Yulin Origin Coal Price Rises Three Times A Day, Upstream And Downstream Benefit Distribution Imbalance

"It rose 30 yuan yesterday morning, 20 yuan at noon, 10 yuan in the afternoon, and 50 yuan today. And the higher the price, the more people will pull coal... "Said a manager surnamed Xue of Yulin coal trading center in Shaanxi Province on May 12.

How to avoid the price rise? We need to grab and load the coal into the car, so it will not rise.

According to a successful purchaser, the coal loading price was 710 yuan / ton on the 11th, and 810 yuan / ton on the 12th. Each truck carried 33 tons of coal. On the 11th, the cost of 10 cars saved 33000 yuan.

As of May 12, the tax inclusive price of some local varieties of coal in Yulin has risen to 980 yuan to 990 yuan / ton, which is close to the price of 1000 yuan. This can be described as "no one wants to be the first bird."

What echoes with the front line of coal grab is the continuous feedback given by the capital market.

On May 12, coal futures continued to rise sharply. At about 14:40 p.m., domestic steam coal futures and coking coal futures rose by 5.4% and 4.4% respectively. While the former continued to set a new high since listing, the price of 944 yuan / ton was very close to the 1000 yuan mark.

We should know that may is still in the off-season of coal consumption, and the market performance is relatively flat at this time in previous years, so why will there be such a scene of centralized coal grabbing this year?

Yulin sample: 300 coal mines, 100 stop production

Yulin, Shaanxi Province, is one of the important coal producing towns in China.

After the Spring Festival, the local coal price is only 400 yuan to 450 yuan / ton, but now it has risen to more than 700 yuan / ton. According to the above manager Xue said, "today (12) has increased 50 yuan, it is expected to rise another 50 yuan tomorrow."

The reason is that the relationship between supply and demand plays a role. Continuous inspection and maintenance are the two core reasons he gave to reporters, which led to the local supply unable to meet the market demand, leading to a sharp rise in prices, and the momentum was very strong, and did not mean to stop.

Let's start with environmental inspection. According to manager Xue, Yulin local "May Day" holiday, as long as the land or production of coal mines with legal and compliance problems are all suspended production, "given two months to go through the procedures, can not do without production."

There are more than 300 local coal mines in Yulin, and about 100 coal mines which were shut down due to the above-mentioned influence after the May Day festival.

As a result, it is easy to see that there are few trucks coming to pull coal, and they concentrate on pouring into the remaining 200 coal yards that are still in production. The number of customers is more than one, the coal yard first thought of is the price rise.

Secondly, safety inspection is still in the stage of spot check at any time.

According to manager Xue, "now many coal yards stop production when they hear about the inspection, and wait until the inspectors leave."

However, environmental protection and safety inspection always exist. Why would it suddenly break out after May Day this year?

The answer is that the implementation of the policy has become more stringent. In this regard, manager Xue also feedback that "this is a problem left over by history. In fact, last year, the coal yard was given one year to go through the formalities. Until this year's" May Day "compulsory implementation began. Finally, many coal mines with incomplete procedures stopped production during the" May Day "period, and after the inventory was sold out, the coal mines with incomplete procedures stopped production, Market supply and demand are changing rapidly. "

In addition, the 21st century economic reporter also learned that the rapid rise in coal prices in the near future also includes the factors that downstream enterprises mispredict the price trend.

Only from the perspective of the price operation of steam coal futures, the price has been relatively high since December last year, and some downstream enterprises have expected to reduce their prices, and plan to replenish the inventory in the slack period of the market in May and June this year.

As a result, the price of coal rose instead of falling, and even the rate of increase was far beyond the market expectation. The plan of replenishing inventory was backward. Now it is just in the period of summer demand peak, and downstream enterprises can only be brave enough to buy and rise.

"In fact, the fundamental changes of the coal industry are relatively limited. The main reason is that the coal industry will enter the summer immediately, and the power plant should prepare for the goods. The closer we get to June, the more we can't delay. " Zhang Feilong, director of Yimei Research Institute, said on the 12th.

In his view, from the overall supply and demand relationship of the industry, the current market also continues the previous trend of relatively tight supply and demand. The domestic supply side has not been significantly strengthened. The imported coal has encountered certain resistance, while the demand side of electricity, steel and building materials has continued to grow. "At present, the demand side has maintained at least 10% growth."

Assuming that the supply side remains unchanged, the above estimated results will bring at least 10% of the gap, not to mention that Yulin and other coal fields have significantly reduced the boosting effect.

"Coal super crazy" disturbs capital market

The case of Yulin is just a microcosm of the current coal industry.

Throughout the country, both the futures market which finds forward prices and the securities market that captures the prosperity of the industry have made great response.

First of all, the futures market, the current domestic listed related futures varieties are mainly steam coal, coking coal and coke. In terms of market performance, the above-mentioned varieties have become the commodities with the highest increase after the May 1st Festival, second only to iron ore and glass futures.

According to statistics, from May 1 to 12, according to the settlement price, the top five domestic futures market gains were iron ore (17.28%), glass (14.45%), coking coal (14.06%), steam coal (13.19%) and coke futures, which had a weak performance, also increased by 7.53%.

