Negative Oil Prices, Polyester Bottle Market Can Reach The Lowest?

Monday's WTI crude futures contract closed at -37.63 U.S. dollars / barrel on May. With the downside of PTA and MEG futures, the cost side of PET bottle will support collapse, and domestic terminal demand recovery is slow. Most downstream processing enterprises have high inventory of raw materials, and the industry is more bearish on next week's market. Some even think that the market will fall back to the low level of 5100 yuan / ton at the end of March.

First of all, let's take a look at the major negative factors in the near future.

1. The output of downstream drinks is not as good as that of the same period.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, the output of domestic beverages in March 2020 was 13 million 842 thousand tons, down 653 thousand tons compared with the same period last year. In April, with the resumption of beverage enterprises across the country, the number of migrant workers is in place, and the output of beverage will increase slightly. However, due to the impact of public health events, there is no obvious improvement in terminal consumption: the tourism industry is mainly driven by the surrounding self driving, and the major colleges and universities are far away from school. So far, many provinces in China only have senior three, and junior high school students have started their studies smoothly. Other grades depend on the actual situation. Scale meetings will be held online, to avoid excessive concentration of staff. Overseas health incidents escalated, overseas imported cases continued to increase, and local outbreak risks remained. Under such circumstances, consumption of soft drinks was greatly reduced.

2, the domestic market supply will continue to improve in the near future.

As can be seen from the above picture, after entering the March, the polyester bottle industry started and the overall supply increased steadily. This is mainly due to the successful operation of Chongqing wankai 600 thousand ton plant at the end of March. Dalian Yisheng two phase 350 thousand ton plant was put into operation in early April, and a 600 thousand ton plant was restarted in early April. The total output increased by 4000 tons / day. Later, Hainan Yisheng 500 thousand ton plant was planned to go into operation at the end of the two quarter.

3. raw material PTA "days" inventory is difficult to digest.

The high processing fee has driven the PTA industry to start and output at a historical high level, and the daily storage capacity has reached more than 10000 tons. Polyester products, due to the impact of overseas health events, the demand for filament and slicing terminal demand decreased significantly, and the industry started less than the same period. Polyester staple fiber, with the non-woven specifications heat fade, polyester staple fiber back to the fundamentals, prices will shock down, the industry is facing a certain degree of overhaul. PET bottle Market in May and June in the traditional peak season, the industry started or maintained high. It is difficult to sustain the development of the bottle industry alone, and with the low level of crude oil shocks, PTA's daily inventory consumption is slow and the resistance is heavy.

Overall, the PET bottle market has a strong pessimism, and the above negative factors suppress the trend of the market. As the provinces will resume high speed charges in May 1st, the downstream stock will be launched this week. However, due to the market turning point is not yet present, the industry is more cautious and wait-and-see. In the face of late freight increase and May Day holiday, next week or suitable stock. Consider the uncertain factors such as crude oil and so on. Do not deposit the bottom mentality.