Gem Opens A New Space For Stock Game

On August 24, the first day after the implementation of the registration system reform, the secondary market was hot.

Kangtai medical (300869. SZ), with the same name as Kangtai Biology (300601. SZ), made a 10 times increase on the first day of listing, and the largest increase in the last trading was nearly 30 times higher than that in the last day. The "wealth making" effect was obvious.

In contrast, there are also some reform beneficiaries in the stock companies, such as investors who hold four ceiling trading stocks, such as Jianrui Huaneng (300116. SZ) and Zhongqian shares (300526. SZ). At the same time, there are also a lot of lonely people, 24 or shenwutui (300156. SZ) and gem last farewell day.

The reform of gem stimulates the spontaneous survival of the fittest in the market, and forces listed companies to improve their operation quality, investment value and investment return through institutional reform.

On the other hand, the rise and fall of GEM companies were officially upgraded to 20% on the same day, and the original trading mode of "strike board" in secondary market changed accordingly, and the market game began to enter a new stage.

"At this stage, we can see several changes. Firstly, the market activity will be significantly improved; secondly, the original trading mode will be changed; finally, after the rise and fall is expanded, both institutional and individual investors will strengthen the research and selection of industry and company fundamentals." Tibet Linlang investment general manager Wang Lin said on the 24th.

In addition, 20% of the rise and fall also requires all participants in the market to have stronger psychological quality and price tolerance, so as to better adapt to the GEM market after reform.

Fundamentals, small market value for the first time

On the first day when the price limit rose to 20%, some GEM stocks which maintained an upward trend in the early stage benefited first.

On the same day, in addition to Jianrui Huaneng and Zhongqian shares, Tianzhong Jingji (300461. SZ) and Tianshan biological (300313. SZ) two companies had a ceiling limit of about 20%.

Among the four companies, Jianrui Huaneng and Tianshan bio are companies with obvious rising trend in the early stage, and the company or industry fundamentals have improved significantly recently.

Take Jianrui Huaneng as an example. Its main business was fire protection, and then it was transformed into a new energy vehicle power battery manufacturer. However, since 2018, the company's capital problem has revealed and it is on the verge of delisting.

Now, after bankruptcy reorganization, the shackles of previous debts have been completely freed. Recently, the company has also issued a notice to change its name to baolixin, which will be taken over by Gao Baoqing, general manager of Hunan Zhongli. There is no doubt that there is an expectation of improvement in the operation level of Jianrui voronair.

It is against this background that jianruiwo has been able to pull up continuously since August 19, and the top 20% rise on the 24th is just a continuation of the previous trend.

The recent trend of Tianshan biology is similar, but the driving force comes from the industry.

The company's main business is breeding cattle, dairy cattle and sheep. In 2019, the income of live animal products accounts for more than 70% of the revenue, while the terminal consumption market in the near future shows the characteristics of "no slack season".

Affected by the epidemic situation, the import speed of beef from abroad slowed down significantly. In addition, the domestic catering industry recovered rapidly, and the terminal demand increased, which pushed the terminal beef prices up continuously.

According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China's 500 markets, beef prices have risen for nine consecutive weeks since June. With the improvement of industry prosperity, after the secondary market amplification, Tianshan biological has been trading for three consecutive days since August 19.

In contrast, Tanaka precision machinery 24 top grid rise and the company, industry level changes are not related. Before the trading limit, the company's fundamental stock price was stable, during which the company's fundamentals did not change significantly, and the changes in the secondary market were more driven by funds.

In the view of market analysts, the reason why the fund chose Tanaka may be related to its low market value. On the trading day before the registration system of gem opened, the total market value of Tanaka precision machinery was no more than 2.234 billion yuan, which was small enough.

The performance of other GEM companies on the same day can also provide some evidence. On August 24, among all the 13 GEM companies with an increase of more than 10%, there were as many as 4 companies with a market value of less than 3 billion yuan. From the perspective of the rise and fall, the smaller the market value is, the greater the increase is.

LANs Technology (300433. SZ), with a total market value of more than 140 billion yuan, ranked the last of the 13 stocks with an increase of 10.21%. In similar cases, Xinwei communications (300136. SZ), with a total market value of more than 50 billion yuan, rose by 10.56%.

It is not difficult to see that while the gem shows value investment orientation, there are still some previous speculation inertia on small market value companies, which will take time to change.

20% up and down to reshape gem ecology

Investors are happy to get a 20% increase in a single day, but some risk factors caused by the change of trading rules are also worthy of attention.

First of all, there are some obvious risk points, such as listed companies in the delisting period or delisting risk.

August 24 is not only the listing date of the first 18 new shares registered on GEM, but also the last trading day of Shenwu delisting period.

On the same day, the transaction volume of Shenwu Tui was only 2.56 million yuan. At the final farewell at 15:00, the company still accumulated 170000 sales orders at the first and second selling prices. The relevant investors will bid farewell to the secondary market of a shares together with the company.

Similar cases include qianshantui (300216. SZ), which is about to bid farewell on September 15. Although the daily trading volume is limited and the possibility of selling is low, it is more difficult to escape when the transaction is delayed to the end.

Secondly, there are some unpredictable and uncontrollable risks.

Leaving aside the "crazy five minutes" of Kangtai Medical Co., Ltd. at the end of the 24th, taking the stock companies on the gem as an example, there were many cases of obvious floating loss of chasing up funds in a single day.

Overclocking 3 (300647. SZ) opened high on the 24th, with the limit price of 12.79 yuan on the same day. In the afternoon, the increase expanded to 19.89% and then fell back continuously. The increase narrowed to 9.57% at the end of the day. If the highest price of the day is 12.78 yuan, the floating loss of nearly 9% will appear.

And in the previous gem 10% rise and fall of the era, the floating loss of the above cases is about 4%. This will also change the existing system.

"The market activity will be significantly improved, with 20% rise and 20% decline respectively, and the full day amplitude can reach 40%. The increase of volatility will attract more capital to participate, which will help to improve the market liquidity." Wang Lin commented.

Some of the original trading patterns of A-share market will also change accordingly. For example, some hot money will face the choice of "playing board tactics".

Before the reform of registration system, when the 10% trading limit of individual stocks appeared on the same day, some investors would not choose to sell on the same day, but wait and see for the next day to make a decision. As a result, the liquidity of sellers on the trading day of individual stocks was significantly reduced, and the upward trend of individual stocks was continuously strengthened, thus giving birth to the so-called "demon stocks".

"The traditional pattern of hot money is based on this, and when the rise and fall is relaxed to 20%, the stock price can timely reflect the changes in fundamentals or industries on the same day, and the strengthening effect of capital on the upward trend is correspondingly reduced." Wang Lin said.

He also pointed out that due to the expansion of the volatility of individual stocks, the market will further strengthen the study and judgment of listed companies and their industries. "This is true for large institutions, small institutions and individual investors. After all, in the environment of 20% rise and fall, the net value fluctuation of public offering and private placement will be very frightening."

Obviously, the rise and fall of 20% requires higher psychological quality and tolerance of price fluctuation of all participants in the market, which is also the only way to institutionalize A-share market.

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