Stock Holding Becomes The Mainstream, Procyclicality, Optional Consumption And Technology Are The Most Concerned

After falling for three days, a shares finally rebounded in the last two trading days before the festival. However, before the long holiday, funds have no love war, the transaction is quite light.

Before the festival, "holding shares and holding currency" has reached the final moment of choice. According to the reporter's interview and investigation, it is found that institutions support holding shares during the festival. Many institutions believe that pre holiday bargain hunting is a good time to layout the fourth quarter market.

In the stock swap before the institutional holiday, pro cyclical stocks, optional consumer stocks and well adjusted technology stocks have become the first choice for the layout of the fourth quarter market.

Funds have no love for war

At the end of September 29, the Shanghai composite index was up 0.21%, the Shenzhen composite index was up 1.10%, the gem index was up 1.67%, and Kechuang 50 was up 3.81%.

Although the market rose, but the light volume of trading let the market not much excitement.

The trading volume of the two markets on September 29 was only 608 billion yuan, compared with 540.3 billion yuan and 569.4 billion yuan respectively in the previous two days, which dropped by more than half from the peak in July. Last week (9.21-9.25), the average daily turnover of a shares in the two cities was as low as 0.67 trillion, down 10% from the previous week.

In fact, in the last two weeks before the festival, the funds have no desire to fight. Although the bull sentiment is still strong, but all kinds of hot money has entered the vacation state ahead of time.

And northbound funds sold net for the seventh consecutive trading day. The net sales on September 29 were 94 million yuan and 25.883 billion yuan in the last seven trading days.

As for the recent outflow of a shares, Guotai Junan believes that the selling of a shares by overseas investors represented by Beishang is mainly due to the decline of risk preference in the uncertain environment and the insufficient risk compensation implied in the overvalued value of its heavy positions.

Guotai Junan pointed out that since 2020, the allocation structure of foreign investment has gone through three stages: from January to may in 2020, the allocation focus is on consumer medicine; from May to July in 2020, the allocation of cycle and science and technology exceeds the consumption of medicine; from July 2020 to now, foreign capital has substantially reduced its holdings of consumption and medicine, increasing the holding cycle and science and technology.

Holding currency or holding shares?

Approaching the National Day Mid Autumn Festival holiday, it's time to finally decide whether to hold shares or hold currency.

The research of many securities companies supports the view of "falling before the festival and rebounding after the festival".

The research of Tianfeng securities shows that historical experience shows that before the National Day holiday, the decline is more than the rise. Among the 11 years from 2009 to 19, the market fell in the two weeks before the National Day in 8 years and fell in the week before the National Day in 7 years; the situation of gem index was slightly better than that of Shanghai stock index. The reason behind the speculation is that, on the one hand, the fund itself has a certain risk aversion demand before the long holiday; on the other hand, cross quarter funds are more likely to be tight.

This year, it did fall before the festival. Since September, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index have fallen by 5.05%, 6.23% and 6.06% respectively. Since the previous week, it has decreased by (29.2.9%) and (21.2.9%) respectively.

However, empirical data show that there is a high probability of "reversal" in the market after the holiday. According to the 10 trading days before and after the festival, there were 7 rebounds after the festival in the years of 8 times of decline before the festival, and 6 times of the years with the 7 times of pre holiday decline rebounded after the festival according to the 5 trading days before and after the festival.

"After the holiday, the marginal change of capital and the performance of the third quarter report will become the decisive factors of market direction and structure." Tianfeng Securities pointed out.

Guotai Junan Securities called out, not afraid of fear, shareholding Festival.

"When we communicate with the market, there is a lot of panic. But we believe that we should not let panic overshadow current odds and odds. We believe that the decline caused by risk events is often a good buying opportunity. " Taian technology and Junan are preferred.

The sentiment of CITIC Securities Market in late September is also the starting point.

In terms of allocation, CITIC Securities proposes to strengthen the allocation of procyclical and highly resilient varieties, and continue to focus on three main lines: the cyclical plate benefiting from weak US dollar, commodity / energy price rise and expected recovery of global economy; optional consumer products benefiting from economic recovery and consumption recovery; and financial sector with low absolute valuation and relatively fully digesting negative factors. In addition, we can start to configure and adjust the technological leaders that have been basically in place. At the same time, the layout may benefit from the main line of the 14th five year plan.

Is it stock holding or currency holding? The logic analysis given by Guosheng securities is that, in the domestic aspect, the economic rate in September will still be good, and the economic data will improve, and there is not much room for the stock market to fall. In addition, four ETF50 of science and technology innovation board have been issued recently, with a total subscription scale of about 100 billion yuan. Investors are still enthusiastic about high-quality and technology style fund products, and the scale of potential funds over the counter is still huge. In addition, confidence in the market for vaccines is expected to increase in the long term.

However, there are also many interference factors during the holiday. Guosheng Securities pointed out that, on the one hand, the seasonal recurrence of the epidemic in Europe still has great uncertainty on the economic recovery; on the other hand, emergencies during the national day will have an impact on the market after the festival, so the willingness of capital to enter the market and trade before the festival is not strong.

Guosheng Securities believes that from the perspective of allocation, we should not be too pessimistic, should be light index, heavy stocks. Focus on the pro cyclical sector, such as the infrastructure industry chain (building materials, machinery, chemical industry, light industry) in the cyclical plate and the automobile sector in the optional consumption.

Wanlian Securities believes that the risk aversion mood before the festival rebounded, and the market sentiment after the festival may hit the bottom. "After the National Day holiday, the three quarterly reports of listed companies will successively disclose that the pro cyclical industry and consumer sector are expected to usher in improved performance, the market risk appetite is expected to warm up, and the trading sentiment may hit the bottom and pick up."

In addition to the seller's organization, the buyer's organization also supports the stock ownership.

Although the market is falling recently, according to the reporter, many of the buyer's institutions did not significantly reduce their positions. On the contrary, the public offering of partial shares increased their positions on the whole last week (9.21-9.25). In addition, the latest data of 10 billion private placement also showed that they increased their positions against the market in mid September.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said, "due to the long holiday, investors are more cautious before the festival and trading is not active. Before the festival, public funds may adjust their positions for more shares, and may not necessarily reduce their positions substantially. The main reason is that some stocks with a large increase in the previous period will take profits and switch to some stocks with a smaller increase. "

Yang Delong believes that now is the best time to lay out the market in the fourth quarter, suggesting that we should focus on the adjusted consumption of Baima stocks, securities companies and technology stocks.

While Xiang Weida, chief economist of Great Wall Fund, believes that A-share market is likely to continue to fluctuate in October.

"It is suggested that investors should focus on military stocks from a strategic point of view, focus on consumer electronics related to Apple's industrial chain, focus on automotive electric intelligent industrial chain and new energy industry chain, and focus on Pro cyclical undervalued blue chip stocks such as automobiles, chemicals, building materials and prefabricated buildings, as well as game media, liquor, vaccines and innovative drugs. ”To Vida.

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