A-Share: Double Hot And Cold

On the evening of January 14, several listed companies such as Tianhong shares and perfect world disclosed their share repurchase plans. According to incomplete statistics by reporters, since 2021, more than 100 listed companies have issued share repurchase plans or stock repurchase progress announcements.

As a common stock price stabilization measure in A-share market, except for special risk events, share repurchase is often accompanied by further improvement of the company's share price.

However, it is strange that just two days ago, the Shanghai stock index has just reached 3600 points. On one hand, the major indexes have repeatedly reached new highs. Under the group of institutions, the share prices of leading stocks are rising day by day. On the other hand, a large number of listed companies have started to buy back, trying to save the faltering stock price.

According to wind data, as of the evening of January 13, there were 19 Enterprises with a total market value of more than 500 billion yuan in the A-share market (excluding the new shares listed since December 31, 2020), while 3840 enterprises with a market value of less than 50 billion yuan, accounting for 92.82% of the total.

The 21st century economic reporter noted that among a large number of small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks, 548 enterprises with daily average trading volume less than 100000 hands, accounting for 14.27%. The A-share market is gradually divided into two extremes.

"There must be logic behind any large-scale extreme trend of the market. In mid-2020, we mentioned that the market is a structural bull market, not a comprehensive one. Some stocks are rising well, others are not. In addition to the trading, capital and other factors frequently discussed recently, there is fundamental logic behind this difference. " Yang Xia, director of investment and investment of Xuanyuan, pointed out in an interview.

A-share shares: A-share market

On the other side of the rising index, the A-share market's buyback programs are becoming more and more intensive.

On the evening of January 13, Ximei food, Guizhou bailing and other enterprises have issued share repurchase plans. The former plans to buy back shares at 26 million-51.15 million yuan, with the buyback price ranging from 20 yuan / share to 33 yuan / share, while the latter plans to buy back shares at 100-200 million yuan / share, with the buyback price no more than 12.30 yuan / share.

The reasons for both buybacks include "to enhance investor confidence and enhance the long-term investment value of the company's stock", and the main purpose is "to implement equity incentive plan or employee stock ownership plan".

The reporter noted that the stock prices of Ximei food and Guizhou bailing began to fall continuously from the peak stage in July and August 2020, and have recently dropped to a one-year low level.

After the issuance of the share repurchase plan, the stock prices of the two companies were all red, with the stock prices rising by 1.24% and 4.09% respectively, which had a significant boosting effect.

This is just a corner of the current A-share differentiation ecology. On the evening of January 14, a number of enterprises released repurchase related plans and progress. Among them, georgebey plans to buy back shares with RMB 80 million-150 million for the subsequent implementation of equity incentive or employee stock ownership plan, with the repurchase price not exceeding 7 yuan / share; Tianhao environment announced that it would buy back 55.69 million yuan of company shares for the first time

In addition, some enterprises even do not hesitate to "test" supervision, and withdraw after the release of the high transfer scheme.

On the evening of January 11, while releasing the performance forecast of 2020 with obvious positive performance, Wuxian, chairman of the board of directors, announced that Wu Xian proposed to distribute cash dividends of RMB 1.00 (including tax) to all shareholders for every 10 shares based on the total share capital on the equity registration date when implementing the distribution plan in the future, and transfer 7 shares to all shareholders for every 10 shares with capital reserve.

Although the next morning, water shares quickly withdrew this high transfer plan, the company's share price still ushered in a trading limit.

Behind this series of capital operation deeds, all point to a "amazing" phenomenon of A-share - "stock disaster bull". Under the funds, some white horse stocks rose strongly, driving the index to rise sharply. On the other hand, nearly 2000 A-share stocks fell in the whole market.

According to the statistics of 21st century economic report, nearly half of the 4000 A-share listed companies have seen their share prices decline since 2020, and more than 2700 listed companies have lost the market share price, accounting for 65%. At the same time, 323 companies in the A-share market doubled their share prices. After excluding the new shares listed in the year, the others were high-quality white horse stocks with a market value of more than 100 billion yuan.

