Is The "Oil Price" Rising Sharply Or Is It A Good Recovery?

Recently, with the relief of Xinguan epidemic situation, some countries began to "unseal" in an orderly manner, and the global economy was pressed to restart the key! The hope of economic restart also led to a sharp rise in oil prices. On Tuesday, oil prices completed the fifth consecutive day of rising trend, the longest consecutive rise since July last year.

Boosted by the continuous rise of crude oil, downstream and terminal factories began to concentrate on replenishment. The production and sales volume of polyester filament factories reached the recent peak on May 4. The average production and sales data of domestic polyester filament factories reached 285.7%, an increase of 226.2% compared with the last day before the festival (April 30).

The May Day holiday of a mainstream factory in Shengze, Jiangsu Province, has increased by 300-600; the May Day holiday of a major polyester factory in Tongxiang has increased by 100-550; the DTY holiday of a factory in Zhejiang Province has increased by 250-350; the polyester holiday of another factory in Xiaoshan has increased by 350-450. There are even some polyester factories sold to the closed plate.

As for PTA, as of 15:00 on May 6, PTA futures 2009 contract closed at 3500 points, up 80 points, or 2.34%, from the previous trading day.

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As for ethylene glycol, as of 15:00 on May 6, the glycol futures 2009 contract closed at 3697 points, up 69 points or 1.9% from the previous trading day.

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In terms of production and sales, on May 4, affected by the news of rising prices of raw materials, the production and sales of polyester once reached nearly 300%, and some polyester manufacturers directly sold them to closed plates. On May 6, the average production and sales of polyester reached about 160%.

This is a good news for the textile market! From the upstream chemical fiber raw material market to the downstream grey fabric market, recently presents a busy scene. But there are many people who question whether there is abnormal market fluctuation?

Industry insiders analyze that with the recent market optimism for economic restart dominating, which helps to promote the recovery of crude oil demand and support oil prices in a short time. Although countries gradually lift the blockade measures, there are more and more signs that the global economic recovery may be a long process. Most analysts believe it will take at least a year to return to pre epidemic consumption levels, and some even doubt that this will happen. In the United States, as states reopen, the risk of a second wave cannot be underestimated.

At the same time, as the most basic raw material of polyester products, the price of crude oil almost doubled, which naturally led to the rise of various products in the downstream polyester industry chain. According to statistics, on the 6th, Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester trading atmosphere continued to be hot, with production and sales at 60%, 200%, 250%, 150%, 200% and 300%. On the 7th, the transaction atmosphere of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester fiber dropped significantly. The production and sales of mainstream large factories were mostly at the level of 30-50%, some of the better factories were around 80%, and some of them could reach 150%.

An owner of a weaving enterprise with 300 water jet looms revealed: "a lot of polyester has been prepared these two days, about 2 million yuan. Since late April, all stocks of polyester taff and chunyafang have been cleared. Now, these two kinds of grey fabrics are mainly produced on the machine. The raw materials of polyester are in short supply, and the prices have been rising recently. Therefore, we have to prepare more to cope with the sudden price increase. "

However, since 2020, due to the impact of the global market environment, the prices of many domestic chemical fiber raw materials have declined to varying degrees in recent years. Although the prices of some raw materials have risen, from the perspective of the development of the application field, the price rising belongs to emergency products.

Some manufacturers, not only did not raise prices because of the rise in raw materials, but sold at low prices. This is mainly because the stock of grey cloth of most varieties is still high, and the market demand for grey cloth has little change. In the face of such a dilemma, price increase is not the key point, and de stocking is the first task. Therefore, when the price of raw materials rises and market confidence recovers, selling goods will achieve a better effect of de stocking.

Some experts pointed out that although the downstream market has begun to warm up, compared with the normal situation, the current weaving Market is still in the situation of oversupply, and the current situation of high stock and accumulated stock of grey fabric has not been fundamentally reversed. In such a case, the situation of weaving enterprises may increase, and once this happens, it will be a big blow to the inventory of polyester factory and polyester filament.

In addition, the production and marketing of polyester fiber has appeared the market of "one-day tour". Some people in the industry pointed out that this is naked speculation, but it is a way to activate the market atmosphere needed by the whole industrial chain, which will drive the demand of each link. But if you want to stimulate the terminal clothing business through such news, it seems that there is still a lack of enthusiasm. In addition, according to the experience of the past years, the impact of the price increase of chemical fiber raw materials and grey cloth on garment manufacturers is not very big. And this year is in such a special period, there is no actual demand for price speculation are "playing rogue"!

It is better to enter the market in May. After all, the reduction of oil producers and the combined reduction of OPEC + production, together with the partial recovery of oil demand, the international crude oil, which is the most upstream of the industrial chain, has a positive short-term release, which has a certain support for the price of polyester raw materials and even polyester filament. But in the right amount of stock, at the same time, more attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil and polyester fiber and the recovery of foreign trade.