A-Share Deep Adjustment Does Not Change The Long-Term Trend Institutions Said: The Main Line Depends On The "Admission Posture" Of Incremental Funds

"I watched my LV Chanel blue balloon disappear and move bricks again."

On July 16, after the A-share market plummeted, a heavy investor in the circle of friends lamented that the map is a green market index.

On the same day, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell across the board, with the three major indexes falling the largest one-day decline since February 3.

The Shenzhen composite index fell by 10.37% to close at 1290.34%, while the Shenzhen composite index fell by 10.37%.

Since July 1, this round of "fast bull" market, the market rose by 500 points in a short 10 trading days, and securities companies, science and technology, liquor plate also showed a rapid rise. The index was up 8% on the first day of trading, and was up 8% for the second consecutive day. For a while, many people called out "the bull market is coming".

But in the next three trading days, a shares fell back. As of July 16, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 5.12% this week, missing 3300 points.

However, from the perspective of all parties, institutions are optimistic about the future market. And the admission of incremental funds will be a force that can not be ignored in the future market.

Risk clearing caused by resonance of multiple factors

After a correction on July 14 and 15, a shares fell on July 16.

The wine making industry fell by more than 8%, and 37 stocks fell to varying degrees. Among them, the output of Luzhou liquor and Luzhou liquor decreased by nearly 0.9 billion yuan, including the decline of 0.8 billion yuan in the output of Luzhou liquor and Luzhou liquor.

Tourism and hotels, diversified finance, medical industry, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical manufacturing industries all fell by more than 6%.

The top five industries were banking, craft goods, insurance, environmental protection engineering and landscape engineering. The decline in the banking sector was 0.17%, with the growth of Zhangjiagang bank exceeding 8%. The other four sectors fell in the range of 1% to 2%.

On July 16, SMIC international science and technology innovation board was listed, with a transaction amount of 47.97 billion yuan, accounting for half of the total transaction amount of the science and technology innovation board on that day, ranking the fourth in the history of a shares, second only to PetroChina, Ping An of China and China Motor Corporation, and also becoming the technology shares with the highest market value of a shares.

However, at the same time, the core concept plate fell by 9.55%, and all 38 concept stocks fell. Among them, Zhonghuan shares and Changdian science and Technology Co., Ltd. had their main outflow of nearly 700 million yuan.

"From the perspective of industry sectors, the industries with a large adjustment range today are those that have increased more in the early stage, and some stocks in the components have already appeared bubble traces, such as medicine, consumer services and food and beverage. The industry with the largest adjustment in the past five days is TMT, with an average adjustment rate of - 9%. " Yinhua Fund analysis pointed out.

Northbound funds continue to flow out. Wind data showed that as of the closing, the net outflow of northbound funds was RMB 6.92 billion, including RMB 2.372 billion from Shanghai Stock connect and RMB 4.549 billion from Shenzhen Stock connect.

Data show that this week's northward capital game intensified significantly. Wind data showed that after a net inflow of 6.85 billion yuan on Monday, the capital outflow of Beishang capital on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday was 17.384 billion yuan, 2.706 billion yuan and 6.92 billion yuan respectively. In the four trading days this week, the total net outflow of funds from Beishang reached 20.159 billion yuan.

However, since July, there has been a net inflow of funds, with a total inflow of 38.357 billion yuan, showing a state of "Shanghai strong, deep weak".

Since July, Beishang capital has reduced its holdings in food and beverage, leisure services and electronics, and increased its holdings in non bank finance, machinery and equipment, chemical industry and other sectors.

"The market has been adjusted for three consecutive trading days. On the one hand, the correction of the previous rapid upward trend has released the pressure of large profit taking; on the other hand, the resonance of multiple negative factors in the near future has caused the market to fall together." On July 16, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said.

In his view, the factors that affected the market's decline on July 16 included several aspects: first, the index had risen rapidly before, and a large number of profit taking had been accumulated; second, the reduction of some institutions' holdings and policy signals caused investors' concern; third, foreign investment continued to flow out in the near future and took profits.

In the first half of July, the chief analysts of medium-sized securities companies announced that the growth rate of medium-sized securities companies reached 16.0% in the first half of July, which was obviously caused by the consistent market growth strategy of 16.0% in the first half of July. In addition, it believes that SMIC's IPO triggered "pumping effect" also has an impact.

