Domestic Cotton Textile Industry Chain Recovered Well And Maintained Weak Oscillation In Short Term

Recently, under the background of good domestic economic recovery, two-way development of domestic and foreign demand, and improvement of global fundamentals, Zhengzhou cotton has been supported at 14900 yuan / ton line, and is currently showing weak oscillation. With the Spring Festival approaching, textile enterprises put on the schedule of holidays. After the early replenishment of raw materials and the cautious market mentality under the epidemic situation, it is expected that Zheng Mian will maintain a weak oscillation in the short term.

Domestic cotton textile industry chain recovered well

country The domestic economy is recovering at a high level and has a good momentum of development. At present, close to the Spring Festival holiday, textile enterprises still maintain a high opening rate to rush orders, cotton yarn prices after the early rise, the recent performance is stable, spinning profit is still relatively can View. The recovery of global demand, coupled with the limited operation of some major textile production and export countries due to the epidemic situation, the performance of outer yarn price is relatively strong. The price difference between internal and external yarn is hanging upside down, and cotton yarn import is still not large, which is good for domestic cotton yarn price.

It is estimated that the domestic reserve cotton inventory is about 1.62 million tons, which is at a low level, and there is a need for collection and storage. The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton on the spot and the price difference on the disk are in a downward trend, but they still can't meet the storage conditions. Global cotton supply and demand improved. The monthly supply and demand report of the US Department of agriculture in January was more than that. Under the favorable situation of global cotton supply and demand tightening and currency overspread, the performance of American cotton continued to be stronger. The current cotton price was weak at home and strong at abroad. The reserve cotton collection and storage played a supporting role for domestic cotton prices. According to the national cotton market monitoring, as of the week of January 22, 2021, the national cotton sales rate reached 56%, an increase of 7.8 percentage points year-on-year, and the cotton sales progress was relatively fast.

Xinjiang cotton ban has limited impact

Due to the high profit of cotton import and the large volume of domestic cotton import, 350000 tons of cotton will be imported in December 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 200000 tons. In 2020, the total cotton import will be 2.15 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 310000 tons. On December 23, 2020, the Tariff Commission of the State Council issued a notice, which decided to adjust the import tariff of some commodities from January 1, 2021. The cotton import cost calculated by the latest cotton sliding standard tax rate will be reduced by about 350 yuan / ton, which is good for cotton import. In 2020, the proportion of domestic machine picked cotton will be further increased, about 70%, which will help to reduce the cost of cotton. At present, the cotton price in Zhengzhou basically covers the cost of lint, and the domestic epidemic situation is repeated, so the price rebound faces the pressure of hedging.

Affected by the epidemic situation, the import volume of textiles and clothing of the United States in 2020 is greatly reduced compared with that in previous years. In recent years, China's proportion in the source countries of US textile and clothing imports has declined year by year, with the most obvious decline in 2019. In November 2020, only 18.88% of US cotton textiles and garments were imported from China, which was lower than 30.01% of the total imports. Although the share of China's textile and clothing exports to the United States has decreased, the overall export of textiles and clothing is better. From January to December 2020, the textile and clothing export will increase by 7.19% year on year. In addition, the new president of the United States has taken office, and the US ban on Xinjiang cotton may be relaxed.

China's domestic demand market is broad, the same demand for cotton, cotton yarn. Based on the first stage of economic and trade agreement reached between China and the United States in early 2020, and according to the actual domestic needs, China increased the import of agricultural products from the United States. As one of the main exporting countries of American cotton, by the week of January 14, 2021, China had signed a total of 4.4539 million bales of US cotton in 2020 / 2021, accounting for 34.86% of the total export of American cotton, with a year-on-year increase of 126.27%. According to the latest weekly export sales report of the U.S. Department of agriculture, China cancelled some American cotton import orders in the latest week. On the whole, although the market is still worried about Sino US relations and sanctions against Xinjiang cotton, the impact of the Xinjiang cotton ban has weakened, and Sino US relations are expected to improve.

To sum up, in the short term, Zheng Mian will maintain weak oscillation.