Semi Annual Report Of Multinational Pharmaceutical Enterprises: Policy Superimposed Epidemic Situation "Drag" Growth Rate And Innovative Pharmaceutical Success Highlights

Under the background of the global epidemic of pneumonia, the report card of the world's major pharmaceutical enterprises is more concerned about this year.

As of August 11, according to the incomplete statistics of the 21st century economic report, the revenue of large multinational pharmaceutical enterprises has been affected to varying degrees, and the growth rate has generally slowed down or declined. Even Roche, Pfizer, Gilead, Bayer pharmaceutical and other factors have caused sales to decline due to the epidemic situation, which is a rare situation in recent years.

Evaluate Pharma estimates that the impact of covid-19 will reduce biopharmaceutical sales by $7.85 billion in 2020, with 60% of the losses borne by the top 15 companies. The $1.7 billion epidemic will affect the revenue in Saudi Arabia.

In the short term, however, the demand for innovation is still driving the market. It can also be seen from the financial reports that the performance is increasingly dependent on the listing and pulling of heavy drugs, and the biopharmaceutical business has increased to varying degrees. Such as Luo's patuzumab, PD-L1 drug tecentriq, multiple sclerosis drug ocrevus, hemophilia drug hemlibra growth is still bright.

It is estimated that the sales of pharmate and other drugs will reach US $90.4 billion by 2020, among which, the sales of pharmate and other high-performance drugs will reach US $90.7 billion by 2020.

New ways of working and adapting to the global epidemic of pneumonia are casting a long shadow on the industry. From drug research and development, clinical trials, review and approval to marketing and sales, the rhythm of everything is alternately disrupted and reorganized. Large pharmaceutical enterprises bear the brunt of this remodeling movement and also benefit from it.

Superimposed influence of multiple factors

Despite the decline in pharmaceutical and diagnostic sales, Roche was still the top revenue earner in the pharmaceutical sector in the first half of the year. In the first half of 2020, Roche's total revenue was 29.3 billion Swiss francs, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. Among them, the pharmaceutical business income was 22.2 billion Swiss francs, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. Roche Q2 was seriously affected by the epidemic, and the sales volume of Roche Q2 fell sharply in recent years for the first time, with a serious decline of 15% in May.

Roche said pharmaceutical sales rose 1% driven by new marketed drugs (+ 37%), including innovative drugs such as tecentriq, hemlibra, ocrevus and perjeta. In the first half of 2020, the sales volume of herxatin / magnetron declined by 23%, while the sales of herxactin decreased by 23% in the first half of 2020.

Roche's international market grew by 11%, driven by Russia and China. China's growth was attributed to perjeta and alecensa, but this was offset by the sharp price reduction in healthcare negotiations and the impact of the epidemic on the sales of the three major drugs.

Pfizer's revenue in the second quarter of 2020 was 11.8 billion US dollars, down 9%; in the first half of 2020, the revenue was 23.829 billion US dollars, down 10%. However, the biopharmaceutical business grew by 9% with revenue of $19.802 billion, mainly driven by drugs such as vyndaqel / vyndamax, eliquis, ibrance and inlyta.

Among them, puqiang, the non patent drug sector, is still in decline, with a year-on-year drop of 31% in the first half of the year, mainly due to the loss of the exclusive management right of Lyrica in the United States; however, it is amazing that puqiang has increased by 17% in China, which is still benefited from Lipitor and Norvasc, which are out of the market in volume procurement.

According to iqvia2020's hospital market data in the first quarter, Lipitor, once the "king of hospital sales" for many years, has fallen to No. 8, down 19.5% year-on-year. Even so, Lipitor has made great contributions to Pfizer.

Bayer is another company that points out that China's pharmaceutical policy has a significant impact on sales. In the second quarter, Bayer pharmaceutical's revenue fell 8.8% to 3.992 billion euro. On the one hand, Bayer pointed out that the hospital operation was limited due to covid-19, and part of the treatment was delayed, resulting in limited product sales; on the other hand, China's purchase policy with volume greatly reduced the price of acarbose (betangping), a diabetes drug. At that time, Bayer successfully won the bid with a low price of 0.181 yuan / tablet, with a drop rate of 91.56%, which directly led to a substantial drop of 73.8% in sales This is offset by the resulting increase in sales.

Also on the list of the decline is the first half of this year's top two gillid. In addition to the continued decline in the sales of anti HCV drugs, weiruide's new anti HCV drug portfolio has a negative impact. In the second quarter of 2020, the total sales of Geely's products will drop by 10% to $5.1 billion, and 3% to $10.5 billion in the first half of 2020, which will be $5.6 billion and $10.8 billion respectively in the same period of 2019.

