Land Supply Is Expected To Continue To Increase In 2020

After the new regulations of "three red lines" and "mortgage red lines" have been settled, the real estate market, which has been subject to strict policy control, has gradually entered a period of stable development. This has not dampened the market enthusiasm of high-energy cities. Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the leading cities in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, have gone out of the market of "unique scenery here" at the end of the new year.

The "two giants" in the bay area are not in the same environment, but they are brewing enough momentum to push up the property market. The supply of commercial housing in Shenzhen has been at a low level. Although there was a short-term contraction after the "715" new policy was introduced in 2020, the prices are firm. After the regulation and control, the transactions of first-hand houses are still hot, and the second-hand houses have gradually stepped out of the influence of the regulation and control. The Guangzhou property market has been stable for more than two years, the city value has been rediscovered, and the market has entered an upward channel.

What needs to be emphasized is that both cities are showing a trend of rising both in volume and price, but the future policy direction of Guangzhou and Shenzhen may be divided. The common ground is that, on the supply side, the land supply in Guangzhou and Shenzhen continues to be large; on the demand side, Guangzhou buyers rarely use "high leverage", with weak speculation sentiment and stable market as a whole; while Shenzhen has a dense capital flow and a strong atmosphere of private speculation, there is a possibility of further regulation and control.

Go up in differentiation

"Ice and fire", used in the recent market trend of Guangzhou and Shenzhen property market can not be more appropriate.

From the data point of view, Guangzhou and Shenzhen real estate market in the transaction price and volume are showing an upward trend. According to the statistics of China real estate market network, in the last month of 2020, the average unit price in Shenzhen was 87957 yuan / m2, up 34.23% year-on-year; the average unit price in Guangzhou was 39851 yuan / m2, up 11.55% year-on-year.

Price rise at the same time, trading volume more record. According to public data, in December 2020, the turnover of new houses in Guangzhou reached 17243 units, a new high in a single month; according to the data of Zhongyuan Real estate, the turnover of Shenzhen in November and December 2020 reached a new high within the year, of which 6296 units were sold in November, up to 97.0% year-on-year, setting a new high in nearly five years since January 2016; in December, the turnover was 5219 units, although it decreased by 17.1% month on month It was still the second highest in the year.

Although supply and demand are booming, "differentiation" is still the mainstream within the city.

The 21st century economic report interviewed a number of market observers, intermediaries and home buyers in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. From the situation they reflected, the uneven market is very obvious. Guangzhou is a hot area such as Huangpu and Nansha, which is full of momentum; Shenzhen is the first-hand "hit the new hot" continues, the second-hand "skyrocketing luxury housing" is difficult to sell, and the areas with more just needed customers, such as Bantian, gradually return to the state before regulation and control.

According to Kerui data, Nansha and Huangpu are the top two first-hand transaction price increases in 2020, of which Nansha recorded an average transaction price of 26622 yuan / m2, an increase of 24.46%; Huangpu recorded a transaction price of 30217 yuan / m2, an increase of 17.9%; on the contrary, the annual average price of Baiyun and Zengcheng showed a downward trend, with a decrease of 4.72% and 2.73% respectively.

In terms of second-hand housing, Guangzhou hot areas are also enthusiastic. Tianhe chebei area of the intermediary Xiaoliu recently busy house, but the market is still in short supply, "there are customers, no plate."

Compared with Guangzhou, the market situation in Shenzhen is more special. As the primary and secondary prices in Shenzhen's first-hand market are inverted, a large number of buyers are lurking in the major new buildings to "strike a new market". It is not uncommon for Shenzhen's recent real estate market to "open the market as soon as possible".

According to the monitoring data of Zhongyuan Real estate, in December 2020, 7 out of 22 residential projects opened in Shenzhen have a daily CD-ROM, and the overall situation of new houses opening to market is better.

On the second hand side, there is a clear watershed. Longgang District, which has more rigid demand and lower housing price, has a prosperous transaction, while Nanshan and Futian, the old luxury housing areas, are relatively flat. According to the data of Zhongyuan Real estate, as of December 30, 2020, Longgang's trading volume still ranked first, with 2171 sets of transactions, accounting for 33.0% of the city's transactions.

