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Authoritative Organization Releases Report: "Warm Winter" Is Settled Down! Textile And Clothing Market Is Bound By The Weather Again!

2020/12/11 14:14:00 0

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On December 2, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released the interim report "global climate situation 2020" in Geneva, pointing out that 2020 will become one of the three warmest years on record. The distribution and change of temperature are very uneven in time and space! Under the influence of more small-scale and short-term weather systems, the weather varies from place to place, and there are also different cold and warm anomalies, some of which are obviously cold. But according to WMO calculations, these deviations have been included in the global average warming result.

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For the winter forecast, from "cold winter" to "warm winter", this forecast change has a great impact on the textile market. In particular, the sales of down jacket, if the later period is warm winter, it will be greatly affected. Looking back on the winter of 2019-2020, due to the warm winter effect, down garments are unsalable, and garment factories have overstocked more inventory.

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UNIQLO lost 10% of its sales in 2015 due to climate change. In the spring of 2016, low price dumping, overstocking of a large number of products and arrears of payment for goods between upstream and downstream made many down jacket practitioners close down directly. It's also a warm winter in 2019. UNIQLO's financial report for the first quarter of fiscal year 2020 shows that sales fell 3.3% year-on-year, and operating profit fell 12.4%. The company said the decline in sales and profits was mainly affected by warm winter weather.

Thus, weather is an important factor that can not be ignored in clothing business. Previous analysis suggested that the relationship between temperature and retail sales is often underestimated by the outside world, but the former is one of the three external driving factors affecting performance.

Autumn and winter fabrics sell well again, clothing orders increase by 20% - 30%

This winter, however, sales of down jackets are exceptionally good. According to several garment factories in Hangzhou, the demand for winter clothes is much larger than that in previous years because it is expected to be a cold winter this year, and the order volume has increased by 20% - 30%. The same is true in the weaving Market. Recently, autumn and winter fabrics have been sold again, such as T400, four side elastic, high elastic spring Asian spinning, polyester / cotton composite yarn, viscose T8, imitation acetic acid, etc., and several grey fabrics have increased in volume and even emptied of stock.

Recent Autumn and winter fabrics again hot reasons, Xiaobian in the previous articles have explained. On the one hand, there is a sense of cold winter in recent years, and there is a certain demand for down jacket, cotton padded clothes and other winter clothes. On the other hand, near the end of the year, and under the influence of vaccines, the expected improvement of next year has led to a wave of stock preparation. However, "warm winter" news, it seems that will be contrary to the current market.

If there is a "cold winter" into a "warm winter" this year, what impact will it bring to the entire textile industry? We can predict from several aspects.

Warm winter will make down clothes unsalable in later period

In the later stage, if the weather rises or the current temperature is maintained, it is difficult to promote the sales of down garments, so the recent orders of this batch of clothing will become unsalable inventory. Clothing factories keep inventory in their hands, which makes it difficult to recover the balance of this batch of fabric orders. As a result, some down garments will flow back to fabric suppliers, and low-cost sales can be seen everywhere.

However, the recent sale of down jacket has appeared, with only 150 yuan for a piece of individual market, while some old down coats currently in front of cloth boss's sales department only sell three pieces of 100 yuan. Recently, Xiaobian has been attracted by a video. The inventory of down in Yiwu market is subject to 58 yuan, and the price is reduced to 38 yuan! The lower the price of down jacket, it also means that it has too much inventory and is eager to withdraw funds.

Warm winter will limit the issuance of new orders next year

According to the statistics of China clothing association, the market scale of down jacket in China was about 106.8 billion yuan in 2018, an increase of more than 10% compared with the same period last year. With the upgrading of consumption, it is estimated that the market size of down jacket in China will reach 138.2 billion yuan in 2020. Some professionals revealed that even if the down jacket production on the market stopped, it would be enough to digest for 20 years!

According to this data, this year's winter down jacket if again unsalable, is bound to affect next year's winter clothing demand. The overstocked inventory will continue to digest in the next winter. In fact, the large amount of inventory left over from last year's warm winter has not yet been fully digested. If this year's warm winter again, it will seriously affect the speed of inventory digestion. Now a part of the stock is to prepare for next year's winter clothes, so the new orders for next year will be even worse. In order to digest the remaining inventory, the new orders of next year will be greatly reduced. In 2021, some garment enterprises will close down due to high inventory and broken capital chain. Most of them will encounter bottleneck period and the whole industry will be affected.

Avoid excessive inventory of down jacket and prepare goods carefully

Looking back on the influence of warm winter in the past, the situation of winter clothing fabrics in weaving Market is reflected incisively and vividly. Take Nisi spinning, a commonly used fabric for down jacket, as an example, the volume of goods sold is very small, and most manufacturers have accumulated hundreds of thousands or millions of meters of inventory. In the first half of 2020, the price of grey fabric will collapse, and the price of 380t Nisi spinning will drop from 4.5 yuan / m to about 3 yuan / m.

In order to avoid the similar situation from happening again, boss Bu needs to be calm while welcoming the market "Carnival at the end of the year". In particular, the recent rise in PTA has led to a wave of polyester raw materials, a large part of which is due to the preparation of downstream weaving factories. Although it has almost become a tradition for cloth owners to hoard raw materials a year ago, there are not a few cloth owners who have misjudged their hoarding. Fabric traders are also the same, do not over stock, blindly follow the trend of production. On the next year, we still need to plan carefully.

afterword

Warm winter has a great influence on the sales of winter clothing fabrics, which we have experienced in the past. Once this year's forecast of warm winter is confirmed, the recovery of the textile industry is undoubtedly worse, and next year's market will also be affected.