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The Results Of The US General Election Will Be Announced Soon! How Does It Affect The Textile Industry?

2020/11/3 20:22:00 0

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Many textile people feel that the recent market seems to become a bit strange.

On the one hand, dyeing factories, as the "wind vane of market heat", are extremely busy. The delivery period has been delayed from the original 7 days to about 15 days now. If the orders are urgent, they have to pay a certain amount of urgent expenses, and the freight has also begun to soar, and even the news of container dumping has been exposed;

On the other hand, after the sharp rise in October, the price of raw materials began to fall, the production and sales of polyester continued to decline, and the average inventory of polyester filament in polyester factories began to rise again.

On the micro level, the textile market shows a two-level differentiation phenomenon that people can't understand; at the macro level, the international oil price began to plummet, and the international stock market began to decline.

At the same time, it is also very important to see that the oil price will fall again in the United States and other countries, and the main reason for this is that the oil price will fall again.

The political situation in the United States has a very far-reaching impact on China's textile industry. The Sino US trade friction in 2019 caught Chinese textile people by surprise, and a large number of original orders were cancelled, which led to serious overcapacity in the market, and finally led to the impact of textile export. According to customs statistics, from January to December 2019, China's export of clothing and accessories amounted to US $151.367.6 billion, down 4.0% year-on-year.

On the other hand, the United States, as the largest developed country in the world, undoubtedly the leader of western countries, is also the largest consumer market in the world. Its domestic political and economic changes will not only directly affect China's textile export, but also have an important impact on the world economy at the macro level, thus indirectly affecting China's textile industry.

A farce like election

The U.S. election in 2020 is totally different from what people used to think.

In the past, people had the impression that the US general election was that the two parties put forward their candidates, then went to various places to canvass for votes, expounded their ruling ideas, and finally attracted voters to vote for themselves. Even though the competition between the two sides was fierce, they kept their due dignity. However, this year's US general election seems to have become a farce, in which candidates on both sides dig in black material from each other, and the original politics The policy debate seems to have degenerated into a market quarrel.

According to the early opinion polls, although Biden is ahead of trump, trump, as a genius in the election field, also has a lot of "loyal fans". Before the final result comes out, everything is unknown.

What impact will the dust of the US election have on the textile market

First of all, curbing China's development has become one of the few consensus between the two parties in the United States, and it will not change because of who the president is. Therefore, whether Biden is elected or trump is finally elected, it is unlikely that the part of tariff already imposed on China will be "loosened". Therefore, textile workers do not have to hope that the United States will take the initiative to stop after Biden wins the election Sino US trade friction.

Secondly, as of November 2, the total number of people diagnosed with new crown pneumonia in the United States has reached nearly 10 million, which was unexpected before the outbreak of the epidemic. Throughout the operation of the outbreak of the U.S. epidemic to the present, it is basically certain that trump has played a negative effect in the process of fighting the epidemic. If Biden is elected, it may restore a certain degree of market confidence, which is equivalent to the order of textile and clothing fabrics to a certain extent.

Third, this year's election as a "farce", in a sense, all kinds of exotic operations between the two parties have further torn apart the American society devastated by the epidemic, thus further reducing the already shrinking market demand. If the dust of the election is settled, this tear may be alleviated, and the market for Thanksgiving and Christmas may increase It is a good thing for future textile export to the United States.

In addition, it must be noted that in the process of the general election canvassing debate, both trump and Biden instilled to the public the risk of cheating in the election through the media. If trump loses the election, with his paranoid character, he may not recognize the result of the defeat.

In the process of visiting enterprises recently, some textile foreign trade enterprises said that due to the beginning of the second round of closure in Europe, many large orders were cancelled. If the 2020 US election results eventually lead to deeper conflicts, the impact on social economy and market demand will be far greater than that of European countries.

afterword

Generally speaking, for textile enterprises, Biden's election is a relatively good result in view of all kinds of wonderful operations during Trump's first term, especially in the process of anti epidemic. However, considering that the general trend of the United States to contain China will not change, it is difficult for the export to the United States to recover before the Sino US trade friction.

What's more, if the final vote results in some anxious situation, maybe there will be a new "black swan" in the market. These risks are the factors that textile workers must consider when receiving orders in the near future. No matter how cautious they are.