In The First Half Of The Year, The Real Estate Market "Opened Low And Went High": The Real Estate Investment Was Growing, And The Restrictive Regulatory Policies Were Tight

With the gradual remission of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the real estate market is rapidly recovering and ending the first half of this year with the "two consecutive increases" in turnover.

On July 16, the National Bureau of statistics released macroeconomic data for the first half of the year. Among them, the performance of the property market is quite impressive. In the first half of this year, China's real estate development investment reached 6278 billion yuan, up 1.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate turned positive for the first time in the year.

In the first half of the year, the scale of commercial housing sales is still lower than that of the same period last year, but the decline is gradually narrowing. And from a single month point of view, in May and June, the market sales scale has exceeded the same period last year for two consecutive months. This also shows that the real estate market transactions have completely recovered from the epidemic.

Friendly policies, smooth resumption of work and production, and loose liquidity are considered to be the main reasons for stimulating the market to warm up. With the overall recovery of the market, in June this year, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 61 cities had a month on month rise in new house prices, and 50 cities had a rise in second-hand house prices, both of which were the highest in the last 12 months. Among them, Shenzhen has introduced the most stringent measures to limit the purchase of second-hand houses due to the rapid rise in prices of second-hand houses.

"Real estate market" has entered the "hot" part. So, after returning to normal, how will the market evolve? Is the new deal in Shenzhen a signal of tightening regulation?

The market is heating up obviously

Affected by the epidemic situation, from January to February this year, the sales area of commercial housing in China decreased by nearly 40%, and the sales volume decreased by 36%. Since then, with the promotion of resumption of work and production, the market has gradually warmed up. By the first half of this year, the decline rate of sales area and sales volume of commercial housing in China narrowed to 8.4% and 5.4% respectively.

Among them, the performance of the market in the second quarter is particularly bright. In April, the sales area of commercial housing in China was 119.95 million square meters, only 2.1% lower than the same period last year; the sales volume of commercial housing was 1149.8 billion yuan, only 5.0% lower than the same period last year. In May and June, these two indicators were fully positive. In the case of the impact of real estate enterprises on the semi annual performance, the national commercial housing sales area exceeded 200 million square meters in June, a new high in the year.

The release of a large number of demand has become the main cause of market warming. Among them, there are not only the demand suppressed by the epidemic situation, but also the demand for fund hedging caused by market uncertainty.

Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, pointed out that under the relatively loose liquidity, the demand for purchasing housing in core cities to maintain and increase the value of assets increased, and the transaction of improved houses with high total price and large family size increased significantly.

The recovery of sales and the relatively loose financing environment have improved the capital situation of real estate enterprises. In the first half of the year, 8334.4 billion yuan was put in place by real estate enterprises, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% from 17.5% in the first two months of this year.

On the investment side, the growth rate of national real estate development investment in the first half of the year was finally positive, reaching 1.9%. Due to abundant funds and good expectations, real estate enterprises have taken a large number of land in the near future, and the land acquisition area in the first half of the year almost recovered to the level of the same period last year.

The rising market has also pushed up prices. Among the 70 large and medium-sized cities included in the statistics, the house prices of the second and third tier cities have increased significantly, becoming the main force of the "rising list".

In June, the selling prices of newly built commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings in 31 second tier cities rose by 0.9% and 0.5% respectively on a month on month basis, while those of 35 third tier cities rose by 0.8% and 0.5% month on month. Among them, Yinchuan, Tangshan, Huizhou led the list of new housing growth, Wuxi, Xining, Yinchuan ranked second to fourth in the second-hand housing growth list.

Compared with the first tier cities, the prices of the first tier cities have declined, and the price increases in the first tier cities are not as good as those in the second tier cities. But as a special case, Shenzhen's second-hand house prices rose 1.9% last month, ranking first among 70 large and medium-sized cities.

Affected by this, Shenzhen issued eight new policies on property market regulation on July 15, which increased the scale of the "five restrictions" (purchase restriction, loan restriction, sales restriction, price restriction and household type restriction) of the property market. Among them, the purchase restriction threshold of "having settled for 3 years + individual income tax or social security for 36 consecutive months" is "the most stringent in history".

"Regulation begins to turn"?

In the view of most analysts, Shenzhen's housing prices have risen too fast. Although there are factors such as insufficient supply and strong real estate speculation atmosphere, it also reflects that under the background of market warming, some regional markets are still likely to "overheat".

According to the statistics of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, in June this year, 12 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities saw price increases of second-hand houses exceeding the "reasonable range" (0.2% - 0.6%). Among them, Shenzhen, Wuxi, Xining, Yinchuan and Ningbo are located in the "overheated zone" due to the price increase of more than 1.0%.

Real estate companies have already felt the heat. On the one hand, due to the good customer storage and sales situation, many projects have cancelled the previous price concessions or even raised the prices; on the other hand, due to the good expectations, the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises for land acquisition is high, and the land market also appears "both quantity and price rise".

According to the statistics of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, in June this year, the average land transaction price of 40 typical cities was 5966.6 yuan / square meter, up 11.5% month on month and 14.3% on year-on-year basis, a record high. In the first half of this year, the land transfer fees of Hangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou exceeded 100 billion yuan.

In the early stage of the 21st century, the reporter was worried that the market would not be affected by the downward trend of the housing market, which might result from the pressure on the market in the second half of the century.

This worry is justified. Since May, repeated outbreaks have occurred in Beijing, and the market confidence of many practitioners has been hit.

Policy adjustments have also emerged. Before Shenzhen introduced the new regulation policy, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Zhengzhou, Inner Mongolia and other provinces and cities successively tightened the regulation of the property market in July, while Dongguan tightened the regulation on July 16. The CBRC also said on July 13 that "bancassurance institutions are strictly prohibited from illegally participating in over-the-counter capital allocation, strictly investigating the acts of increasing leverage and speculation, preventing the emergence of asset bubbles, and ensuring that financial resources really flow to the areas and links most needed in the real economy."

"Regulation began to turn." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, said that the regulatory policies introduced in the first half of the year focused on "maintaining stability". As house prices in many cities have risen significantly recently, restrictive regulatory policies have begun to appear.

Xu Xiaole also pointed out that the government will not re stimulate the real estate because of economic growth and fiscal revenue difficulties, and the current policy guidance is to let funds return to the real economy.

Most analysts believe that in the context of housing speculation and urban policies, the future property market regulation will remain moderately tight. Affected by this, the market is likely to continue to heat up, but the range is limited, and the situation of local overheating will be quickly curbed.

On the judgment of real estate investment, Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics and director of the Department of comprehensive statistics of the national economy, is also quite cautious. "In the first half of the year, real estate investment has turned positive, with an increase of 1.9%. At the same time, we should also see more real estate market indicators, such as new housing construction area, land purchase area, and some commercial housing sales indicators, which are still in the decline range. So the trend of real estate in the second half of the year should be observed. "

?