In The First Quarter, The Performance Of Hotels Is Down, Leading Companies Are Going Against The Background To Speed Up The Pace Of Integration.

The impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the first quarter caused the domestic hotel industry to enter "cold winter".

Under the nests, the leading enterprises in the domestic hotel industry have not been spared. In April 20th, the first brigade Hotel announced its performance forecast and expected a loss in the first quarter. Previously, Hua Hua group said it expects net income to decline in the first quarter of this year.

In fact, for the domestic hotel industry, in recent years, the industry boom continued downward trend, has already put a lot of pressure on the hotel groups, and the epidemic is further amplifying the industry plight.

However, under the "cold winter", leading enterprises are expected to usher in an integrated opportunity.

The Matthew effect

"Without the impact of the epidemic, the domestic hotel industry has also entered a downturn in the industry cycle." A hotel analyst who declined to be named told the twenty-first Century business news reporter that the demand for domestic hotel industry in recent years has been disadvantaged by the impact of economic fluctuations, and the industry boom has declined.

The report released by the foresight Industry Research Institute shows that in 2011, the growth rate of China's hotel industry market scale was 17.19%, but after 2012, the growth rate dropped sharply and was at a low level. In 2019, the figure fell to 2.72%.

The operation data of leading enterprises can reflect this situation more concretely.

In 2019, the annual revenue of Jinjiang hotels, Hua Hua group and first brigade Hotel decreased or slowed down. At the same time, the overall RevPAR of the three hotels group (the single room income in the camp hotel) continued to decline in the fourth quarter.

According to the operating data, Jinjiang hotels, Hua Hua group and first brigade Hotel achieved operating income of 15 billion 99 million yuan, 11 billion 212 million yuan and 8 billion 311 million yuan respectively last year, up 2.73%, 11.42% and 2.67% respectively. Among them, Jinjiang Hotel and Hua Ju group's business revenue growth slowed down last year, 5.48 percentage points and 10.87 percentage points less than that in 2018, while the first brigade hotel was the first time in the past three years that revenue had shrunk.

In the overall RevPAR (domestic hotel), the data of Jinjiang hotels, Hua Hua group and first brigade hotel in the fourth quarter of 2019 were 155 yuan / 194, 194 yuan / 151 yuan, respectively, representing a decrease of 2.3%, 3.1% and 4.2% respectively. In this regard, the analysis of Soochow Securities believes that "in 2019, the industry boom continued downward, leading hotels and stores RevPAR declined year-on-year, while the expansion of the same store declined, leading the hotel's overall RevPAR also showed a downward trend, and the decline is still expanding."

If we say that in recent years, the macroeconomic impact of the hotel industry has entered the "cycle bottom", then the new crown pneumonia epidemic this year will accelerate the bottom of the operation of the hotel industry.

According to the latest performance forecast issued by the first brigade Hotel, the company expects to lose 505 million yuan to 542 million yuan in the first quarter of this year. Hua Hua group had predicted that the net income in the first quarter of this year dropped by 15% to 20%, and for the first time it did not provide the guideline for 2020 for the whole year. When Jinjiang Hotel responded to investors in the near future, it said, "the new crown epidemic has brought the business to the hotel industry in the short run. Adverse effects of camps and expansion. "

Cyclical bottom overlay epidemic impact, the hotel business turning point to be observed. However, under the "cold winter", leading enterprises are expected to usher in an integrated opportunity.

The above analysts told the twenty-first Century business news reporter that the advantage of the franchising hotel was reflected in the epidemic. The deterioration of the operating environment led to the expansion of the leading hotels, which will further promote the industry shuffling and centralization.

In recent years, the domestic hotel group has transformed from hotel operation to brand management and output. Behind this is the expansion mode of the domestic hotel group's continuous implementation. In 2019, Jinjiang Hotel, Hua Hua group and first brigade Hotel completed the exhibition target. Business data show that Jinjiang hotels and China Life Group opened 1617 new stores last year, 1715, overfulfilled the annual target, and the first brigade hotel opened 829 new stores to achieve the start of the year.

Northeast Securities Analysis believes that the impact of the 2020 epidemic on the hotel group's short-term performance is inevitable, and the chain rate is expected to accelerate after the winter.

Is the turning point coming?

"Hotels (industry recovery) still need their real market." Sun Jian, general manager of the first brigade Hotel, believes that the biggest challenge of the hotel industry is the lack of mobility, and the risk of many cities is gradually decreasing, and local consumption is recovering. However, the tourism and leisure industry is mainly the off-site consumers, and there are still many obstacles to the consumption of different places.

Sun Jian said that the first brigade hotel has entered the "self rescue" state. It is reported that the company has taken various measures in its operation to launch products that fit in with the market, such as "peace of mind", and make full use of all preferential policies of the government. At the same time, efforts should be made to reduce operating costs and minimize the losses to the epidemic.

Up to now, more than 90% of the hotels belonging to the first brigade hotel have resumed their business operations, of which the rentying rate of Home Inn's resumption shop has reached 65%.

Jinjiang hotels and Hua Hua group are also reinventing the past business. In twenty-first Century, the economic news reporter learned that the two hotel groups, together with franchisees, should jointly cope with the impact of the epidemic by reducing the franchise fee and issuing loan preferential policies. Among them, Hua Hua Group has 100% to resume work, its full brand opening rate exceeds 90%, occupancy rate of more than 60%.

The analysts told the twenty-first Century business reporter that in fact, with the improvement of macroeconomic data last year, the bottom of the cyclical industry has arrived. Although the outbreak has caused the hotel industry to face difficulties, the hotel industry is expected to take the lead in the wake of various policy stimulus and consumer demand.

Twenty-first Century economic news reporter learned that rigid demand for business travel has become a major support for the short term recovery of the hotel industry. Liu Weiqian, general manager of the overseas operations center of The Greens Hotel tourism group, said in an interview with the twenty-first Century economic report reporter that the demand from travel will become the first customer group to return to normal track under the influence of the epidemic.

Soochow securities also pointed out that due to the impact of the epidemic, it is expected that domestic hotel industry performance indicators will continue downward in the first quarter. The second quarter is expected to shrink as business travel demand is warmer, and business turning points will appear in the second half of the year.

In addition, peripheral tourism spawned off-site consumption is expected to give another impetus to the revival of the hotel industry.

In April 21st, Ctrip group released the "2020 may" tourism consumption new trend big data forecast report (hereinafter referred to as the "report") shows that this year's "51" tourism consumption characteristics will be very distinct, local tourism, the surrounding tourism into the mainstream.

Affected by the epidemic, the current inter provincial, long-distance and overseas tours still face some restrictions. But in twenty-first Century, the economic report reporter learned that the local entertainment products on the Ctrip platform, "4 days, 3 Nights", "3 days and 2 Nights" had significantly increased the volume of search and bookings with the tour around the group.

It is worth noting that passenger travel pays more attention to quality, and the search volume and sales of high-end products increase significantly. According to Ctrip, Hotels with high star rated hotels are obviously more popular, and the proportion of four-star and 5 star hotels is 55%.

This means that Jinjiang hotels, Hua Ju group, first brigade Hotel and other hotel businesses that are constantly upgrading the proportion of high-end and high-end hotels are expected to benefit from the new needs arising from the upgrading of tourism quality.

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