Zheng Mian Moved Up Slowly
At present, the growth of new cotton in China is good, Xinjiang production is expected to rise slightly; the seedling situation of the United States turns bad, and USDA reports negative market. The global cotton supply is sufficient, the most difficult time of demand has passed, Zheng cotton price center will gradually rise.
Xinjiang cotton increased slightly
By the end of June 2020, the national cotton boll picking area and cotton boll growing area are expected to increase in advance. If the weather is normal in the later period, it is estimated that the yield of new cotton will be 127.2 kg / mu in 2020, up 4.3% year on year, and the total output will be 5.809 million tons, down 0.6% year on year.
If the weather is normal in the later period, it is estimated that the average yield of cotton per unit area in 2020 will be 127.2 kg / mu, which will be 0.2% lower than that of this year's actual planting area survey, 4.3% higher than that of last three years, and 2.7% higher than the average in recent three years. According to the survey results of 45.682 million mu in May by the national cotton market monitoring system, it is estimated that China's total cotton output will be 5.809 million tons in 2020, which will be 12000 tons less than the actual planting area survey results, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% and a decrease of 3.6% compared with the average of the last three years.
It is worth noting that China's cotton production is mainly concentrated in Xinjiang, which accounts for more than 85% of the national cotton output, and is still increasing rapidly in recent years. As long as Xinjiang's output is guaranteed, there will be no big problem in domestic cotton supply. The survey results showed that compared with the survey in May, the output increased by 1.8% month on month, reaching 5.063 million tons.
The survey shows that: first, the national weather conditions are suitable for cotton growth as a whole, with mild weather disasters. From the regional perspective, 97.4% of the farmers in the northwest inland cotton region reported that the weather was good and average, up 38.2% year-on-year; 94.7% of the farmers reported mild disasters, up 11.2% year-on-year. Secondly, 99.2% of the surveyed households reported mild occurrence of diseases, with a year-on-year increase of 9.7% and an increase of 6.7% compared with the average of the last three years; 95.8% of the farmers reported mild occurrence of insect pests, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7% and an increase of 6.8% compared with the average in recent three years. Thirdly, the number of fruit branches, budding and bolls increased year on year, and the time of scale picking was expected to be normal or ahead of schedule.
The situation in the United States is getting worse
According to the U.S. cotton production report released by the U.S. Department of agriculture on August 10, 2020, the budding rate of U.S. cotton was 96%, 1% lower than that of the same period last year, and the same as the average value of the past five years. The progress of cotton Bolling in the United States was 71%, 1% lower than the same period last year and 1% higher than the average value in the past five years. Cotton boll opening progress in the United States was 9%, 8% lower than the same period last year and 2% lower than the average value in the past five years. 42% of the U.S. cotton grew well, 3% less than the previous week and 14% lower than the same period last year. Among them, the excellent rate of Dezhou was 22%, 3% lower than that of the previous week, and the poor seedling rate was 35%, increased by 11% compared with the previous week.
According to the USDA report, from July 24 to 30, 2020, the net contracted amount of Upland Cotton in the United States is - 15500 tons in 2019 / 2020, which is significantly lower than the average value of the previous week and four weeks. The new contracts are mainly from Egypt, Malaysia and China. In 2020 / 2021, the contracted net export volume of Upland Cotton in the United States is 29700 tons, and the buyers are China and Vietnam. In 2019 / 2020, the U.S. upland cotton freight volume is 78600 tons, 8% higher than the previous week and 13% higher than the average value of the previous four weeks. The net amount of horse skin signed in 2020 is zero in the United States. In 2020 / 2021, the net contracted volume of Pima cotton in the United States is 3016 tons. In 2019 / 2020, the U.S. Pima cotton freight volume is 3697 tons, significantly higher than the average value of the previous week and the previous four weeks, mainly to India and China.
US cotton production up
According to the USDA forecast in August, U.S. inventory at the beginning of the year 2020 / 2021, production and inventory at the end of the period will increase, while consumption will decrease. Cotton production in the United States increased by 3% month on month to 18.1 million bales. The first survey of cotton producing areas in the United States showed that the cotton harvest area in the United States decreased, but the yield per unit area increased year on year. The yield of cotton discarded in the United States was 24%, up from 16% last year. The average cotton yield per hectare in the United States is expected to reach a record 938 pounds / acre, up 14% year-on-year, due to reduced harvest areas in the southwest. In 2020 / 2021, global cotton production and final inventory will increase, while initial inventory, consumption and imports will decrease. The global output increased by 1.3 million bales, the consumption decreased by 1.2 million bales, the global import volume decreased by 260000 bales, and the global ending inventory increased by 2.1 million bales on a month on month basis, an increase of 4.4 million bales on a year-on-year basis.
To sum up, from the perspective of cotton price in 2001, the price of cotton will move to the end of this month.
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