It should be pointed out that since the domestic futures market has established a complete set of trading risk control system, whenever a single product price appears "unilateral market" and triggers relevant rules, the exchange will cool down by adjusting handling charges, margin and other means.

After such a rapid rise in the short term, these varieties have obviously entered the above-mentioned regulation cycle.

Taking the thermal coal futures as an example, since May 6, the transaction fee standard of this variety has been adjusted to 10 yuan / hand. At the same time, since the settlement on May 13, the trading margin standard has been adjusted to 12%, the limit range has been adjusted to 8%, and the trading margin standard of some recent contracts such as 2106 and 2107 has been adjusted to 15%, and the range of up and down limit has been adjusted to 10%.

It can be foreseen that if the prices of subsequent related products rise further and trigger relevant rules, the regulatory measures at the exchange level will continue, and even the possibility of upgrading will not be ruled out.

On the other hand, under the logic of "looking at futures and speculation in stocks", individual stocks of coal plate have also become a star variety in the A-share market in the near future, even stronger than steel stocks in brother plate.

From May 1 to 12, there are only five trading days in total, but in such a short period of time, there have been seven stocks in the coal plate, with an increase of more than 20%, in which the cumulative increase of Shanxi coking coal is more than 38%.

Compared with steel, nonferrous metals and other pro cyclical plate, coal stocks also maintained a more obvious advantage.

According to statistics, during the above period, the average growth rate of Shenwan coal industry was 14.33%, while that of Shenwan iron and steel and basic metals was 11.27% and 7.12% respectively.

The core logic is that product price increases will directly drive the industry's profitability, thus providing a market for the secondary market to raise the valuation.

However, in terms of the historical relationship between the trend of commodities and stocks, the secondary market price often includes the valuation of the long-term expectation, and will reach the peak ahead of the commodity market.

The upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are different in temperature and temperature

When the commodity price fluctuates in a certain range, the profit distribution pattern of the upstream, middle and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain is relatively fixed. Therefore, whenever the price rises sharply and falls sharply, the above balance will be broken, and the industry chain will re enter into the redistribution of interests.

Coal, obviously no exception, can make upstream and downstream feel relatively comfortable price is 535 yuan / ton.

Taking 2019 as an example, the pricing mechanism of medium and long-term coal contracts provided by the national development and Reform Commission is the "benchmark price + floating price" pricing mechanism, and the pricing mechanism of quarterly and monthly long-term coal long-term agreement and outsourcing coal long-term agreement pricing mechanism requires that in principle, it should be kept within the green range (i.e., 500-570 yuan / T), and the price should not exceed the upper limit of the Yellow range (i.e., no more than 600 yuan / ton).

Well, according to the current market price, the upstream is extremely comfortable and the downstream will be injured to the end.

First of all, from the perspective of production characteristics, the cost side of the coal industry has very limited changes. When the sales price is higher than the cost price, all the extra is the profit of the enterprise. The more you rise, the more you earn.

In response to the abnormal fluctuation of the stock price on May 10, Zhengzhou coal power pointed out that "since the second quarter, under the background of the continuous improvement of the national macro-economy, the demand for industrial electricity has increased significantly compared with the same period last year. At the same time, affected by various factors such as safety supervision and environmental protection policies and maintenance of Daqin line, the domestic raw coal supply has decreased slightly year-on-year, The tight supply and demand pattern supports the continuous upward trend of steam coal prices in all links, and the coal prices of the company also rise accordingly

Guanghui energy is even more straightforward, "the coal projects owned by the company are mainly concentrated in Xinjiang, showing the advantages of low mining difficulty and low cost in general... With the continuous adjustment of energy structure, the proportion of coal in the primary energy structure of the country may gradually decrease, but the total amount will steadily increase due to the needs of the city. Therefore, the rise in coal prices has a positive impact on the company's performance. "

In exploring the rise in coal prices, the company also said some of the industry's current situation, "carbon neutral suppression of investment... State owned enterprises to build coal mines has become a kind of" political error ", and private enterprises have been" looking back 20 years in Inner Mongolia "to curb their willingness to build new coal mines."“ Over production can be investigated for criminal responsibility, and no one dares to exceed production. "

In contrast, thermal power, steel, building materials and chemical industry in the downstream of the industrial chain are another scene.

Among them, steel benefits from the synchronous adjustment of its own price, as well as the relatively backward increase of coke price, so the impact is relatively limited.

But the tower brand group of building materials industry will bear the conduction of coal price rise.

According to the reply given by the company in recent two days, its coal reserves generally meet the production demand of one month. Whenever the price of coal rises by 100 yuan per ton, the cost of cement per ton is expected to increase by about 8.8 yuan.

After the cost rises, if you want to maintain the previous profits, you need to conduct downward step by step. Therefore, recently, the cement prices in Shaanxi, Gansu and Beijing Tianjin Hebei regions have also increased gradually, with the range of 20-60 yuan / ton.

In the view of some market participants, the supply and demand of coal market will not change too obviously in the short term. The future variables will be more about whether some adjustments will be made at the policy level, such as ensuring supply.

The rise in coal prices seems far from over.

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