"In the economic downturn, affected by deleveraging, trade war and epidemic situation, large companies have comparative advantages over small companies, which are reflected in their strong risk tolerance and ability to increase market share when the industry is in a downturn. This is true no matter from the data of large, medium and small enterprises of PMI, or from the performance growth rate of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 compared with those of China Securities 500 and China Securities 1000. This is a fundamental aspect of the market. In the economic downturn, theoretically speaking, the profitability of leading companies is more prominent than that of small companies. " Yang Xia pointed out.

Tan Changgui, founder and chief investment officer of Shenzhen Longhong investment, also told reporters: "Baima shares and leading stocks are the best assets of a shares. It's right for institutions to group together because they can grasp the bull market. Moreover, the institutional capital is large, and the allocation of leading stocks is convenient. Of course, this is just a phenomenon. Stocks in the bull market are all in rotation. Now, there is a upper limit for the rise of some stocks. If they rise to a certain extent, they will be differentiated, and if the performance is not good, they will still fall down. Finally, we have to return to the basic logic. "

Looking for undervalued depressions

It is worth mentioning that, with the increasingly obvious differentiation, the valuation of leading stocks keeps rising. According to the reporter's statistics, up to now, the number of 100 billion market value shares in the A-share market has reached 145. Among them, the valuation of leading enterprises such as liquor, medicine and new energy has also reached new highs, constantly refreshing the upper limit.

However, with the rising share prices of leading stocks, many market participants "question" the evidence of this group. The reporter noted that after the Shanghai stock index broke through 3600 points, there were obvious changes in the market capital flow in the past two trading days.

Take January 14 as an example, the main capital outflow of liquor concept on that day was 4.890 billion yuan, and the related index fell by 4.42%. A number of leading stocks such as Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye fell. The main capital outflow of the new energy automobile sector, which had been in a frenzy earlier, was 8.040 billion yuan, with the relevant index falling by 0.35%. Ningde era, the leader, dropped by more than 4% for two consecutive days.

"In the stock market, especially in a bull market, there will be obvious bubbles, and the constant strength effect of the strong is also very obvious, but the market will also have a correction process." Tan Changgui said.

Yang Xia also pointed out: "there is a certain correlation between the debt spread between China and the United States and the valuation of consumer leaders that foreign investors like to buy. At present, the debt spread between China and the United States has gradually narrowed. However, the valuation of the leading consumer stocks preferred by foreign investors is still going up, and the valuation has generally broken through the historical center. Historically, these two values will not deviate for too long. "

"If the marginal recovery rate of the US economy exceeds that of China before and after the full vaccination this year, the interest rate gap between China and the United States is expected to further accelerate narrowing, and the valuation of these consumer stocks with foreign preference will be under pressure." Yang Xia further added.

In fact, the reporter learned that, at present, the search for undervalued depressions has become the most concerned area for institutional investors, among which the performance realization is the most concerned topic.

Yang Xia pointed out: "it is not recommended to go to the overheated places. This year's investment is more difficult than last year, because the dominant investment opportunities are no longer cheap, and it is more necessary to screen individual stocks. Maybe you won't be so extreme in style. This year, the matching degree of valuation and performance of some small and medium-sized stocks has been more reasonable. The core pricing logic of the market will change from the last year's epidemic situation, which led to the valuation of water discharge and dry extraction, to EPS pricing this year. "

"There are still opportunities in semiconductor, pharmaceutical industry and consumer industry. The overall logic is to combine technology with fundamentals. At present, there is an upper limit to the rise of some stocks. If they rise to a certain extent, they will be divided. The core of our investment logic is to find "three good students" in the stock market. Even if they do not rise now, the market will give them a fair price in the future. " Tan Changgui pointed out.

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