Li Nian, an intermediary in the Buji area of Shenzhen, told the 21st century economic report, "it's good to sell. Most of the customers I contact in Buji are just in need, with 2-6 million customers. There are very few houses available in the market. I find it heartbreaking to find a house. In the past, customers would compare two or three sets, but now there is no comparison. A community may look at one or two sets of houses. "

Another intermediary, Lin Xiang, is in Shenzhen's Bantian District, which also just needs customers to gather. His feeling is, "it's very good. Some communities have recovered to the monthly turnover before 715, and there is no market price for customers to select. The total price of each set of transactions is still at a new high."

Not everyone is as lucky as Li Nian, and more agents are worried about not being able to open a single. "My feeling is that the market is not good. From December 1 last year to now, our store has not issued a single order

Where will the future market go?

The upward trend of Guangzhou and Shenzhen real estate markets is closely related to the macro environment. Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong provincial housing policy research center, analyzed the 21st century economic reporter that the impact of the epidemic in 2020 was relatively large, the market had expectations on the property market, and the central bank's statement that monetary policy was not turning sharply, all had a certain role in boosting market sentiment.

In this context, Guangzhou and Shenzhen double city trading volume set a new high in the property market is also expected. However, it needs to be emphasized that the micro environment and regulatory pressure faced by Guangzhou and Shenzhen are totally different, whether on the supply side or the demand side, which will also affect the subsequent policy direction of the two cities.

From the supply side, Guangzhou's supply has always been adequate. According to Kerui's data, in 2020, a total of 146 commercial land will be sold, with a year-on-year increase of 62.22%; land transfer fee of 246.5 billion yuan will be obtained, with a year-on-year increase of 46.63%. From the perspective of commercial housing supply, there is no "low inventory" situation in Guangzhou.

According to the data of Zhongyuan Real estate, from the perspective of the overall market situation, in December 2020, the supply of first-hand houses in Guangzhou increased the inventory area to the highest level in nearly a year; however, due to the sharp increase in overall transactions since the second half of the year, the latest digestion cycle has been reduced to 7.8 months, and the overall situation of Guangzhou new housing is "fast promotion and fast sale".

Compared with Guangzhou, although Shenzhen is also making continuous efforts in the land supply side, due to the actual conditions, the inventory of commercial housing is also in a low range all the year round. According to the monitoring of leyoujia Research Center, as of December 31, 2020, the inventory area of first-hand residential buildings in Shenzhen is 3.128 million square meters. At present, the first-hand housing in Shenzhen is 6.6 months, which is still at a low level.

Shenzhen's "supply exceeds demand" situation will maintain a high fever among buyers. There is also a strong "hype" atmosphere in the market. There is still a wind of proxy holding and high leverage. Shenzhen may further increase its control in the future.

On November 30, 2020, Zhang xuefan, director of Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of housing and construction, also said in an interview that, in view of the current situation of inverted prices of first-hand and second-hand houses and the media's reflection on the situation of holding and speculating on behalf of others, the government departments are studying comprehensive control policies to resolutely crack down on speculation in the market.

Up to now, it is still unclear whether the "comprehensive regulation and control policy" will be implemented, but Shenzhen's control of house purchase funds is becoming more and more strict. A loan specialist of four major banks in Shenzhen pointed out that "at present, the approval of loans is indeed stricter, but if the down payment of the first house is not from the loan, it will not be too harsh."

Song Ding, deputy director of China urban economic expert committee, also suggested that the government could make a "loophole" action against the new situation in the property market, but suppressing the demand side is a way to stop the boiling. Shenzhen's fundamental principle is to increase supply from the supply side. At present, Shenzhen's practice has seen this trend. During the "14th five year plan" period, Shenzhen's land use will increase Supply and the associated housing supply will be significantly stretched.

Shenzhen housing and Construction Bureau released "Shenzhen 2020 real estate management data inventory" on January 11. According to the data, in 2020, Shenzhen further strengthened the construction of commercial housing, and completed a total of 12.36 million square meters of commercial housing construction area, the highest in previous years, an increase of 160% over the same period; the supply of commercial housing land was 227.53 hectares, which was 182% of the 2020 implementation plan.

In contrast, the Guangzhou market is more rational. Li Yujia pointed out that the property market in Guangzhou is stable on the whole, but some regions are rising a little, so it is unlikely to make any regulation policies now. Xiao Wenxiao, chief analyst of Guangzhou Kerui, also believes that "the government has given feedback (to drive up house prices) and there is no need to regulate and control policies. What the government should do is to stabilize the market supply-demand relationship and prevent excessive speculation by all parties concerned. "

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