New Changes In Textile Industry Indicators: Narrowing Of Domestic Demand And Reparative Changes In External Demand

Since April, the overall operation of China's cotton textile industry has continued to improve since March. Cotton prices have rebounded, textile production has been transformed, and domestic demand consumption has also continued to narrow.

First, raw material price recovery rebound.

Since April, the negative effects of the epidemic have gradually weakened, leading to a rebound in global stock market and crude oil prices, and cotton prices are showing signs of rising. The average price of the national cotton price B index representing the domestic standard grade lint spot price is 11393 yuan / ton, a decrease of about 6% compared with the previous month, and the trend of decline since the Spring Festival is 17% lower than that before the Spring Festival. Cotton prices have risen slightly to 11500 yuan / ton since May.

Two, cotton yarn prices gradually stabilized

Since April, the resumption of textile industry has improved further, and the rebound of raw material prices has led to the stabilization of cotton yarn prices. The average price of 32 Pure Cotton Combed Yarns reflecting the price level of the mainstream yarn in China is 19212 yuan / ton, a decrease of about 5.5%, compared with a total decrease of 6.7% before the Spring Festival. Since late May, the price of 32 Pure Cotton Combed Yarns has stabilized at around 18700 yuan / ton, showing signs of a steady rebound and not yet rising cotton prices.

Three. Textile industry takes the lead.

With the quickening pace of domestic resumption of production and resumption of production, the textile industry in April has obviously recovered further, and the growth rate of main indicators has been greatly changed from negative to large. According to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics, in April, the industrial added value of textile industry above designated size increased from 5.5% in March to 2.2%. The textile industry has achieved positive results, approaching the normal level in recent two years.

Four, narrowing of investment scale narrowed

In April, with the continuous improvement of the epidemic prevention and control strategy, a series of stable investment policies fell into effect, and the shrinkage of the textile industry investment scale improved. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2020 1-4, the fixed assets investment in textile industry decreased by 32.5% compared with the same period last year, the decrease narrowed by 4.6 percentage points from last month. Among them, the textile and clothing industry decreased by 4.1 percentage points. Under the epidemic situation, the related investment of anti epidemic materials and export to domestic sales has become an important direction of industry investment.

Five, domestic demand retail sales continue to narrow.

Since April, domestic consumption has further improved, and retail sales have continued to narrow year-on-year. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 7.5% in nominal terms in April, a decrease of 8.3 percentage points from March. After May, holiday consumption accelerated the recovery of the market. On May 1st -5, the Ministry of Commerce focused on monitoring the average daily sales of retail businesses by 32.1%. Compared with the Qingming holidays, the average daily sales of clothing increased by 31.2% over the Qingming holiday. This means that the potential of domestic demand is constantly being released and consumption is expected to be compensated.

Six, textile exports improve, garment export market performance differentiation

In April, the demand for overseas masks and epidemic prevention fabrics increased sharply, which led to an increase of 49.36% in China's textile exports in April compared with the same period last year. The decline in overseas consumption led to a 30.31% decline in exports of clothing in China compared with the same period last year. The main export markets of textiles and clothing in Europe and the United States, since May, the European epidemic control measures have been gradually relaxed, and many cities clothing stores resume business. High risk of the US epidemic and high retail sales of clothing fell sharply. According to the statistics of the US Department of Commerce, sales of clothing and clothing accessories stores in the United States dropped by an unprecedented 78.8% in April, exceeding the largest monthly decline of 49.4% in March. From the current situation of foreign trade enterprises in China, the order of foreign demand is expected to improve, but it will not be obvious.

To sum up, the global epidemic prevention and control is normalized, and countries will restart the economy, and the consumer market will have some compensatory recovery. With the gradual recovery of consumer market and support policy, it is estimated that the operation level of cotton textile and garment industry in the second half of 2020 will be improved significantly compared with the first half of the year. In the long run, the epidemic will enlarge the global cotton textile industry chain, and China's textile enterprises are still facing serious problems. Policy support constantly optimizes the industrial ecological environment, and the domestic demand market potential becomes a new advantage of industrial development. In order to solve the constraints of external demand environment, enterprises need to make efforts from strategic management, innovation breakthroughs, value reengineering and other aspects, so as to enhance their international competitiveness and risk tolerance.