Does The Market Wind Change Greatly, Continue To Unite Or Break Up? Fund Managers Respond Differently To Fierce Capital Game

On January 11, group stocks fell. Liquor, new energy and other sectors fell sharply.

On that day, the fund was in a fierce game, so it was an urgent choice to continue to form a group or to break up.

According to a survey conducted by the 21st century economic news reporter, although fund managers have different strategies to deal with this urgent problem, most of them hold a cautious attitude towards the high valued group stocks.

Baotuan shares fall sharply

On January 11, there was an obvious shift in the market style, with Baijiu and new energy sectors falling sharply, while auto, semiconductor and bank stocks rebounded.

A major feature of the recent market style is: when the market rises, a small number of large market value stocks rise more and more fierce, while most small market value stocks fall. Today, when the market falls, there are also a small number of large cap stocks falling less, most of the small market value stocks falling more.

On January 11, small cap stocks continued to fall, and some blue chip stocks had a high correction. At the end of the day, the three indexes of a shares all fell by more than 1%: Shanghai index fell by 1.08%, Shenzhen Composite Index by 1.33% and Chuang index by 1.84%.

On that day, a total of 1211.8 billion yuan was traded in the two cities, which was a turnover of more than one trillion yuan for six consecutive trading days.

In fact, on the basis of active trading, capital game is more intense, especially various "Maotai".

On the same day, the liquor index (884705. WI) fell 4.48%, while the new energy index (884035. WI) fell by 5.36%.

What is more shocking is that the Baijiu index fell 6% in the first 10 minutes of the morning trading, and the stock price of "Youmao" golden dragon fish once plummeted 14% after reaching a record high of 145.62 yuan / share shortly after the opening. By the end of the day, the share price was down 11.3%.

New energy in the "Guizhou Maotai" Longji shares, the day closed down 3.85%.

Baotuan shares fall into a fierce game. Will Baotuan stocks collapse from then on?

In the face of this problem, most fund managers hold a cautious attitude towards high valuation group stocks. Photo by Zheng dikun

According to the research of China Merchants Securities, there have been four similar cases of "conglomeration" in the history of A-shares, which are: group finance in 2007 q1-2010q1, lasting for 13 quarters; 2009 q3-2012q3 for the first time, lasting for 13 quarters; 2013q1-2016q1 for information technology, lasting for 13 quarters; 2016q1 - at present, the second consumption group has lasted for 13 quarters; but if we calculate from 2017q1 At present, it has only lasted 10 quarters.

"The problem of conglomeration has become a problem that investors will always face. For the successful fund product managers who take the lead in heavy positions and group plates, the dilemma lies in whether to reduce positions or not? Will all the previous achievements be wasted? " China Merchants Securities pointed out that in the process of group building, the classic positive feedback of "Holding Group - applying for purchase - buying Baotuan plate - continuing to win - attracting more stock funds to join the group" will appear.

"The fundamental reason for each collapse is that there are better performing sectors. Therefore, don't be blinded by the false concept, find the strongest performance sector and re store it. It is more important to find the meso and macro variables that drive the performance change than to find the sectors with better performance. " China Merchants Securities concluded.

Fund managers respond differently

"Today's trend shows that some group stocks began to loose chips, which shows that the market adjustment is about to start." Said Zhao Lisong, chairman of shangdegu investment.

"When there are differences in the general market, the original market style will continue for a period of time, but I think the risk of group stocks has been accumulated, so we should consider the risk appropriately." Zhao Lisong said.

In fact, when a shares fell on the same day, the decline of the fund's heavy position index was 0.89%, which was not very big, while the small cap stocks fell by 3.57%. Obviously, the decline of institutional group stocks was less than that of small cap stocks.

However, it is an unavoidable problem for fund managers whether to continue to unite in the future.

"Next, the market is likely to enter a shock," Zhao said. During the concussion period, we are more concerned about whether the big ticket will be reduced and the small ticket will be taken immediately. I personally think this kind of operation is risky and easy to be slapped on the left and right. "

"In terms of operation, I feel that after appropriately reducing positions, I will temporarily withdraw and wait and see, and wait until the end of the market shock before starting to see which new market hot spots are." Zhao Lisong suggested.

