Consumption Slightly Recovered, Cotton Prices Rebounded Lower

Last week (4-8 May), due to the fall of the "May 1" labor day, the domestic cotton prices were sharply lower, triggering a large number of spot price transactions. With the steady progress of domestic resumption and resumption of production, the orderly implementation of the first phase of Sino US agreement, and the rapid recovery of crude oil prices, the confidence of cotton market has increased, and the low price of domestic and foreign cotton has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the shocks and creating a new rebound in the current round. However, at present, the epidemic situation in foreign countries has not been effectively controlled. In April, the export volume of garment exports decreased by 30% compared with the same period last year. There was no sign of recovery, domestic sales resumed slowly, sales of cotton mills in reworked mills were difficult, prices fell sharply, production restrictions and shutdowns were widespread, cotton consumption remained low, and cotton prices rose further to suppress. Polyester price 5700 yuan / ton, viscose price 8500 yuan / ton, maintain low. Cotton CNCottonB index is 11505 yuan / ton, compared with zhengmian CF2005 225 yuan / ton.

Futures side 。 During the May 1 period, the external market fell, but on the basis of gradual improvement of the fundamentals, the festival rose rapidly to a concussion and active trading. Zheng cotton main force CF2009 closed at 11655 yuan / ton last Friday, the week rose 5 yuan / ton, the position increased 46057 hands. The top 20 positions, holding more than one single 357548 hands, increased 17049 hands, empty single 433767 hands, increased 28161 hands, 76219 hands empty, 11112 hands increase, cotton prices rose to the shock track, the bears increased. At present, textile consumption is still not optimistic, cotton prices have rebounded to the upper reaches of the shock. At the end of April, about 500000 tons of futures were transferred to stock market. Last week, when Zheng cotton was low, some spot prices were triggered, and the stock of the cotton mill was relatively adequate. At present, technical aspects and fundamentals do not support Zheng cotton's upward trend. It is expected that the probability of returning to the range will be greater this week.

American disk The Sino US trade relations pass a positive signal, the US cotton callback to the previous level to support and uplink, Friday's main contract in July closed at 56.24 cents / pound, the week rose 44 points, continued upward upward pressure, this week the callback probability is bigger.

Spot aspects 。 The epidemic outside China has not yet improved, and exports of main varieties such as gauze and clothing are still at a halt. The downward pressure on the economy has not been reduced, and domestic consumption has declined significantly. Last week, the price of Xinjiang cotton was concentrated at 11500-11800 yuan / ton, and the price of imported cotton was close to Xinjiang cotton. Brazil cotton was relatively optimistic because of its price close to Xinjiang cotton and "three silk". After Zheng cotton picked up, there was no catch up purchase. The market began to wait and see, waiting for the price to be effectively transmitted back to the gauze. If it can not be effectively delivered, the cotton mill can not digest the price of cotton, and may limit production or increase the limit of production to maintain its operation.

Operation suggestion 。 Zheng cotton has rebounded to the upward trajectory of the shock. The consumption of the latter is limited, and the epidemic situation abroad is still not optimistic. Before the actual improvement of the epidemic situation, it is expected that the market will remain in the market, and the cotton mill can bargain.