The Textile Industry Should Give Full Play To The Advantages Of Production Capacity To Promote Export Growth In The First Half Of The Year, And Still Need To Stabilize The Basic Market Of Foreign Trade In The Whole Year!

In the first half of this year, in the face of the big test of the epidemic situation, the textile industry showed strong resilience and gave full play to the advantages of production capacity to promote export growth.

The new crown epidemic swept the world, which had a significant impact on the economic and trade patterns of various countries in the world, and disrupted the pace of China's textile and clothing import and export. In the first quarter, it mainly suffered from domestic production stoppage, personnel isolation and poor logistics. In the second quarter, it continued to face the risk of cancellation and reduction of orders. Production and export once fell sharply. The stable and solid textile and clothing industry chain and supply chain formed over the years have withstood severe tests.

Overview of the situation

With the help of a series of national policies and measures to stabilize foreign trade, since the second quarter, the vitality of the domestic market has been stimulated, the confidence of enterprises has been gradually restored, and the national trade in goods has stabilized. In June, the import and export have stopped falling and turned to rise, realizing the first growth in the year. In the first quarter, the export of textile and clothing decreased by 17.7%, and rose rapidly in the second quarter with an increase of 19.2%. In the first half of the year, the cumulative export of epidemic prevention materials reached 38.7 billion US dollars, accounting for 30.4% of the total exports. In just a few months, China's textile industry has been able to rapidly adjust production strategies, realize upstream and downstream matching, produce and transfer a large number of epidemic prevention materials to meet the global centralized and large demand, which once again confirms the advantages of China's textile and clothing industry in production and supply.

In the second half of the year, the epidemic situation and other negative factors remained unchanged, and exports were still facing a lot of pressure.

The current epidemic situation is not over, and there is a tendency of long-term coexistence with human beings. Political and economic decisions of all countries in the world will inevitably focus on the epidemic situation. The epidemic situation is still the most uncertain factor affecting the development of foreign trade in the second half of the year. As a result, the external environment of China's foreign trade tends to be severe and complex, and the export will face more and newer challenges: global economic integration is hindered, The trend of unilateralization and regionalization is increasingly prominent; normal economic and trade exchanges and exhibitions will be restricted in a long period of time; the main market consumption downturn, frequent bankruptcies and closures of brand stores, and serious overstocking of inventory are bound to lead to no obvious improvement in the sales of traditional bulk commodities. It is preliminarily predicted that the situation of orders in autumn is difficult to improve, and the export of bulk commodities is still lower in the third quarter. The export of epidemic prevention materials will still maintain a high scale, but the growth rate will slow down. Judging from a comprehensive perspective, there is not enough room for export to rise in the third and fourth quarters, and there is still great pressure to stabilize and recover in the whole year.

To relieve the crisis and rescue, we should make efforts to help enterprises to overcome difficulties.

In the face of the epidemic situation, the Party Central Committee and the State Council attached great importance to scientific decision-making and strict deployment to quickly stop the spread of the epidemic. In order to ensure production and foreign trade export, various ministries and commissions and local government departments were organized to issue a series of policies and measures to steadily promote the resumption of work and production, stabilize foreign trade, stabilize foreign investment and promote consumption. We will provide accurate assistance to enterprises from the following aspects: unblocking foreign trade transportation channels, reducing logistics costs of import and export links, reducing taxes and fees, facilitating tax rebates, supporting the development of new forms and models of foreign trade, strengthening export credit insurance, supporting domestic sales of export products, and promoting employment. In view of the current situation of limited personnel exchange activities and inability to hold physical exhibitions, this paper uses the situation of holding online Canton Fair, promoting online live broadcast and cloud exhibition to help enterprises grasp business opportunities and reduce exhibition costs. The State Council issued the implementation opinions on supporting the transformation of export to domestic sales, helping enterprises to open up the domestic market and build a new development pattern of mutual promotion of domestic and international dual circulation.

In the face of the problems in the second half of the year, the industry calls for: it is suggested that the state further launch specific assistance measures to stabilize the basic foreign trade market, provide financing channels for the majority of small and medium-sized enterprises, and reduce the financing threshold and cost. We will promote market diversification and accelerate cooperation and development with countries along the belt and road. We will further optimize the business environment, improve the level of trade facilitation, and speed up the customs clearance of export commodities. Strengthen the standardized management and tax system of domestic market, provide financial support, and actively participate in cross-border e-commerce sales and online exhibitions. In the second half of the year, China's textile export policy is expected to achieve better results.