Tong Diyi, general manager of longying fuze assets, said, "the liquor, photovoltaic, new energy vehicles and other industries with funds are mostly at historical high levels. Although in the long run, their performance is highly deterministic and the logic is difficult to falsify in the short term, such high valuations often need to be repeatedly shaken and digested for a long time. At the same time, there has been a game phenomenon in the market about whether the group is over, which I think is often difficult to grasp. "

Tong Diyi believes that after a long-term rise, liquor, new energy and other holding plates have accumulated larger profit chips, and the increase of intraday amplitude is also a normal phenomenon. But they were quickly pulled up after falling, and the high volume and turnover rate reflected that the market still had funds to recognize their growth logic.

"It's too early to say that their trend is over. If we are optimistic about these industries for a long time, we can still enter and hold them at a reasonable valuation for a long time, and continuously digest the valuation through certain performance. " Tong Diyi said.

However, Tong Diyi is more inclined to hold the industry with high valuation and performance price performance ratio.

"In the current market, I pay more attention to some low value and high cost-effective varieties with more than expected space. With the advent of the annual report disclosure season, performance expectations and policy expectations will bring important catalyst. At the same time, large cap stocks will continue to track when they adjust their reasonable valuations. " Tong Diyi said.

However, he Jinlong, general manager of Meili investment, pointed out that Baijiu fell below the 5-day line and reached the top of the 10-day line today. "Suggestions with high positions can stop profits, while those with low positions can wait for opportunities and absorb low prices. At present, there are more bubbles in this plate. However, with the repair and valuation of liquor consumption plate, the certainty of low consumption and rising again will still exist. As the long-term performance of new energy is determined, the market is generally optimistic. In the process of adjustment, it is also a good opportunity to increase positions and absorb low prices. "

However, he Jinlong said, "this time, institutions and small cap stocks have been falling continuously. In previous years, there was a situation similar to the switch of market capital track, known as the" rising stock disaster ". In fact, small cap stocks rebounded to a certain extent after falling for many consecutive days last week. At this time, it is suggested that investors can wait for the small cap stocks to adjust and stabilize, and when the large cap stocks are seriously differentiated and the profit-making effect is weakened, they should absorb some stocks of small cap stocks that have been oversold and rebounded, or switch to the new registration system that has just been listed, and determine the direction of the new energy sector through the fluctuating military industry and long-term performance. "

In fact, most of the fund managers interviewed by the reporter are cautious about high valuation group stocks.

Lin Jiayi, CEO of Xuanjia finance, said that his overall position was about 60%. In recent years, with the situation of large market value rising and small market value falling, we feel that the market is too one-sided. We still adhere to the bottom-up fundamental investment and study the investment value of enterprises from the specific enterprise fundamentals. We can't simply cut across the size of market value. "

"The recent market trend has further strengthened, boosting the index to a new high. Among them, the valuations of many good enterprises have been seriously overvalued, and some of them have become frothy. At present, we are determined to reduce our holdings or stay away from such enterprises, and we are more concentrated in buying underpriced assets, such as real estate and insurance. " Lin Jiayi said.

Lin Jiayi pointed out that overvalued stocks will inevitably be corrected in the future. The potential return rate of these conglomerated overvalued stocks is extremely low, and will gradually fall back to the historical average value, and the potential decline is huge. Investors should be extremely cautious.

Li Kejie, general manager of Quanhong private equity fund, believes that institutions will eventually experience the "prisoner's dilemma" if they keep warm together, that is to say, they will eventually "break up".

"There are quite a number of individual stocks, and the bubble is already very large, which is not worth participating in, such as liquor. On the contrary, we can participate in some stocks that have not yet formed a group. " Li Kejie is more optimistic about Hong Kong stocks in the global valuation depression.

Ningquan assets, also known as "conscience fund manager" Yang Dong at the helm, points out that "we don't think it's a good time to invest in photovoltaic, lithium battery and electric vehicle stocks. Perhaps some strong and lucky leading enterprises can resolve the valuation through time and become the real king in the end, but most of the new energy stocks that have been hyped may only be able to digest the valuation by the sharp decline of the stock price in the future. "

Xia Fengfeng, manager of future star fund of private placement paipaipaipai.com, said that at present, the A-share market is undergoing profound changes, and the leading effect will continue to be reflected in the future structured market. But it doesn't mean that the current phenomenon will continue.

"Whether this phenomenon will continue in the short term or there will be a change in style is not really important. As long as the bubble will burst, it is impossible to predict when the bubble will burst. Investment should not be entangled in the conversion of market outlets, based on value, based on the return of cash flow, I believe that in the long run, there will be ideal investment returns. " Summer scenery said.

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