China'S Foreign Trade Import And Export Has Been Increasing For Five Consecutive Months. Experts Predict That The Annual Growth Rate Is Expected To Reach 2%

On November 7, data released on the official website of the General Administration of Customs showed that in the first 10 months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 25.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.1% over the same period last year (the same below). Among them, exports were 14.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.4%; imports were 11.62 trillion yuan, down 0.5%; trade surplus was 2.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.9%. In October, China's foreign trade import and export reached 2.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.6%. Among them, exports were 1.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.6%; imports were 1.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.9%; trade surplus was 401.75 billion yuan, an increase of 34.9%.

In an interview with the media, Li Kuiwen, spokesman of the General Administration of customs and director of the Department of statistics and analysis, said, "since June, the import and export of foreign trade has achieved positive growth for five consecutive months, and the international market share of export is also rising. At present, the world economy is in a serious recession and external demand is shrinking significantly, which highlights China's strong development toughness and stable and improved quality of foreign trade. "

In the first 10 months, China's foreign trade import and export showed five major characteristics: the general trade import and export increased and the proportion increased; the import and export to the top five trading partners including ASEAN, EU, the United States, Japan and South Korea increased; the import and export of private enterprises increased; the export of mechanical and electrical products, textiles and plastic products increased, while the export of clothing, shoes, boots and bags decreased; The import volume and price of iron ore rose, while the import volume of crude oil, soybean and natural gas increased and the price fell.

Dong zhongyun, chief economist of AVIC securities, said in an interview with Securities Daily that under the impact of the global epidemic, China's foreign trade situation can maintain a good situation mainly because China has controlled the spread of the epidemic at the fastest speed, thus leading other major economies to start resuming work and production, realizing sustained economic recovery and stabilizing domestic demand It is conducive to import repair. In addition, the stable domestic production capacity is in sharp contrast to the supply chain blocked by the epidemic situation overseas. The transfer of some overseas orders to China also provides support for domestic exports, which makes China's foreign trade show strong resilience. At the same time, the quality of China's foreign trade is also constantly optimized. From the perspective of foreign trade structure, in the first 10 months of this year, the export growth rate of China's mechanical and electrical products with higher added value was higher than that of the overall export, and its proportion in the export increased compared with the same period last year.

There are three main reasons for the continued growth of China's foreign trade import and export: first, the external demand is weak and the external supply is blocked, while China's production supply is restored in time, which stabilizes the global supply chain, especially the supply chain of epidemic prevention materials demand; Second, while stabilizing supply and production, China's timely recovery of consumer demand, especially the demand for bulk commodities, has provided an important support for stabilizing the world market demand; third, China's foreign trade structure has changed, especially the growth and proportion of general trade import and export, which means that China is more competitive in market development. " In an interview with Securities Daily, Liu Xiangdong, Vice Minister of Economic Research Department of China International Economic Exchange Center, added that in general, China's foreign trade import and export maintain a certain competitiveness, which is not only affected by the short-term epidemic situation, but also the result of the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure itself.

Looking forward to the future, Dong zhongyun believes that the subsequent economic recovery of European and American countries may be slowed down due to the strengthening of epidemic prevention and control, and foreign demand will be restrained to a certain extent, which will have a negative impact on China's exports. On the other hand, China's ability to undertake overseas orders will continue to be affected, but on the other hand, China's ability to undertake overseas production will continue to be affected. Therefore, with the steady recovery trend of China's economy, China's foreign trade situation will be affected by both overseas demand and production in the future. On the whole, it is expected that the growth rate of foreign trade is expected to continue to operate stably at the current level.

"With the gradual recovery of the global economy, it is expected that the import and export of foreign trade will maintain double growth in the second two months of this year, which will further promote the overall foreign trade import and export growth rate of about 2% in 2020." Liu Xiangdong predicted.