Shanghai'S Path To Property Market Recovery: Inventory Reduction, Uneven Hot And Cold

"Recently, the Shanghai market has been trading very fast. This year, the average market price of the core region has increased by more than 13% This is a high-end luxury housing agency recently asked the salesman to speak in a unified way.

On the morning of December 9, Liu Xin (pseudonym) pushed several sets of luxury house information to several prospective buyers who have been looking at houses in wechat for nearly half a year. At the request of the company, she attached this sentence at the beginning of the editing information. Although some reserve customers in Liu Xin's wechat will respond and some do not respond, Liu Xin's frequency of pushing information has increased recently, because recently, the transaction of new houses in Shanghai is extremely hot, and the lottery number is one after another, and each time it is quickly wound up. She predicted that the second-hand housing market would also rise with it. Recently, she did deal with a second-hand house in Shimao riverside.

Shanghai property market recently to what extent? According to a prospective client who is preparing to buy a house recently, she participated in the lottery of a certain project of poly on December 8, but she didn't roll to the number in front of her. As a result, it sold out in two hours that day. This client had already participated in the lottery of three or four projects, but failed. Now he has to continue to solicit new projects under China Merchants.

Since July this year, the number of new housing applicants in Shanghai has soared. At that time, the regulation of "can't be raised at the same time" was released for many real estate projects. In the same period of time, customers can claim multiple projects as long as they have sufficient funds.

Behind the booming property market is the shortage of new commercial housing supply in Shanghai. From January to November 2020, Shanghai's new supply of commercial housing (excluding affordable housing) was 5.9374 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%. In November 2020, the new supply of commercial housing (excluding affordable housing) in Shanghai was 159800 square meters, a decrease of 76.8% month on month and a decrease of 67% year on year. In November, the saleable area of commercial housing (excluding indemnificatory housing) in Shanghai was 6.7509 million square meters, down 5.3% month on month. According to the average sales situation in recent six months, the liquidation cycle was 7.63 months.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of the E-House Research Institute, pointed out that this year's real estate transactions in Shanghai were good, whether they were first-hand or second-hand houses, ordinary residences or luxury houses. This fully shows that the market demand is large. Therefore, Shanghai should actively increase the supply of land and commercial housing.

Information map.

August is the turning point of the market

Similar to Shenzhen's property market, there are a lot of new buyers in Shanghai recently, not only because of the upside down of the first and second-hand house prices, but also because of the centralized release of purchase demand.

A marketing director of a real estate project for sale told 21st century economic report that the turning point of Shanghai property market appeared in August, and there were obvious signs in July.

After the epidemic situation has entered the normalization prevention and control this year, the supply of the real estate market has gradually recovered. In addition to 32 real estate projects entering the market in April this year, a total of 30 property markets in Shanghai received pre-sale permits in August, and the market activity is high. In August, the recognition rate of several projects exceeded 100%, and five of them showed "1000 people shaking".

According to the data of second-hand houses in Shanghai in the past three years, the turnover of second-hand houses in Shanghai has been maintained at more than 27000 units since the second quarter of this year after the epidemic eased. In September, the turnover of second-hand houses reached more than 32000 units, reaching the peak value of second-hand housing transactions in Shanghai after 2016; in October, the number of second-hand housing transactions fell to 28000 units, and in November it returned to 32000 units.

Second hand house transactions rose, not only shows the market's purchasing power, but also shows that this is a way for potential buyers of second set of housing to replace the real estate. In Shanghai, many people have to sell their first house before they can buy a second house. The increase in the liquidity of second-hand houses also promotes the recovery of first-hand houses.

As a result, as the marketing director mentioned above, there will be a large number of new projects coming into the market in Shanghai next year. Although the overall supply shows a downward trend, this heat will remain. The trend is expected to continue until the beginning of next year. In his opinion, may 2021 is a window period for buying houses in Shanghai. "The heat of Shanghai's property market has actually been maintained, and will even last until next year."

At the end of the year, the main reason for the lack of investment in Central Plains is the lack of investment in Shanghai.

First of all, the house is not enough to sell. Generally speaking, after one year's running, the demand is almost released, and the supply and demand are weakening at the end of the year. It should not be a common phenomenon that there is an ultra-high call rate. But this year the situation is really different, because the new houses are not enough to sell. This year, Shanghai's new market supply of nearly 6.78 million square meters, a decrease of 10% compared with last year, but the volume of trading increased by more than 10% year-on-year. At present, the inventory of new houses is 7.6 million square meters, and the cycle of de stocking is less than 9 months. In Shanghai, the average period from land acquisition to sales is about 11 months. Due to the influence of pre-sale system, capital supervision and other factors, the pace of Shanghai real estate enterprises in building houses in Shanghai began to fall behind the pace of sales.

