A-Share "Baotuan" Market Extreme Deduction, The Risk Of Disintegration Is Coming?

On December 28, the fourth last trading day in 2020, a shares continued to "group stocks", and some strong stocks such as liquor and new energy were still rising.

According to a reporter's interview and survey by the 21st century economic report, at the end of the year, under the pressure of fund ranking, a large number of institutions continued to group together, and even increased their positions in the consumption and new energy sectors. However, some funds have moved their positions ahead of time to withdraw some group stocks.

At the end of the year, under the extreme market of group stocks, an issue that institutions generally worry about is whether they will collapse after the new year? How will institutions respond? Different fund managers give different answers.

New energy and consumption

In the last month of 2020, new energy and consumption funds have made great progress.

According to wind data statistics, as of December 25, the top 10 funds with the highest returns since December 25 (ABC Huili industry 4.0, ABC Huili new energy theme, ABC Huili research selection, ABC Huili Haitang will open in three years, HSBC Jinxin low carbon pioneer, ICBC Credit Suisse small and medium cap growth, ChuangJin Hexin industrial cycle selection a, GF high-end manufacturing a, and Chuang Jin He He In the third quarter, almost all the new energy stocks were heavily invested.

As a matter of fact, the top 10 merit funds have been grouped together during the year. The most concentrated five stocks are new energy stocks, of which 9 are Tongwei shares; 8 are Longji shares; 7 are Ningde times and Ganfeng lithium; and 5 are xinzhoubang.

It is worth mentioning that at the end of November, Guangfa high-end manufacturing a managed by sun Di and Zheng chengran took the lead with a return of 126.28% within the year, which was 11 percentage points higher than the Agricultural Bank of China Huili industry 4.0 managed by Zhao Yi, the second ranked at that time. However, as of December 25, the revenue of ABC Huili industry 4.0 has increased by 23.29% to 163.33%, while that of Guangfa high-end manufacturing a has only increased by 2.06%, and the current revenue is 130.95%. The Agricultural Bank of China Huili industry 4.0 has achieved reverse surpassing, taking the first place, and Guangfa high-end manufacturing a has dropped to eighth place.

In fact, according to the third quarterly report of GF high-end manufacturing, there are many new energy stocks in its heavy positions. Longji shares account for 8.97% of the net value and Tongwei shares account for 7.97% of the net value. The two stocks have risen 274.45% and 213.26% respectively this year, and have also risen 34.13% and 31.62% since December.

"Judging from the current performance of GF's high-end manufacturing, it should be a warehouse adjustment. The top ten heavy positions in the three quarterly reports have performed well in the past week and in the past month, with a large increase. However, the performance of the net fund value is relatively weak. The probability rate has adjusted the positions of the high-end stocks with good performance before, and the net value fluctuation elasticity is relatively reduced. " Zhang Ting, chief strategist of Ge Shang financial management, believes that.

It is worth mentioning that at present, the top four funds with annual income are all managed by Zhao Yi. The top ten heavy positions of these four funds at the end of the third quarter are basically the same, and the heavy positions are concentrated in the new energy automobile industry chain, photovoltaic, military industry, etc.

Zhang Ting believes that Zhao Yi's recent earnings can be seen that the fund under its management has not been adjusted, but is still heavily invested in new energy.

In addition to gf's high-end manufacturing, the other top 10 funds with revenue of more than 20% since December. They all had heavy positions in new energy stocks at the end of the third quarter, and the current gains are roughly the same.

As of December 28, the new energy index and liquor index rose by 23.90% and 28.77% respectively, and these two sectors are also closely linked by institutions.

The industry believes that in the last month of 2020, under the pressure of "scale war" and "income war" at the end of the year, institutions will continue to group consumption and new energy sector. From the performance point of view, Baotuan new energy and consumption funds continued to make rapid progress at the end of the year, while the performance of funds leaving Baotuan shares slowed down.

Retreat or add warehouse

At the end of the year when the impact of net worth, according to a reporter's survey, at present, most institutions choose to continue to group together, some even choose to add positions.

"There are too many uncertain factors in the market this year, and the funds are mainly concentrated in consumption, new energy and some industries and plates with strong certainty. This also has something to do with the ranking of funds at the end of the year. In addition, we are worried about major changes in the allocation of funds in our hands. Therefore, we are relatively conservative and more defensive in allocation. " Said Zhao Lisong, chairman of shangdegu investment.

"At present, our position is about 40%. We think that consumer electronics, some photovoltaic, wind energy and other industries will have some opportunities in the next year. We are gradually adjusting the warehouse allocation." Zhao Lisong said.

