Jiaxing'S Restrictions On Purchase Reflect The Logic Of House Price Rotation

On March 15, Jiaxing City issued the notice on further promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, which further strengthened regulation and control in the aspects of strengthening the management of phased sales, improving the policy of restricting the purchase of commercial housing, expanding the scope of implementation of the restriction on the transfer of commercial housing, and strengthening financial supervision and management.

According to the new deal, buyers are limited to buying a house in two districts and five counties of Jiaxing, and can only be sold after two years of online signing.

Over the past year, Jiaxing's house prices have risen too fast. In March 2021, the housing price in Jiaxing urban area is 17880 yuan / m2; the house prices of all six districts in Jiaxing have increased on a month on month basis, and Nanhu, Xiuzhou and Tongxiang have increased by more than 3% on a month on month basis.

It is true that Jiaxing, as a new city in the cross circle of Shanghai and Hangzhou metropolitan areas, has both industry introduction, population inflow and imagination space for urbanization development, which inevitably gives real estate sales and investors an opportunity to hype, and regulation and control also follows.

Jiaxing regulation and control upgrading

On March 18, a school district housing project in Jiashan, Dazhong Jiayuan, was opened. A salesman expressed his view on the rising house prices of Shanghai by more than 20% last year. The price of Dazhong Jiayuan is 18000 yuan / m2, which is higher than the average price level of Jiaxing (15000 yuan / m2). Jiashan's house price growth ranked the first in five counties of Jiaxing, but there was still a certain gap compared with Jiaxing City. In 2020, the total price of a 89 square meter house in the science and technology city of Nanhu District of Jiaxing will rise by 800000-1000000 yuan; the school district housing of the same area in Jiashan will increase by 100000-200000 yuan in 2020.

A salesman in Jiaxing pointed out that the new deal mainly restricted the number of customers with more houses in their hands. If you had bought a house in two districts and five counties under the jurisdiction of Jiaxing, you can't buy a house in any area now. In addition, Jiaxing has stipulated that it is necessary to sign an online contract for two years before selling a house. Most people in the industry believe that this is not severe compared with the sales restriction of buildings with a winning rate of less than 10% in Hangzhou within five years after the delivery of the house.

"Now Jiashan's first-hand housing is particularly small, second-hand trading volume in the amplification, active trading." The former sales staff pointed out that one of the characteristics of active investors is that the second-hand housing market has risen. In 2020, Jiashan's first-hand houses sold 1.3199 million square meters, ranking first in five counties of Jiaxing. Looking back at the transaction trend of the second-hand housing market in 2020, we can find that the turnover of Jiashan's second-hand housing has been at a high level since 2020. In addition to the impact of the epidemic in February 2020, the monthly turnover of more than 2000 sets was maintained after April of the same year.

Jiashan is close to Shanghai, Haining is close to Hangzhou, Linping and Xiasha. Due to the limited purchase in Hangzhou, Haining once became the choice of Hangzhou overflow customers. The prices of some buildings in Haining are even comparable to those in the downtown area of Jiaxing.

According to Jiaxing Kerui data statistics, Jiaxing house prices will rise by 3.9% in 2020. The price of Jiaxing increased, including 3.01% at the municipal level, 16.39% in Haining, 8.79% in Jiashan, 18% in Tongxiang, 3.14% in Pinghu and 17.38% in Haiyan.

Lu Wenxi, an analyst at Zhongyuan market in Shanghai, pointed out that the biggest feature of real estate regulation and control this year is to prevent overheating. Jiaxing's regulation and control upgrading is likely to be affected by the upgrading of Shanghai's regulation and control.

Behind the rise in house prices

Lu Wenxi believes that Jiaxing, as a place bordering Shanghai, has always attracted the attention of Shanghai buyers. Many buyers are looking for retirement or vacation plus investment. In addition, Shanghai Provident Fund can also be used in Jiaxing. The upgrading of Shanghai's regulation and control may be accompanied by capital overflow. In fact, from the past several rounds of property market, there is no lack of such phenomenon.

Jiaxing property market is also more favorable. First of all, in 2020, Jiaxing has a permanent resident population of 4.726 million, an increase of 70000 over the same period of last year, ranking third in the province in terms of increment. Like Hangzhou, the annual net inflow of population has injected a stimulant into the property market.

