The "Lost" Tenant: The Rent Is Falling.

As early as the end of 3 this year, Mr. Cao would rent a flat for ten bedroom in Chaoyang District, Beijing, but it was not until mid May that he successfully rented out the house. The whole cycle reaches more than 50 days.

"I didn't expect to rent too much." Mr. Cao told the economic news reporters in twenty-first Century that no one had made an appointment for the first half of the month. It was not until 4 months later that someone came to see it, but the intention was not strong. After two price cuts, Mr. Cao only rented out the house, which was about 350 yuan / month lower than last year.

Although the outbreak of new crown pneumonia has been effectively controlled, its impact on the rental market has not yet been completely eliminated.

According to data released by Shell Research Institute, in May this year, the volume of leasing transactions in 18 key cities increased by 2.1%, up 52% over the same period last year. But the rental price has not recovered synchronously, but is lower than the same period last year.

The delay in rental demand under the impact of the epidemic is the main reason for the market warming in May. But in general, the change in the concept of the epidemic and the recovery of the economy will take some time to weaken the demand scale of the rental market. I love my family in a quarterly report that the epidemic will prompt "part of the rental demand to home demand transformation".

This has also affected market performance. According to the statistics of Shell Research Institute, the average turnover period of rental housing in 18 cities in May (from the first time to the transaction) was 48.37 days, although it was shorter than that in April, but it is still 9 days longer than last year. Meanwhile, "in the 4-5 month of this year, the listing price of owners is at the lowest level in nearly two years".

Although the outbreak of new crown pneumonia has been effectively controlled, its impact on the rental market has not yet been completely eliminated. IC photo

Rent fell year-on-year.

After the Spring Festival, this is the traditional "peak season" for leasing the market. However, due to the epidemic situation, the rental market in February was almost stagnant. The rental market has been recovering slowly since March.

Because of the different requirements for epidemic prevention and control in different cities, the market recovery process is also inconsistent. In the 18 key cities of the shell Research Institute, the scale of the lease transactions in 15 cities reached a high level in April and fell in May.

The three cities of Beijing, Wuhan and Nanjing are exceptions. Among them, Beijing and Wuhan are important areas for epidemic prevention and control. The policy of prevention and control is stricter, and the rental demand is postponed compared with other cities. In May, the scale of rental transactions in these two cities rose by 27.28% and 25.28% respectively.

But overall, the recent continuous transaction does not make up for the demand gap. In many cities, the total scale of leasing transactions in the first half of May is only 7 of the same period last year, to 8.

"The degree of activity in the rental market is closely related to the employment environment." Zhuge search house data research center pointed out that although the major enterprises are actively resuming work and resuming production, but affected by the epidemic, enterprises "reduce talent and reduce costs" is normal, and the unemployment rate shows signs of increase, which also leads to the fact that the activity of the rental market is not high.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, as of April 2020, the unemployment rate of 31 major cities and towns was 5.8%, a record high since 2018.

Huang Hui, a leasing analyst at Shell Research Institute, told the twenty-first Century economic news reporter that the rental demand in the market can be divided into three main categories: the leasing demand of university graduates, the rental demand of the floating population and the demand for rent change of the local household population. Among them, the floating population accounts for more than 50% of the rental demand, which is the mainstream of market demand. The traditional rental season after Spring Festival is also mainly driven by this demand.

The outbreak has just affected this part of the demand. Mr. Cao said that the original tenant of the house had delayed the return to Beijing because of the epidemic.

This also causes the adjustment of supply and demand relationship in the leasing market. "Most cities have higher bargaining space than the same period last year, and tenants can take more initiative in leasing transactions." Shell Research Institute pointed out that in May, the average monthly price of the 18 key cities in China was 43.7 yuan / square meter, unchanged from April, down 7% from the same period last year.

Twenty-first Century economic report reporter learned that, due to the longer vacancy period, nearly two months, free, and other large rental agencies, once reduced the rent of some housing sources.

Huang Hui said that in 2019, the annual turnover period of the rental housing in key cities was about 38 days, of which the peak season was generally 30 days -40 days. Since February this year, the impact of the epidemic has extended the transaction period to more than 60 days. After that, the turnover period has dropped, but the turnover period in May still reaches 48.37 days.

Or accelerate the industry reshuffle.

Another peak season for the rental market is from June to August each year, mainly driven by the needs of college graduates. Among them, because the peak period has not yet arrived, the lease transactions in the early June are usually relatively stable.

Shell Research Institute data show that in the first week of June, the volume of leasing market in key 18 cities was 5.9% lower than that in the fourth week of May. The rent level is 41.7 yuan / square meter, down 4.3% from May, 5.2% lower than the same period last year.

Huang Hui believes that the rental market is relatively stable in the early June, but with the arrival of the graduation season, the rent level between cities will show a trend of differentiation. In the graduation season, the rental level of the rental demand will rise, and the rent power of other cities will not be enough.

But at the moment, there is still some doubt about the color of the season.

An unnamed senior real estate brokerage worker told the twenty-first Century economic news reporter that on the one hand, the epidemic delayed many college graduates' graduation, internship and job hunting. On the other hand, the demand for fresh graduates was also likely to decline as affected by the epidemic. Therefore, the peak season of mid year leasing is likely to be postponed this year, and the scale of the transaction has also shrunk compared with previous years.

The former said that if demand shrinks, it will not only affect the rent level, but also the whole leasing industry.

In recent years, the "hire purchase simultaneously" put forward the rental market to usher in an important development opportunity. But since last year, the industry has seen the biggest shuffle. According to incomplete statistics, 53 parents rent apartments in 2019, and there are 45 problems in the capital chain breaking and running, 4 of which are purchased, and 4 of them are in arrears or refuse to pay rent.

Zhuge pointed out that in 2019, the long rental apartments continued to thunder, the false housing supply, group renting and other chaos appeared frequently, resulting in the gradual strengthening of the regulation of the rental market, and many cities set up a special group to rent and rectify the market. "Difficult living environment forces institutions to take low rent to attract tenants to stay, and landlords are forced to reduce rent by rapidly renting houses and following the market."

The profit of the leasing industry is thin and the profit pattern is uncertain. For a long time, most operators are running at a loss.

The new crown epidemic and its joint effects are considered to continue to affect the leasing industry. The aforementioned persons said that at the beginning of the epidemic, there was a "thunder explosion" in the Qing Ke apartment. During the epidemic period, the eggshell apartment fell into a downward rent dispute and fell into the dispute of changing the password lock. This shows that there are problems in the management mode, profitability and financial strength of the industry.

The person believes that if the rental market is not as fast as expected, the leasing industry will continue to shuffle. Among them, large leasing institutions have larger probability of survival, but will gradually become standardized. Some small leasing institutions with insufficient financial strength will gradually be eliminated by the market. At the same time, the irrational expansion of industry driven by capital will also temporarily cease.

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