Trade data

In June, the total import and export value of China's goods trade was 380.73 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year (the same below) increase of 1.5%, including export of 213.57 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.5%, imports of 167.15 billion US dollars, an increase of 2.7%, and a trade surplus of 46.42 billion US dollars in the month. From January to June, the total value of imports and exports was 2029.69 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%. Among them, exports were 1098.75 billion US dollars, down 6.2%, while imports were 930.95 billion US dollars, down 7.1%, realizing a cumulative surplus of 167.8 billion US dollars.

In June, the textile and clothing trade volume reached 31.17 billion US dollars, an increase of 17%. Among them, exports were 29.42 billion US dollars, an increase of 19.4%, imports of 1.74 billion US dollars, a decrease of 12.9%, and a trade surplus of 27.68 billion US dollars, an increase of 22.2%. From January to June 2020, the trade volume of textiles and clothing reached 138.29 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%. Among them, exports were 127.33 billion US dollars, up 2.5%; imports were 10.96 billion US dollars, down 9.4%; the accumulated trade surplus was 116.37 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.7%.

Trade characteristics

In the first half of 2020, the import and export of textiles and clothing presents the following characteristics:

First, the epidemic situation is the most important factor affecting the export of textile and clothing in the first half of the year.

In the first half of 2020, the new crown epidemic disrupted the pace of China's textile and clothing foreign trade, and became the main factor leading to export fluctuations. In March, China's export of traditional goods fell sharply, resulting in a severe decline in domestic production. At the same time, the epidemic gave birth to the rapid expansion of our epidemic prevention assets and sales, which to a large extent made up for the loss caused by the decline in demand. From April to June, driven by epidemic prevention materials, textile and clothing exports achieved double-digit growth for three consecutive months, effectively driving the overall export growth in the first half of the year.

2. There is a sharp contrast between general trade and processing trade exports, with foreign aid and epidemic prevention materials totaling 240 million US dollars.

General trade exports achieved double-digit growth for three consecutive months, with an increase of 25.2% in June. Processing trade continued to decline, falling more than 30% from April to June and 32% in June. From January to June, the cumulative export of general trade increased by 6.4%, while the processing trade decreased by 32.2%.

Since the epidemic spread to the world, the Chinese government has always attached great importance to foreign aid. In the first half of the year, through the two trade modes of free aid and donation from international organizations and other overseas donations, a total of 240 million US dollars of textile and clothing epidemic prevention materials were provided to the world, including masks, protective clothing, medical gloves, shoe covers, medical surgical caps, cotton swabs, cotton balls and cotton sticks.

Third, the export of traditional bulk commodities to the main markets has declined in an all-round way, and Japan has taken the lead in restoring diversified regional procurement of clothing.

In the first half of the year, China's exports to the three major markets, the European Union, the United States and Japan, all increased by 42.5%, 5.8% and 16% respectively. The growth mainly comes from the promotion of epidemic prevention materials. The proportion of epidemic prevention materials exports in the three markets reached 50.3%, 42% and 28.8% respectively. Affected by the continuous spread of the epidemic situation and the economic downturn, the demand for consumer goods market shrank sharply. The exports of traditional bulk commodities, including yarn, fabric and knitted and woven garments, to the main markets declined by 20.2%, 35% and 13.6%, respectively, reaching double-digit levels. As China's main textile export market, ASEAN is also subject to the reduction of downstream clothing consumption demand, and the import of yarn fabrics from China continues to decline. In the first half of the year, China's cumulative exports of textiles and clothing to ASEAN decreased by 9.1%, of which yarn fabrics decreased by 24%.

Judging from the recent monthly trend, China's textile exports to Europe, the United States and Japan reached a peak from March to May when the global epidemic broke out, and fell back in June. In June, the decline of clothing exports to the EU and the United States slowed down, which can also be verified from the import data of market countries: in June, the decline rate of clothing imports from China in the United States shrank to 7.3% of the single digit; the data of the European Union in June is not seen now, but it is expected that the trend will be the same as that of the United States. The decline in exports to Japan widened again, falling by 25.3% in June (down 10.5% in May). From Japan's import data, Japan took the lead in resuming procurement from other regions. The share of Chinese products fell rapidly after reaching a high point in May, while the share of ASEAN increased significantly.