Secondly, from the perspective of location value improvement, Jiaxing is located in the center of the four richest cities in the Yangtze River Delta, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Hangzhou and Ningbo. These four cities are all at the level of trillion GDP, while Jiaxing is only 340 billion yuan.

Recently, the full text of the fourteenth five year plan for national economic and social development of the people's Republic of China and the outline of the long-term goals for 2035 were officially released. Accelerating the construction of the G60 science and technology innovation corridor in the Yangtze River Delta has been included in the national "fourteenth five year plan". The outline puts forward that "aiming at the international advanced scientific and technological innovation capacity and industrial system, accelerating the construction of the Yangtze River Delta G60 scientific and technological innovation corridor and along the Shanghai Nanjing Industrial Innovation belt, and improving the Yangtze River Delta region's ability to allocate global resources and radiate to drive national development.".

In fact, the G60 science and technology innovation corridor in the Yangtze River Delta has been planned for five years. It started in Songjiang in 2016, connected Jiahang in 2017, linked nine cities in 2018, and incorporated into the national "Yangtze River Delta regional integration development planning outline" in 2019.

With the integration of the Yangtze River Delta and the construction and operation of Suzhou Jiaxing Hangzhou and Shanghai Jiaxing Ningbo high-speed railway, Jiaxing will become the four core cities around Jiaxing and even the Northern Zhejiang transportation hub connecting Shanghai and Jiangsu. With the rapid development of Hangzhou in recent years, Jiaxing has been basically included in the urban planning. Its low-lying nature is obvious, its strategic significance will be increasingly prominent, and its potential is self-evident.

Thirdly, more important is the introduction of industry. Over the years, the economy of Jiaxing's five counties ranks among the top 100 in China, and private enterprises are developed. For example, Haining has leather crystal energy; Jiashan has plastic industry; Haiyan has nuclear power industry; Pinghu is the town of buttons; Tongxiang has the global glass fiber and product giant Jushi group and the annual Wuzhen Internet Conference.

Zhejiang plate rotation

It is worth mentioning that after the introduction of Jiaxing's purchase and sales restriction policy, sales personnel intend to introduce investors into other plates around Hangzhou, such as Hangzhou Bay or Huzhou market.

As a matter of fact, the plate linkage in Zhejiang has already appeared. After the Spring Festival in 2021, the heat of land market will spread from Hangzhou and Ningbo to second and third tier cities such as Jinhua, Shaoxing, Jiaxing, and then to counties and towns. The conduction effect is very obvious. According to the statistics of Zhejiang Daily Media Real Estate Research Institute, from March 1 to 11, land prices in nine regions of Zhejiang Province have been refreshed, including Hangzhou Tonglu, Ningbo Fenghua and Cixi, Jinhua Yiwu and Yongkang, Taizhou Yuhuan, Wenzhou Dongtou, Huzhou Urban Area and Lishui urban area.

Ding Jiangang, President of Zhejiang Daily Media Real Estate Research Institute, pointed out that although before and during the NPC and CPPCC sessions, officials from the financial sector repeatedly warned about the real estate asset bubble, and the banking industry began to strictly investigate the misappropriation of credit funds into the stock market and real estate market, but the financial data released on March 10 showed that the credit and social data were still much higher than expected. In February, RMB loans increased by 1.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 452.9 billion yuan year-on-year. In February, the increase of social financing scale was 1.71 trillion yuan, 839.2 billion yuan more than that of the same period of last year, the highest increase since 2002. M2, a broad currency, grew by 10.1% in February. It grew at double-digit rates for 10 consecutive months last year and returned to double-digit growth after a month.

Under the strong expectation of monetary easing and asset inflation, the adjustment of land policy is superimposed. The 22 cities in China, including Hangzhou and Ningbo, provide land only three times a year. Many real estate enterprises have disrupted their land acquisition plans this year, so they must rearrange their investment plates this year.

Under many uncertain factors, some enterprises take preventive actions to take land in cities that are not affected by the three centralized land supply and even the third and fourth tier cities, which leads to the warming of land market in Zhejiang Province.

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