Secondly, the trend of house price rising is obvious. The rising trend of house prices is synchronized with the release rhythm of trading volume. The lowest price of housing this year is March. After April, the trading volume of the real estate market was released rapidly. Since then, it has been consolidation at a high level. Because of the limited price factors, the new house is not as obvious as the second-hand house in the rising range. From the Central Plains second-hand housing price index, from the lowest point in March to the highest point in November, the rebound rate has exceeded 5%. People generally have the mentality of buying up but not buying down. The rising trend of house prices is so obvious that the more people rush into the market.

Finally, Shanghai has the help of relocation and old reform. Shanghai has made great efforts to reform the old system this year, and Huangpu and other districts will be relocated by the end of this year. These demands directly enter the new housing and second-hand housing market.

Behind the booming property market is the shortage of new commercial housing supply in Shanghai. IC photo

Uneven Market

In fact, the Shanghai Housing Authority has issued more than 200 pre-sale permits in 2020. It has been at this level for three consecutive years since 2018. According to industry insiders, 142 residential land lots were sold in Shanghai from January to November this year, totaling 13.7489 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 9.49%. With the guarantee of Shanghai's land supply and inventory this year, more than 200 pre-sale certificates will enter the market next year.

Yan Yuejin pointed out that for the Shanghai land market, there are two characteristics this year. First, the pace of land supply is speeding up, and the scale of land supply is obviously in large quantity. The second is the increase of land supply and transaction in urban areas such as inner ring, which also shows that it is beneficial for luxury housing or high-end market. For real estate enterprises, returning to Shanghai for land acquisition has a positive role, has a very good guidance, and is good for stabilizing investment and real estate market.

With the control of supply rhythm, the housing price circle in Shanghai has become obvious. The average price of Binjiang is close to 130000 yuan / m2, and the inner ring has reached about 100000 yuan / m2, which is equivalent to the house price in central. Price differences, leading to uneven plate. For example, the price of Anting has increased from about 25000 yuan / square meter to 40000 yuan / square meter this year, because the price base of Anting plate is low.

At the end of the year, the heat of the property market was still hot. Although the buyers were eager to enter the market, they still needed to be calm in their decision-making. The overall high temperature of the property market does not mean that all projects are difficult to find a room. The biggest feature of this year's property market is project differentiation, that is, the call rate in central is higher than that outside central. However, it does not mean that the project outside the outer ring is not easy to sell, and the project in the central ring can not seize the house. For example, the Diwang project in the urban area is not so good; several projects in Xujing are not bad, and there are even buildings with a record number of applicants this year, and there are very large individual differences in real estate.

Xie Mengxian, an analyst at Tongce Research Institute, pointed out that in November, there were seven new projects entering the market, including rigid demand, improvement and luxury housing. It can be seen that in the new market, the improvement type and the removal of luxury houses perform better. Rigid demand users may give priority to buying second-hand existing houses. For example, the newly opened Dongyuan puyue and Yuzhou Tianjing in Fengxian District belong to the rigid demand real estate. However, due to a lot of competing products and inconvenient transportation around, they can not meet the commuting demands of rigid demand users. Therefore, the recognition rate is low and the elimination effect is poor.

In October this year, there were about 20 times of lottery opening in Shanghai, and about 11 of them were middle and low price plates ranging from 3 million to 5 million. Among these 20 projects, 13 new projects with less than 100% of the total amount of funds raised, accounting for about 60%; among them, 9 of them have less than 50% of the total. There are also some of the lack of funds for the new plate, do not need a notary office lottery, such as Zhonghai zhenrufu.

Lu Wenxi believes that although the property market has performed well this year and the head real estate enterprises can basically complete the sales task, for the vast majority of real estate enterprises, the task completion rate is quite low due to the impact of the epidemic. Therefore, it is not ruled out that some real estate enterprises will make final efforts to narrow the target gap, focusing on the opening of the market in December, and exchange sales volume with a more affinity price.

The property market is not only hot and cold in East China. While the Shanghai market is booming, the hot degree of the market around Shanghai has decreased significantly recently. For example, the volume and price of Jiaxing fell in November, 2584 first-hand residential units were sold, and the sales area of new commercial residential buildings was 291000 square meters, down 23.0% month on month. In addition, according to Kerui's data, Suzhou's property market also showed a fall in both volume and price in November, with a turnover area of 641000 square meters, a decrease of 12.81% on a month on month basis and a decrease of 15.42% on a year-on-year basis; the average transaction price was 25795 yuan / square meter, with a slight decrease of 3.87% month on month.