The Second Half Of The Property Market: Policy And Housing Prices Stabilize

With the development of China's real estate market in 2020, the government's control means will be more abundant and its ability will be more mature, and the fluctuation range of house price will be smaller and more stable.

At the six-party talks of Boao · 21st century real estate forum held on August 8, "the second half and the second half: detour opportunities and safe development", the participants expressed the above views.

In the second half of the real estate industry, from the incremental era to the stock age, when the radical pursuit of scale growth and seize the territory of the development mode is outdated, it will be more and more difficult for real estate enterprises to expand their territory or overtake on the curve; at the same time, they change from the pursuit of scale to the improvement of efficiency, thinking about how to safely cross the economic cycle.

The ability to balance scale, benefit and risk has become the focus of real estate enterprises.

Entering a stable long period

What "plot" will be staged in the second half of the year after the real estate market has survived the epidemic? From a further cycle point of view, in the second half of the real estate industry, is there any chance of overtaking on a curve? At the six-party talks, the helmsmen of real estate enterprises expressed their opinions.

Lin Zhong, chairman of the board of directors of Xuhui Holding Co., Ltd., believes that in general, the real estate market in the second half of this year is mainly stable, and the volume and price are relatively stable; secondly, the future real estate market should be divided into cities and structures, with some cities hotter and others colder, but there will be no big ups and downs.

He stressed that this year should be to stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, and that "stabilizing prices and ensuring quantity" is the starting point of the government's policies. One city, one policy will be tight and loose.

Tang Xiaodong, director of Zhongnan Construction and vice president of Zhongnan real estate, also believes that according to the data of various real estate enterprises in the first half of the year, the overall sales volume in 2020 should keep up with that in 2019, but the maintenance of the volume may not necessarily bring about an increase in price. "Housing does not fry" policy guidance, prices will be relatively stable.

The stable prediction of the market in the second half of the year is closely related to the government's regulatory ability, because with the changes of the market, the government's regulatory means are becoming more and more flexible and mature.

Zhang Jinyuan, assistant president of Jindi group and senior vice president of Jindi group, said: "I judge that the market will be relatively stable because I believe in the government's ability to regulate and control."

He said the past three years should have been the most stable and the most healthy market. The de inventory cycle of real estate enterprises is the lowest, with an average of about 12-13 months in the whole country. The prices are also the most stable. From the national level, they are basically small growth.

From the difficulty of overtaking by real estate enterprises, we can see that the market is gradually mature and stable. Zhang Jinyuan believes that it will be very difficult to overtake on the curve in the future, with fewer and fewer opportunities, because the market has gradually matured.

According to his analysis, the list of the top 20 real estate enterprises in 2008 has changed greatly compared with the current situation. Eight of the top 20 companies in the 2008 list may have disappeared. However, in the past three years, the top 5 real estate enterprises have not changed in addition to ranking.

Hu Ruoxiang, vice president of Longhu group, also said that in 2018, the real estate market entered a stable period. The market bid farewell to the small cycle of large fluctuations in the past and entered a long cycle. As one of the enterprises, this time node should keep restraint and reduce the mentality of gambling.

When Tang Xiaoding competes for high-quality real estate resources, it becomes more and more narrow. In this case, overtaking on a curve is dangerous.

Lin Zhong concluded that the real estate industry is twice the result with half the effort if the real estate industry goes along with the situation, while doing things against the trend is twice the result with half the effort. In the stable growth period, if we want to achieve unconventional and leapfrog development, the challenges and risks are far greater than in the high-speed growth period. A stable growth model should be found for real estate enterprises.

Quality growth

When no longer seeking rough scale expansion, focusing on the second half of long-term development, balancing scale growth, risk and efficiency has become a must for real estate enterprises.

Lin Zhong believes that the growth should have a reasonable speed to ensure that the growth is sustainable, stable and of quality. Quality growth should be reflected in the increase of enterprise profitability, the reduction of debt risk and the improvement of products and services.

Tang Xiaodong shared three main aspects of thinking. First of all, we should stabilize the basic market and have our own deep ploughing areas. Secondly, we should control the business risks and attach great importance to customers.

Jiang anzao, general manager of Greentown group, believes that high-quality development and the pursuit of scale are both enemies and friends. He said that quality development needs to pay attention to several red lines: product red line, service red line and financial indicator red line. Under the condition that these indicators are healthy and up to standard, it is also in line with the trend to pursue the development of scale.

Zhang Jinyuan, on the other hand, believes that to balance scale and benefit, it is necessary to have a reasonable expectation for the growth of scale, and secondly, a reasonable expectation for the level of profit.

At present, the means of regulation and control in major cities are more and more abundant and mature. When making profit expectation and project research and judgment, real estate enterprises should adjust with the changes of the market. For example, in Beijing and Shanghai, according to the investment standards of most developers, the net profit is 10% and the IRR (internal rate of return) is 20%, but no company should be able to achieve it.

Zhang Jinyuan pointed out that the main means of controlling the risk is to balance the growth rate. Many enterprises with high leverage and high debt are now under great pressure and even in danger of survival.

It coincides with Hu Ruoxiang, vice president of Longhu group. Zhang Jinyuan believes that it is necessary to do some more sustainable business to supplement the scale development in the future. For example, at present, about 15% - 20% of the annual investment of Jindi will be placed in the holding property.

Under this year's epidemic situation and industry cycle, the guests mentioned that the scale growth should keep the safety bottom line, and how to deal with the risks in the second half is crucial to the safety development of enterprises.

Lin believes that the biggest risk in the second half is the risk of uncertainty. There are unexpected things every year, including this year's epidemic. To deal with the risk of uncertainty, it is to maintain redundancy and reserve hands, so as to cope with the changes.

Similar to Lin Zhong's view, Fang Mingfu, CO president of Jinke real estate, said that uncertainty is the most difficult thing for enterprises to grasp now. Facing uncertainty is to respect the market, revere the market, respect customers, and strive to do well in themselves.

Jiang An Chuo said that real estate enterprises should regard all risks as the biggest risks, keep their operations steady at all times, and pay attention to prevention of all risks.

Tang Xiaodong believes that one of the many uncertainties is certain, that is, the basic spirit of "housing without speculation". Real estate enterprises should respect the policy and move forward steadily.

Zhang Jinyuan said that the core of real estate development is investment driven. Apart from uncertainties, the biggest risk is investment. In order to avoid making bigger mistakes in land purchase and merger, we must conduct more serious research and judgment.

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