A Second Tier Market Rebound Significantly, The Property Market "Little Spring" Came Late

Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the "spring" of the property market in 2020 is coming late.

Just past the May 1 holiday, the hot one and second tier property market has strong recovery momentum. With the gradual release of depressed demand during the epidemic period, except for a few cities such as Wuhan, most of the hot city commercial housing transactions scale is higher than the same period in previous years. Among them, influenced by the new policy of Xicheng District education reform, Beijing's second-hand housing transaction has seen a rise in volume and price.

This trend has come to light in the past two months. With the gradual control of the outbreak of new crown pneumonia, most cities have resumed work in the middle and late 3 months, and land transactions, construction sites and sales offices have been opened at this time. By April, the daily production and operation activities of the real estate industry have basically recovered.

Supply recovery, coupled with the release of demand, is commonly seen in the "small spring" of the property market between March and May, and is not really open until late April of this year. The delayed extension of this hot spot is likely to make the market structure different this year.

"The market in 5 and June is too important." A Fujian housing company official told the twenty-first Century economic report that enterprises must seize the opportunity to quench their thirst. Otherwise, when the cash flow weakens for several months, "developers will lose their initiative".

Market recovery

The rise of the current market is due to the gradual control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, but behind this policy driven factors can not be ignored.

At the early stage of the outbreak, government departments at all levels issued relevant rationalization policies, such as the delay in land leasing and the delayed payment of taxes and fees. By April, the policy began to work at both ends of supply and demand, stressing both increasing supply and stimulating demand.

Central Plains real estate statistics show that in 1-4 months of this year, the total number of real estate regulation policies was 238 times, increasing by 45% over the same period last year. Among them, in April, it issued 67 policies of real estate regulation in January.

The agency pointed out that from the perspective of policy content, rescuing enterprises and rescuing the market have become two major characteristics. Among them, the policy of "saving enterprises" focuses on relaxing the payment of land transfer fees and speeding up the pre-sale. In the "rescue market" policy, although the contents of down payment and loosening restriction were mostly stopped, subsidies for buying houses and talents to settle new policies still had a positive impact on the market.

According to statistics of Shanghai Yi Ju Research Institute, in April this year, the volume of commercial housing in 100 key monitoring cities has reached 7 or more over the same period last year. Among them, the hotspots of the second tier cities are more obvious, and the turnover in some cities has exceeded the same period last year.

58 the same city and Anju pointed out that the backlog demand during the epidemic was released in April, and the nationwide housing fever increased by 10.9% in April 2020. The agency also pointed out that in April, home buyers' confidence index was 102.7, rising by 1.8%. 44.5% of buyers think 2020 is a good time to buy a house.

By the May 1 holiday, the demand was released and superimposed on policy stimulus, making market transactions continue to recover, especially in some hot cities.

In from May 1 to 5, 2020, the number of new commercial housing transactions in Beijing reached 725 units, an increase of 225% over the same period last year. The average daily sales volume was 145 sets, the highest in 2016. Over the same period, the volume of second-hand housing doubled in Beijing. Influenced by Xicheng District's "multi school dicing" policy, the growth of transactions in Financial Street and Desheng District of Xicheng District is particularly evident.

The warming of Xicheng District's trading volume has also increased the average transaction price of Beijing's second-hand housing. According to statistics from Shell Research Institute, the average transaction price of Beijing chain was 63530 yuan per square meter during the May Day holiday, which was significantly higher than that in April.

At the latest, Wuhan has also seen a significant rise in the market. According to the data of Wuhan Housing Authority, during the May 1st period (from May 1st to 4th), 743 new commercial housing units in Wuhan were rebuilt, and they have been restored to 80% levels of 926 sets in the same period last year.

Defend cash flow

In this round of market warming, developers mostly pursue the purpose of "cash is king", while increasing marketing efforts, they continue to implement price changes.

Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute pointed out that in April, the offline marketing of Housing enterprises is gradually recovering, but the marketing efforts on the top of the line still remain unchanged. In terms of discount, Hengda Group has a larger profit margin, and the country's 619 real estate offers concessions, up to 19% off. Although some housing prices have followed up, the overall discount is still unchanged from March, at around 10 percent off.

Among them, in order to further improve the money back to the inventory, many enterprises launched a full discount discount.

Fujian housing prices said that the cash flow of housing companies was greatly affected in the first quarter, and the land market was heating up and spending increased. He said that at least in June this year, businesses should focus on the "money back".

The importance of cash flow is also reflected in the land market. In March and April this year, many cities launched high quality plots and led enterprises to scramble for them. In April, cities such as Foshan, Chengdu, Fuzhou and Tianjin, as well as cities in the Yangtze River Delta region, all had high land prices. The number of bidding for individual plots exceeded 100 rounds, and the premium rate exceeded 100%.

"According to convention, good plots are generally pushed in the second half of the year." A large housing company in Beijing told the economic report in twenty-first Century that a large number of high-quality plots have been launched recently, making some enterprises unanticipated. However, because the budgets of various enterprises were relatively adequate at the beginning of the year, the competition for land was fierce.

31 typical housing enterprises in Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, which spent 216 billion 300 million yuan in April, took up 117% yuan, of which 9 housing companies took more than ten billion yuan a month. Because more than half of the plots are located in a second tier city, the average floor price has reached 5845 yuan / square meter, up 12%.

Late "little spring"

Real estate is one of the industries recovering faster from the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, but the traditional property market "small spring" still has to be postponed.

In the majority of the industry view, this year's property market "small spring" in late April before the real opening, which is earlier than the middle of March (after the two sessions of the National Assembly) after the start of the delay of about one and a half months.

Will "spring" become "late spring" and will it be affected?

Shanghai Yi Ju Research Institute pointed out that the "red May" market is worth expecting. Relatively abundant credit capital is still the biggest positive factor in the real estate market. It is expected that the overall monetary policy will be robust in 2020. The whole real estate credit policy is neutral and positive. It can activate wait-and-see needs and enhance the ability to purchase houses. In the short term, the real estate market will continue to have a rare sales window period, and the scale of transactions is expected to rise steadily.

For the land market, the agency believes that although housing prices will remain cautiously optimistic, business investment still has room for improvement. A second tier core city with faster recovery will remain the focus of investment.

Housing prices are also looking forward to "late spring". Fujian Housing enterprises said that the financing environment has not improved significantly, the next two months will be a key period for housing companies to supplement cash flow. Enterprises will not only continue to increase the push, but the sales side will not be cancelled soon.

Taking the Beijing market as an example, the person said that after the exploratory opening in April, the company was optimistic about the expectations of the Beijing market in May, and plans to launch a number of housing sources in May to return the funds. However, due to other competing products in the area where the project is located, the push time is set in May 1st, as far as possible.

It is understood that due to the impact of the epidemic, many housing enterprises have adjusted the proportion of sales in the second half of the year from 4:6 to 3:7. However, due to the rapid recovery in the near future, some enterprises hope to ship as much as possible in the first half of the year.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, believes that in the policy environment of "housing and housing speculation", the market will slowly recover in the future, and volume is expected to return to the same level last year. But there is also a possibility that the price will rise locally.

According to the statistics of the China Index Research Institute, in the context of market warming, the average price of 100 cities (new buildings) in the whole country in April 2020 was 15233 yuan / square meter, rising by 0.25%. From the number of ups and downs of the city, 67 cities rose, 32 cities fell, 1 cities were unchanged from last month.

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