present, the price of 32 pure cotton yarn has dropped to 18500 yuan / ton, while the price of Zheng cotton yarn 2009 contract is still around 19000 yuan / ton. In addition, the raw materials of new cotton into the planting season, textile enterprises can try more cotton, empty cotton yarn arbitrage, beware of capital speculation weather pull up cotton.