Equity Fund "bullet" to be admitted

Despite the deep adjustment of a shares on July 16, from the perspective of comprehensive institutions, most of them are optimistic about the future market.

AXA fund of Shanghai Pudong Bank believes that although the short-term market has increased more rapidly, the adjustment pressure accumulated in the early stage has been released after adjustment, and the medium and long-term trend of A-share market is still good.

"At present, the situation of the improvement of the economy on a month on month basis is obvious, and the enterprise performance has the momentum of the month on month improvement." Its representation.

Yinhua Fund said that after carefully analyzing the economic situation, liquidity and valuation level at the current time point, it remained optimistic about the medium and long-term performance of the future market.

It said that short-term events do not change the medium and long-term fundamentals of the good, still maintain the sustained recovery of corporate profits, next year may have a higher growth judgment.

Respondents generally believe that, from a macro perspective, the overall liquidity will not be significantly tightened under the uncertain recovery of employment and economy.

However, individual overvalued plates may be under pressure.

Some institutional sources pointed out that the central bank had previously tightened the capital interest rate marginally, with the social financing target of 30 trillion yuan in the whole year and 20 trillion yuan in the first half of the year. It is expected that the margin of social financing will decline in the future, but there will still be a strong growth rate, and the "broad credit" environment will weaken, which may have some pressure on the high valuation sectors.

According to the analysis of this person, the overall stock market has risen in the past month, and the valuation has risen rapidly, and the valuation is still at a high level after recent adjustment. However, from the perspective of structure, the industry differentiation is still relatively significant. After considering the performance growth in 2021, the valuation gap is still at the historical high, the consumer and technology valuation is at the historical high, and the finance and cycle are at the historical low, which needs to be carefully screened.

For the July 16 pullback, the aforementioned strategic analysts said that the preliminary judgment is the adjustment in the bull market.

It is suggested to pay attention to the medium and long-term development direction of the financial industry. First, the big financial sector is still in a relatively undervalued position, and the economic recovery is gradually confirmed. There is still a dance in big finance, such as securities companies, insurance, banks, etc.; second, the layout of some science and technology fields with clear industrial evolution trend is under adjustment, such as new energy vehicles, consumer electronics, etc Its judgment.

Yang Delong believes that from the overall point of view, the short-term sharp fall in the A-share market will not change the trend in the medium term. At present, it is important to seize the good stocks in the market, and this round of market adjustment also provides an opportunity for investors who failed in the early stage to get on the bus.

Seize the opportunity to adjust the organization

In the face of market adjustment, institutions are also seizing the opportunity to adjust their positions.

Li Kejie, general manager of Guangzhou Quanhong fund, told reporters of the 21st century economic report that he would reduce the positions of those who had increased too much in the early stage and increase their positions in the industries which were greatly affected by the epidemic.

It believes that after the sharp fall on July 16, the market may not be as fierce as the previous period, slow bull is better, there is no need to panic.

Zhang Zihua, chairman and chief investment officer of Yunyi assets, told reporters of the 21st century economic report that after the gem came out of the rare eight consecutive positive, its index has deviated by more than 30% from the 60 day average. This is also a very rare situation in history. When the small train of risk comes, only reducing the position can reduce the loss. For the market, this is the first time that GEM has doubled from its bottom in 2018. Market style changes to shock adjustment.

In the early stage, the fund balance will continue to increase with the boom of funds. This will be the market trend can not be ignored.

Industrial Securities research that incremental capital inflow will be the main line of the market.

It pointed out that the increase of financing balance in the first two weeks of July was 61.2 billion / 139.2 billion, with the weekly growth rate reaching the fastest level after the equity market bull market in 2015; the total financing scale was nearly 1.4 trillion, still lower than the peak level of 2.2 trillion yuan in 2015.

In addition, the scale of ETF on the floor has reached a new high recently, and fund explosion has been frequent.

In the near future, the net fund raising rate of ETF is only RMB 7.7 billion, and the total fund raised by ETF is expected to flow to 7.7 billion yuan in the near future Continue to enter the site.

Zhang Zihua also believes that in terms of operation, there are still a large number of public and private funds waiting to build positions, and the launch of the science and technology innovation board index will drive the relevant passive ETF funds to raise and build positions. Their target is the main line behind. Therefore, it is suggested to control the position and find the layout opportunities of the above-mentioned target after adjustment and stabilization.

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