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4. The structure of export commodities has changed significantly, and the scale of textile export driven by anti epidemic materials such as masks exceeds that of clothing.

In the first half of the year, the structure of textile and clothing exports changed significantly: driven by epidemic prevention materials, textile exports expanded rapidly, with a cumulative export of 74.62 billion US dollars, an increase of 27.3%, and its proportion in total exports rose to 58.6%, surpassing that of clothing. Clothing exports totaled US $52.71 billion, down 19.7%, accounting for 41.4%. The total exports of anti epidemic materials such as masks and protective clothing amounted to 38.74 billion US dollars, accounting for 30.4% of the total exports. Among them, masks and protective clothing were exported for us $30.5 billion and US $4.04 billion respectively.

The downturn in market demand led to a rapid decline in traditional commodity exports. In addition to epidemic prevention materials, the export of bulk commodities, mainly including yarn, fabric and knitwear, decreased by 31.5%, 29.6% and 21% respectively. Among them, the performance of yarn and fabric is more weak, the export value has been negative growth for five consecutive months, and there is still no obvious rebound in June. Although the export of knitwear clothing also experienced a continuous decline, the export situation in June was significantly improved, with a year-on-year decrease of 10% and a month on month increase of 47%.

5. There are obvious differences in the export of key provinces and cities, and the growth rate of Beijing and Hubei continues to lead.

In the first half of the year, the top ten export provinces and cities were Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanghai, Fujian, Hubei, Beijing, Anhui and Guangxi. Total exports accounted for nearly 90% of total exports. Among them, the cumulative export of Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian and Guangxi decreased, and the other six provinces and cities all achieved growth, of which Hubei and Beijing increased by 129% and 263% respectively.

6. The import of bulk commodities continued to decline.

In the first half of the year, the import of textile and clothing showed a downward trend as a whole. Only in February and March, the import was driven by epidemic prevention materials, which showed a double-digit decline continuously from April to June after the domestic epidemic situation stabilized. Imports of bulk commodities continued to decline, with the cumulative imports of yarns and fabrics falling by 25.4% and 32.6% respectively, and that of knitted and woven garments decreased by 9.6%. The decrease was mainly driven by the import volume. The import volume of the three categories of commodities decreased by 17.3%, 35.8% and 16.2% respectively. The average import price only decreased, while the fabric and clothing kept increasing.

7. In the first half of the year, cotton imports dropped by more than 20%, and the domestic and foreign cotton prices were inverted.

In June, cotton imports rebounded slightly, with an import of 90000 tons in that month, an increase of nearly 30% compared with may, but a year-on-year decrease of 42.7% was still at a low level. Affected by the sluggish demand of the downstream market, the cotton import volume in the first half of the year dropped sharply, with a cumulative import of 899000 tons, a decrease of 23.8%. Since the signing of the first stage economic and trade agreement between China and the United States, China has fully and strictly implemented the agreement, and cotton imports from the United States have continued to rise rapidly. In the first half of the year, 293000 tons of cotton were imported from the United States, an increase of 20.5%. Among them, the import volume from April to June surpassed that of Brazil and once again became the largest cotton import source country in China.

According to the analysis of China Cotton Association, in June, China's economic operation was stable, and the central reserve cotton rotation policy was released at the end of the month in 2020, but the textile market entered the traditional off-season, spot transactions slowed down, and cotton prices rose slightly; affected by the rebound of epidemic situation in some foreign countries and the US Department of agriculture (USDA) released that the actual planting area of American cotton in 2020 / 21 would decrease by 11.3%, the international cotton price would fluctuate frequently The price is higher than that in China. At the end of the month, China's cotton price index (ccindex3128b) was 11866 yuan / ton, up 57 yuan from the end of last month; the monthly average price was 11958 yuan / ton, up 314 yuan month on month, down 2189 yuan year on year. China's import cotton price index FC index m was 68.34 cents / pound, up 0.56 cents month on month. At the end of the month, it was 67.84 cents / pound, higher than 1.58 cents / pound at the end of the previous month. The 1% tariff was reduced to 11883 yuan / ton, which was 17 yuan higher than that of domestic spot goods in the same period. The domestic and foreign cotton prices were inverted.