Be Vigilant! Fixed Income Fund Has "Stable Happiness" And "Minefield"

This is one of the series of assessments of the public fund industry of the 21st Century Capital Research Institute "the responsibility warms the hearts of the people and is different from the high school entrance examination list". In 2020, the trend of fixed income funds will be left or right?

The background of the group's assessment is that the bond market's trend in the first half of the year has led to losses in bond funds, which have been known as "stable and happy".

Research team statistics show that more than 80% of bond funds have reported negative returns since May to the end of June.

Among them, the net worth of nearly 400 funds (statistics by share) dropped by more than 2%.

Not only are investors flustered, but many institutions are also facing the distrust of the market, turning to the "online Q & a" mode.

Why bond funds also lose money, whether bond funds need to be redeemed when they fall, and how the bond market's follow-up trend is the focus of market attention.

"In the short term, after the previous decline, the long-term yield at the current time point has a certain allocation value. Although the economic fundamentals have gradually recovered, it is far from the normal growth level. The marginal tightening of monetary policy has not changed the overall pattern of easing." On July 1, a securities firm was interviewed by the director of fixed income of public funds.

It is expected that the bond market continues the early trend of the callback pressure is not big, short-term mainly shock.

Market changes bring general decline

According to the statistics of the 21st Century Capital Institute, the average yield of all bond funds in the first half of this year was 1.76%.

Among them, 90% of bond funds had positive returns in the first half of this year.

Although overall, bond fund returns are still relatively stable, but the bond market adjustment since April 30 has consumed most of the growth of bond funds in the first quarter.

This makes the performance of bond funds in the first half of the year not outstanding.

Data shows that Treasury bond futures have been on the decline since April 30, and the 10-year Treasury bond futures t2009 contract has shown a monthly decline in May and June, with monthly declines of 1.36% and 0.73% respectively.

Another statistic shows that the average return of all bond funds in the market since May to the end of June is - 0.89%, of which 80% of bond funds are in loss in this range.

On a quarterly basis, the median holding period yield (non annualized) of pure bond funds in the second quarter of this year was 0.14%, down 1.92 percentage points from the first quarter. The median yield in the first half of 2020 is 2.11%, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than that in the second half of 2019. On the whole, the fund performance distribution has been significantly down.

Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that the resumption of the second quarter of the market, the current main contradictions around the trend of the market money more difficult. The main contradictions are the continuous fermentation of the main line of the epidemic from March to April, the expectation of domestic monetary easing, and the prospective tightening of domestic currency under the background of the continuous easing of the epidemic in May. Since the middle of June, the new main contradiction has not appeared yet, and the monetary policy has changed from too tight to neutral, which has become a new expectation gap.

In fact, from the analysis of institutions in this period of time, it is not difficult to see a kind of anxiety in the current bond market.

For fund investors, the bond fund's decline in the past two months has brought about redemption considerations, which have already appeared.

According to the market data of public funds in May released by the fund industry association, the net value of stock funds and hybrid funds in May increased compared with April, while the net value of bond funds and monetary funds decreased compared with April.

Data show that the net value of bond funds in May decreased by 65.713 billion yuan compared with April.

In contrast, the net value of bond funds in April increased by 348.488 billion yuan compared with March, while the bull market atmosphere in the bond market was still strong.

"The market is down, the performance of funds is not good, many investors are really worried, during this period of time, we have done a lot of investor education work to interpret the market situation." A person from a public fund company in South China told the reporter of the 21st century economic report.

For the follow-up market, Wei Fengchun, chief macro strategy analyst of Boshi fund, believes that "LPR has not lowered interest rate for two consecutive months, short-term interest rate bond supply pressure is large, the bid winning yield of 5-year CDB bond is more than 30 BP higher than that of secondary market, market capital has been tightened to a certain extent, sentiment is generally empty, economy is gradually normalized, interest rate trend is gradually raised, and high static is mined in the short term The coupon strategy of revenue is the main one. "

"In the second half of the year, the bond market has the opportunity to do long. After the inter-bank capital interest rate center enters a relatively stable state, the fundamental expectation gap will dominate the bond market trend." Founder Fubang Fund pointed out in an interview.

The investment and research personnel of the company believe that the gradual end of the domestic rush effect and the risk of secondary outbreak of overseas epidemic may lead to the slope of domestic economic recovery less than market expectation, and factors such as the US election may also have an impact on the market risk preference, thus opening a window for bond market to do more.

Stepping on thunder fund hit hard

In addition to the general decline of fund performance caused by market factors, a major minefield of bond funds is fund stepping on thunder.

As the bond market is becoming more and more common, the bond market is becoming more and more normalized. For public funds, the net value drop caused by stepping on thunder is also a problem that ordinary investors need to avoid.

"Once the position bonds default, liquidity will be lost, and it is difficult to sell them. Fund companies can only make subsequent valuation adjustments, which will lead to fluctuations in the net value of funds." A mutual fund bond fund manager said.

According to the 21st century economic report, since this year, both Beixin Ruifeng fund and Soochow Fund have issued an announcement on the valuation adjustment of default bonds held by their funds.

For example, in June, Beixin Ruifeng Fund announced that since June 22, 2020, the company's funds held by the "17 products mtn001" valuation adjustment.

Soochow Fund also announced twice in June on the valuation adjustment of its step thunder bonds, including the decision to adjust the valuation of "16 Xinwei 01" and "16 Xinwei 03" held by the company's funds from June 8, 2020, and the two bonds from June 19, 2020.

After reducing the valuation, the net value of related funds also fell sharply.

According to the data, on June 22, the net value of Beixin Ruifeng stable income bond fund decreased by nearly 6%; the net value of Dongwu Dingli fund decreased by 6.5% on June 8, and the decline reached 5.97% after the revaluation was adjusted again on June 19.

According to the data, Dongwu Dingli and Dongwu Dingyuan double bond A / C are the funds with the largest decline up to the end of June since May, with a decline of more than 10%; from the perspective of the whole first half of the year, the decline of Dongwu Dingli was second only to that of Fengli a / C, ranking third.

The sharp loss of China Merchants double bond Fengli is due to stepping on the related bonds of leihuaxin group. In April this year, the mid index company adjusted the valuation of the relevant bonds, so the net value of the fund fell.

In addition to the fluctuation of net value of funds brought by valuation adjustment after stepping on thunder, some funds have gone to the stage of liquidation.

For example, Soochow Youxin stable, Dongwu Dingyuan double debt, Soochow Zengli and Dongwu Dingli, which are under the jurisdiction of Soochow Fund, all issued announcements in June to remind them to hold a general meeting of fund unitholders to consider matters related to the termination of fund contracts.

The reason is that the scale of the fund is greatly reduced. According to the data at the end of the first quarter of this year, the scale of Dongwu Dingli, Dongwu Zengli, Dongwu Youxin steady and Dongwu Dingyuan double bonds were 42.1341 million yuan, 13.8197 million yuan, 10.7591 million yuan and 4.4349 million yuan respectively.

It is also a typical case that the company will not open a bond in six months.

According to the annual report data of 2019, PICC Tianyi held 700000 bonds of "19 founder scp002" at the end of the report period for six months. Due to the delayed payment of the principal of the bonds, the fund manager adjusted the valuation of the bonds and made provision for asset impairment. As of December 31, 2019, its book value was only 37.569 million yuan.

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