Multiple Factors Push Up International Crude Oil Price And Domestic Refined Oil Ushers In "Three Consecutive Rises"

By the end of 2020, the welfare of "low oil price" for one year has gradually faded away, and the oil price has ushered in the third round of continuous increase.

According to the notice of the national development and Reform Commission, at 24:00 on December 17, the retail price limits of domestic gasoline and diesel were increased by 155 yuan / ton and 150 yuan / ton respectively, equivalent to 89 ? 0.11 yuan, 92 ? 0.12 yuan and 95 ? 0.13 yuan per liter of gasoline, and 0 ? 0.13 yuan per liter of diesel oil.

As of the early morning of 18th, the retail price limit of domestic refined oil in 2020 has gone through 7 times of increase, 5 times of reduction, 6 times of grounding and 6 times of no adjustment. After offsetting the rise and fall, the cumulative reduction of gasoline and diesel is 1385 yuan / ton and 1335 yuan / ton respectively. After the price rise, 92% gasoline is reduced by 1.09 yuan and 0 diesel oil is reduced by 1.14 yuan.

After this round of price adjustment, the price of vehicles and firewood in most parts of the country is about 5.8-5.9 yuan / L, and the retail price limit of 92% gasoline is 5.8-6.0 yuan / L. after eight months, domestic refined oil returns to the "6 Yuan era" for the first time.

Consumer oil costs increase

This round of price adjustment is the third consecutive increase in nearly two months.

After the implementation of the price adjustment, the travel cost of consumers will continue to increase. For example, for a family car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, a full tank of 92% gasoline will increase by about 6 yuan.

Take a small private car with a monthly mileage of 2000 km and a fuel consumption of 8L per 100 km as an example, in the half month before the next price adjustment window opens (24:00 on December 31, 2020), the fuel consumption cost of consumers will increase by about 9.6 yuan.

The expenditure cost of logistics industry will also rise. Take Steyr heavy truck, which runs 10000 km / month and consumes 38L / 100km / month, as an example, the fuel cost of a single vehicle will increase by 247 yuan in the next half month.

Or it will meet the "four consecutive rises"

In this round of price adjustment cycle, the international crude oil price has been affected by several good news, and its trend has been steadily rising.

In early December, OPEC + reached a new production reduction agreement. Although it will increase production slightly from January next year, the market outlook is optimistic. Russian energy minister Novak said it was a successful and constructive meeting, which will be held face-to-face with Saudi Arabia's energy minister in late December, and next year the oil market may fully return to pre crisis levels.

"The oil market is now 'roughly' in balance and is ready to begin to gradually loosen production cuts." Longzhong information analyst Liu Wenjie told reporters.

At the same time, Biden made it clear that he would promote loose monetary policy, and the market renewed expectations for the new U.S. economic stimulus package. Britain became the first western country to approve the vaccine, ahead of the United States and the European Union in terms of a possible return to normal life and demand recovery.

The United States has also officially signed the Pfizer vaccine license, allowing vaccination work to be promoted in the United States, and the task of vaccine distribution has started, which has boosted the demand expectation of the world's largest crude oil consumer.

"In the follow-up, Europe and the United States have begun to vaccinate and boost market demand expectations. At the same time, the Federal Reserve may take further easing measures, and the US dollar may run at a low level. It is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustment will increase more likely." Liu said.

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