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What Is The Impact Of Sino US Relations On PTA Price?

2020/8/6 13:33:00 4

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Although in 2019, with the increase of communication between China and the United States, in early 2020, China and the United States began to shake hands and reach an agreement. However, with the development of the new epidemic in 2020, Sino US relations are tense again. Especially after the Sino US cross-border consulates, Chinese investors' concerns about the "unreliable" style of US President trump are heating up again.

However, how much of the impact of terminal export will be transmitted to the upstream PTA of textile and garment industry? From the perspective of PTA price changes, in fact, Sino US trade friction has more emotional impact on the market. For example, after the "xite club" at the end of June 2019, in two or three trading days, the contract price of pta1909, which was slightly weak at that time, was directly pushed up from 5900 yuan / ton to 6600 yuan / ton, and then quickly fell back, opening a long bear market.

Now, the change of Sino US relations once again makes investors worry about the export demand in the future market. Two years ago, the two sides of the trade are not willing to move according to the situation of the textile market friction. This is the last part of the US tariff increase. Because textile and garment industry is really related to people's livelihood, it is not wise to impose high tariffs on people, which will make people have to pay for it, thus affecting people's daily consumption. Therefore, the relationship between China and the United States is not the biggest factor affecting the export of textile and clothing. What investors should really worry about is that the epidemic situation in the United States has not improved, and whether the U.S. clothing consumer market still needs a lot of textile and clothing products from China.

From the supply side, Luoyang Petrochemical's 325000 ton unit was shut down for maintenance on July 27, and Jiaxing Petrochemical had not been restarted after shutdown on July 12. As of July 30, the weekly operating rate of PTA was 83.75%, still at a high level. However, compared with the situation of overhauling in August, the surplus supply of PTA is still limited. In addition, Shanghai Yadong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. also joined the army of maintenance in August, and planned to stop for maintenance for about 3 days at the end of August. If the maintenance plan in August can be carried out normally, it is expected that the operating rate will be lowered, and the accumulated pressure of PTA will be relieved, or a small amount of storage will be removed.

Of course, we should also see the positive side. China's economy is slowly recovering.

2. For the first time in this year, the total operating revenue and total profit of state-owned enterprises increased year on year. According to the data released by the Ministry of Finance on July 23, the total operating revenue of state-owned enterprises increased by 7.1% in June compared with the same period last year, and the total profits increased by 6.0% compared with the same period last year.

At the same time, domestic textile enterprises are accelerating the survival of the fittest. According to the survey of textile enterprises in Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong and other places, since July, some small and medium-sized enterprises have started to worry. But there are still some strong, high-tech enterprises are still accelerating the development, these enterprises seize the market gap left by the withdrawal of small and medium-sized enterprises.

In fact, the market has ushered in a turning point and is waiting for an opportunity. It may be from September to October of the "golden nine silver decade"; it may be after the overseas epidemic situation has been controlled; it may be when the Sino US trade dispute has made some progress. In short, just as we feel the pressure is coming, market opportunities may be coming.