The PTA Market Still Needs To Be Treated Cautiously.

Before the May 1 holiday, the European Union and China continued to report the resumption of production and resumption of production. In addition, the market looked forward to the resumption of joint production and reburning of OPEC+, which is about to begin in May. The international oil prices have picked up, boosting confidence in the market and stocking up the downstream polyester factories. During the period of the Ningbo Leo accident, the local spot market has been boosted up in the short term, which has led to more active market transactions in Ningbo. The spot base is 10-20 yuan higher than the market. PTA is now continuing to repair the trend. However, as the oil rebound is blocked, PTA spot and 09 contracts are in a state of stagnation. The enthusiasm of pet plate is once again dissipated. It is expected that if the crude oil does not improve in May, the desire to continue to accept the downstream polyester will not be much. A brief summary of the operation of the later disk is as follows.

High inventory. Profit driven, PTA load remained high, but the impact of events, downstream polyester start up continuously poor, PTA social inventories continued to climb to a record high, until the deadline, the domestic social inventory reached 3 million 551 thousand and 600 tons, and supply and demand scissors still maintained at more than 10000 tonnes, expected 5-6 months, social inventories will be a new high. Although many of them are locked in the futures market, sooner or later, they will return to the spot market. It is difficult to see the warehouse in the short term unless the processing fee is compressed to the cost or even to the deficit.

High profit. In April, crude oil prices constantly refreshed the low price record in recent years, and even produced an unprecedented negative price. With OPEC+ In May, the formal reduction in production and the decline in shale oil output in the United States and the gradual relaxation of control measures in the US and Europe, and the sharp supply and demand scissors gap in the early stage of crude oil were rapidly shrinking, and the resumption of production and production in Europe and the United States gradually opened up. The surplus situation will be improved. Under this expectation, crude oil rebounded sharply during the labor holiday. After several times, the rebound market is temporarily in a state of stagnation. If the crude oil could not rebound effectively in July and August, the processing fee of the later contract disk would be relatively good. Under the high profit situation, the supply side could not play a good supporting role in the price, but it was bad.

The surface of the dish rises. In the futures market, the natural futures are suitable for multi spot futures.

Nine Cancellation month. In the event of the impact of demand, there may be a large number of warehouse receipts due, lost financial attributes, and eventually enter the spot market, so September may face the pressure of delivery.

To sum up, Crude oil has generally maintained a good level in the absence of a big rebound, with a good profit margin of 09, the contract has gone up; the supply of good profits has been ensured; the demand period is hard to recover; the problem of high inventory is also difficult to resolve; the futures market is upgraded to the spot, which is suitable for many spot air futures; in September, the warehouse receipt was forced to write off and the delivery pressure was large. From these points of view, although the absolute price is low, it is also a new historical low. However, the real rise of the TA09 contract has not yet seen the driving force of good. Despite the better circulation, the upward shift of the price center will still be a tortuous process, and the current market price will be cautiously treated.