In the first half of the year, Bojian, a pharmaceutical company with news, had a revenue of 3.682 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 2%, but in the first half of the year, its revenue was 7.215 billion US dollars, a sharp decline of 27.3%. The sales volume of spinraza, a spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) drug, in Q2 was 495 million US dollars, an increase of only 1% and a total of 1.060 billion US dollars in the first half of the year.

On August 7, Bojian and Weicai announced that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) had accepted the application for the marketing license of aducanumab, a new drug for Alzheimer's disease, and granted it priority for review.

A major factor that makes pharmaceutical companies' financial reports look good is innovative drugs. For example, Novartis innovative drugs division's revenue was $18.943 billion, up 5% year-on-year. It was driven by the heart failure drug entresto, spinal muscular atrophy drug zolgensma, rheumatoid arthritis treatment drug cosentyx and breast cancer drug kiscali. For example, Johnson & Johnson's pharmaceutical business still relies on the rapid decline of 21.1% in device business The revenue of imbruvica, darzalex, stelara and other innovative drugs reached US $21.886 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%.

Another driver that makes the financial report bright is mergers and acquisitions. After the completion of the acquisition of new base, the revenue of Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) rose 61% in the second quarter of 2020, and increased 71% in the first half of 2020 to 20.91 billion US dollars. Among them, Revlimid (lenalidomide) sales of US $5.799 billion (+ 10%), eliquis (apixaban) sales of $4.804 billion (+ 21%), but opdivo's first half revenue fell 6% to $3419 million, far lower than keyruda's $6.672 billion (+ 38%). "O, K war" further widened the gap.

Tumors and rare diseases

In the second quarter, global biopharmaceutical share prices seemed to have shrunk off the impact of the epidemic.

Evaluate Pharma analyzed 579 listed pharmaceutical companies in the world, excluding those IPO only in 2020. In 2019, the total market value of these pharmaceutical companies was about $4.58 trillion. In 2020, Q1 fell by $464 billion, while Q2 increased by $654 billion.

In the first half of 2020, Lilly, Abercrombie and AstraZeneca were the biggest stock gainers; Pfizer, Merck and BMS were the three largest declines. And as the new coronavirus continues to attract investors' attention, biopharmaceutical stocks are still in a strong position in the second half of the year.

At present, the prediction of the worst impact on the drug development process has not been fully revealed. Some clinical trials have been suspended or delayed, but most of the work is back on track, and more companies are accepting telecommuting.

It is not clear to what extent this pandemic will affect drug approval, which is the lifeblood of the pharmaceutical industry. The FDA approved 29 new drugs in the first half of the year, in line with the pace of operation in the past few years.

Clinical research all over the world is faced with two difficulties: one is the initiation of clinical research projects, the other is to improve the operational efficiency. In an interview with the 21st century economic report, Wang Xuan, head of Takeda Asian Development Center, said that under the epidemic situation, "clinical operations should be prepared in times of safety. Takeda classifies ongoing projects around the world. Some projects actively stop to avoid resource competition with hospitals and medical staff; some projects are life-saving and will continue to pay close attention to them and actively promote them. There has been no new clinical trial in Takeda for a long time. There are five world leading clinical trials in China. In the near future, at least, it will be a process of mutual support. "

In the future, cancer will still be the "King", and the status of drugs for rare diseases will continue to rise.

Evaluate Pharma expects global prescription drug sales to grow at a CAGR of 7.4% from 2020 to 2026. Roche will reach $61 billion in sales in 2026, making it the top pharmaceutical company in the world.

Oncology remains a leading area of R & D investment, with an estimated expenditure of $82 billion, more than three times that of any other sector. The spending is expected to receive 152 new FDA approvals and $311 billion in drug sales in 2026. By 2026, cancer will account for 21.7% of the total drug sales, and the sales of immune tumor will increase to US $94.7 billion from 2019 to 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 20.2%.

The orphan drug market is expected to double from $127 billion in 2019 to $255 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.8% in 2020-2026. The big pharma makers will target disease areas that have fewer patients and are more vertical.

In addition, between 2020 and 2026, many drugs are facing patent expiration, and the sales of US $252 billion are at risk. Among them, Humira, the drug king for many years, will drop out of the top 10 in the world and the United States by 2026 due to the listing of several similar adalimumab drugs in European, American and Chinese markets.

Patents for the blockbuster drugs perjeta, Prolia, xgeva, xeljanz, farxiga and yervoy will expire in 2025, while patents for eliquis and prevnar 13 will expire in 2026.

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