Hu Po, the future star fund manager of private placement paipaipai.com, also pointed out that "consumer stocks and new energy vehicles were the biggest growth plates in the year, so doubts have appeared in the market. But we don't see any obvious signs of institutional withdrawal. Because of the certainty of performance growth, the new energy vehicles and consumer sectors are still gaining the consensus of the institutions. In particular, foreign capital continues to flow into new energy and consumer stocks. "

Zhuang Hongdong, founder and fund manager of cheese fund, also said, "in 2021, we basically adjusted our investment layout and continued to hold some stocks with relatively good performance this year, such as household appliances, liquor and medicine. At the same time, insurance, banks, real estate and other undervalued, low expectations of the plate for additional positions. In addition, leading enterprises in funeral, gas and security industries also account for a small proportion of our investment portfolio in 2021. In the future, if there is a large fluctuation in the market, it will be dynamically adjusted according to the return risk ratio of individual stocks. "

However, some funds said that the valuation of Baotuan shares has been high, and some of them have reduced their positions.

"We are very sensitive to valuations. As early as last year, we cleared the positions of liquor and other food stocks, and this year also cleared the positions of big bull stocks such as Sanquan food, which benefited from the epidemic situation. Longji shares of new energy sector and Jinfeng technology were allocated in the bear market in 2018. Since the valuation has been rising since the allocation, we did not further increase the position. " Xuanjia financial CEO Lin Jiayi said.

Huang Jiefeng, manager of Wolong Chuangxin investment fund, believes that at present, the cumulative increase of individual stocks of some institutions is relatively large this year, and the P / E ratio has greatly exceeded the average level of the industry, and the withdrawal of some institutions belongs to the phenomenon of reasonable position adjustment.

However, Xu Qiongna, general manager of Baomai investment, holds different views on Baotuan's new energy and consumption.

"In the long run, finance, consumption and medicine are China's core assets. But new energy is not the same. It's a bit like Tesla and Weilai in the United States, so the overestimated value of consumption and new energy can't be compared together. The logic behind it will be somewhat different. "

Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu investment, believes that some institutional groups will collapse, but the phenomenon should continue for some time. Before the year, the capital and market sentiment were tight, and some institutions had the motivation to recognize earnings at the end of the year and adjust positions and exchange stocks. Some institutional funds would withdraw from the strong varieties including new energy and consumer sectors, which had a large increase and high valuation this year, leading to the collapse of some conglomerated stocks.

And after the new year, will these conglomerates collapse? There are some differences among fund managers.

Lin Jiayi expressed concern about the risk of overvaluation of Baotuan shares. "Due to the sharp rise in consumption and new energy sectors this year, the performance of many public fund managers has been persisting in holding positions or even increasing positions in the last few trading days in order to seize the annual fund ranking. There are also speculative funds such as hot money in the market. This financial phenomenon is used to participate in the speculation, thus making the valuation pendulum of consumption and new energy swing to the stage of bubble. "

"After the new year, due to the performance of public funds to restart the relative income ranking of the new year, there is bound to be a more obvious change in positions. It is only a matter of time, and the node of cross year may directly burst the bubble. " Lin Jiayi said.

In contrast, Lin Jiayi is more optimistic about Pro cyclical leading stocks. "With the popularity of vaccines and the recovery of economy in 2021, leading enterprises with low Pro cyclical undervalued value will be the core holding or supporting objects, and the valuation of many head enterprises has been reduced to two or three times."

Li Kejie, general manager of Quanhong private equity fund, said, "we have a heavy position at the moment. We believe that some individual stocks have the value and Prospect of clustering

However, Li Kejie believes that quite a number of groups will inevitably be divided. This year, consumer stocks and technology stocks made good performance. "I don't think we'll sing this year's song next year. On the contrary, this year's financial stocks and blue chips, which have not performed much this year, should show some performance, which is worth looking forward to. "

Yang Delong, chief economist and fund manager of Qianhai open source fund, is optimistic about the future market of Baotuan shares. "I suggest that we focus on consumption and new energy. At present, it is suggested that investors can actively pay attention to the first-line liquor, but for some second-line and third-line liquor with relatively large increase, attention should be paid to the risk of callback. "

"Some people are worried about whether this is caused by the group of institutional funds. I think this understanding is too one-sided. The so-called group heating, refers to when the overall market situation is relatively poor, funds to chase these non cyclical plate to obtain better performance. In fact, the market has gone out of the slow bull trend, and the index is constantly expanding space, rising by about 10-20% every year. The market has more money making effect, but it mainly focuses on stocks with good performance, and there is no need for institutions to keep warm. The main reason for the so-called high concentration of shareholding and the general allocation of these high-quality stocks is that the performance growth of these stocks is stable, the brand value is high, and the investment value is relatively large. This is a rational choice made by the institutions from the perspective of fundamentals. " Yang Delong said.

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