"Second Senior Brother" Has A High Price, And The Animal Husbandry Industry Has Made 10 Billion Yuan In Half A Year, And The Prospect Of Pig Breeding Industry Continues

At the end of July 13, the three major stock indexes of a share rose in shock, and the agricultural plate rose by more than 5%, leading the whole market. In the agricultural sector, the pig industry ushered in a wave of boom this year.

In the first half of this year, the selling price of live pigs continued to run at a high level, and the average profit of pig breeding industry was significantly higher than that of the same period of last year. In this wave of market, pig breeding enterprises have made outstanding achievements and reversed the loss situation in the first half of last year.

In recent days, a number of enterprises involved in pig raising announced their performance in the first half of this year. In the first half of the year, it is estimated that the net profit of the pig breeding company will be RMB 20.5 billion, which is expected to be 10.5 billion yuan for the original pig breeding company, which is expected to increase the net profit of pig breeding enterprises by RMB 20.5 billion yuan in the first half of the year.

Behind the surge in performance is a long wave of upward "pig cycle" in China's pig breeding industry. "Under the influence of such factors as the double epidemic situation, this round of pig cycle will be lengthened, and the competition in the later stage is to compete with the overall competitiveness, who has the advantages of low cost, high efficiency and great scientific and technological achievements." Previously, Liu Yonghao, chairman of the new hope group, pointed out in an interview.

In fact, since last year, large-scale breeding enterprises have increased investment in pig breeding, including some real estate enterprises also began to cross-border pig breeding. Pig breeding began to recover gradually from last year. However, due to the long-term characteristics of pig breeding itself, the release of large capacity may have to wait longer.

High pork prices drop

In the first half of this year, pork prices have gone out of a wave of "V" shaped market. Since the end of May, pork prices have risen for five consecutive weeks. Although the current pork price has not reached the high level in February this year, it has recovered most of the land lost in the first half of this year.

In January this year, the price of live pigs has gone up. Because of piglet diarrhea in winter and spring and other conventional diseases, the survival rate of piglets was significantly reduced, and then domestic pigs were out of stock from June to July, which became the main reason for this round of price rise.

In July, although the price of pork has experienced a wave of rising since May, it is unlikely that the price of pork will continue to go down in the long run.

"In the process of this wave of decline, slaughtering enterprises actually have a lot of losses and have the willingness to continue to lower prices." A pig industry personage told reporters, "however, in general, the supply of live pigs in the market is very limited, and the farmers' recognition of low prices is relatively low, so it is unlikely to fall again in a short time."

According to the monitoring data of Zhuo Chuang information, the average price of the three yuan market in the whole country was 38.42 yuan / kg, up 1.90 yuan / kg, or 5.20%, compared with the beginning of the month. The highest price was 38.84 yuan / kg on July 8. This round of rise, the Northeast market led the country, the largest increase.

Since June, due to the aggravation of African swine plague by heavy rainfall, the recovery rate of pig production capacity in southern China slowed down. The number of reproducible sows in South China and southwest China decreased by 3.78% and 3.04% month on month, respectively, while that of Guangdong, Sichuan, Yunnan Guizhou and Hubei Provinces decreased by 5% compared with the previous month.

In addition, with the recurrence of overseas epidemic situation, a number of foreign meat factories have new coronapneumonia aggregation infection, and China's pork import volume will be greatly reduced in the second half of the year. The reproductive capacity of Sanyuan pig, the main breed of breeding sows, is low. In the long run, the recovery rate of pig production capacity in this year is still not optimistic.

Weak supply and demand

Under the pressure of high price live pigs, the demand market for pork is not optimistic. The slaughtering volume of slaughtering enterprises has been shrinking, and the operating rate has reached new lows. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises dropped to 12.04% on July 10, 1.52 percentage points lower than 13.56% at the beginning of the month.

"The global new pneumonia epidemic has hindered the domestic import and export trade, and the domestic economy has also been affected by this, which shows that the consumption capacity is relatively reduced, and the demand for high-priced pork has declined, which is not conducive to pork consumption." Zhuo Chuang information analyst Zhang Lili told reporters.

In a short time, domestic demand side or continue to be light, supply is also tight, price rise and fall space is not big. However, in terms of supply, as time goes into August, a batch of secondary fattening in China, especially in the south, will be put on the market in the middle and late July. The shortage of supply may ease, and the supply of live pigs may continue to increase in the second half of the year.

In terms of demand, the inhibition effect of high price pork on demand will continue. In addition, the hot weather and slow digestion speed of pork will lead to low consumption in July to September. Although consumption in the fourth quarter will improve, compared with the gradual recovery of production capacity, the impact is limited.

For domestic pig enterprises, the future will still maintain a period of high growth period, with the strength of the capital market and the support of national policies, it is enough to let the current leading pig breeding enterprises show rapid development speed and cost advantage.

"In the next year or so, there is a possibility that pig breeding will be surplus. The final pattern for the expansion of the whole industry is that the price will be lower than the cost line, and then enter a low period." Liu Yonghao once said, "and the ultimate beneficiaries of the price drop are the Chinese people."

?