Investigation On "Lack Of Core": Delay In Delivery Of Imported Cars In 4S Shops Of Middle And Lower Reaches Electronic Factories

? ? ? The global "core shortage" is still severe, and the automobile industry still can not get chips, so that the delivery of some downstream automobile enterprises is hindered.

? ? ? Recently, the 21st Century Capital Research Institute learned from a BMW 4S store in Shanghai that due to the lack of core, the delivery schedule of imported BMW models has been affected.

"The core shortage of imported cars is serious, the delivery time can not be promised, and it is expected to return to normal in the fourth quarter. At present, it is to ensure the supply of domestic cars. Because of the large demand for domestic BMW models, the manufacturer will supply the production and sales of these models first. " The person in charge of the store said.

Coincidentally, the recent news about automobile enterprises stopping production frequently appeared in newspapers.

According to the statistics of the 21st Century Institute of capital, Japanese car companies such as Toyota and Honda, as well as Volkswagen, Ford and general motors, have cut production. Many factories in North America, such as Ford, Nissan and Volkswagen, stopped production due to "lack of core" in June, and Hyundai Kia and other South Korean automobile enterprises also suffered a new round of production suspension due to "lack of core".

Not only car companies, but also panels, laptops, mobile phones, small household appliances and so on have varying degrees of core problems.

Because of the lack of core, Zhongshan lamp enterprises in Guangdong Province have the voice that "there is no way to receive a single product, and there is no money to buy it". What's more, it pushes the industrial dilemma under the "lack of core" to the front of the stage again.

Calculation of the influence of "lack of core"

On May 20, Ford said it would suspend or cut production at eight North American plants in June because of the continuing impact of chip shortages on the auto industry.

It is reported that the production of Ford's eight North American factories will be suspended in different periods.

Previously, Ford had closed several factories and cut production several times because of the continued decline in the supply of key chips. The affected models include Ford Mustang, Ruiji, as well as the high margin F-150 pickup truck and Bronco sport SUV.

"Our team will continue to make full use of existing chip resources and continue to look for unique solutions to provide dealers and customers with as many high-quality cars as possible," Ford said in an email statement

Nissan also said on May 19 that it plans to cut its North American production in June due to a shortage of chips.

Earlier this month, it was reported that Nissan's Infiniti would suspend production of the qx50, saving chips for the qx60, which will go into production this summer.

According to the statistics of the Capital Research Institute of the 21st century, Honda, Volkswagen, Ford, GM, Mitsubishi automobile, Hyundai, Kia and other auto companies have announced that some factories have been cut or shut down due to insufficient chip supply.

In South Korea, due to the cut-off supply of automobile chips and the pressure of production interruption, some automobile enterprises have recently launched simplified models with reduced configuration and lower price to maintain production.

For example, Hyundai and Kia will produce some reduced configuration vehicles and no longer provide some functional configuration for the vehicles, so as to reduce the dependence on vehicle chips, and the market price of these downsized vehicles will also be reduced.

The 21st Century Capital Research Institute recently visited a number of 4S stores and found that the delivery time of imported cars has been greatly affected.

The person in charge of a BMW 4S shop said, "the demand for imported cars is relatively small and small, and the sales are in short supply. Now customers order imported cars, waiting time is more than a few months, can not guarantee. "

He expects the situation to improve in the fourth quarter of this year.

A Mercedes Benz 4S store also told the 21st century capital research institute that "imported models are in particular in short supply, waiting for January to February is the normal."

China Automobile Industry Association said that based on the current situation of the industry, the shortage of chip supply is expected to continue until January 2022.

CAAC said that the supply shortage of auto chips and other parts will continue to affect the production rhythm of enterprises. It is estimated that the impact of the second quarter of 2021 will be greater than that of the first quarter, and it is still necessary to maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude.

Earlier, Li Shaohua, Deputy Secretary General of the China Automobile Industry Association, said the chip supply shortage was expected to ease in six months at the earliest, and it may take nine months to a year at present.

Compared with other industries, why does the automobile industry seem to be most affected by the "lack of core"?

Some people in the industry pointed out that for chip manufacturers, the automobile industry is not a priority customer, and smartphone manufacturers are the preferred customers in the chip industry, because they are more willing to pay for more advanced and more profitable chips.

With the growth of downstream demand for consumer electronics, orders from related electronics manufacturers are pouring into the upstream chip manufacturers, which makes the lack of core automobile manufacturers worse.

Downstream consumer electronics has been affected

Since Huawei lacked core since last year, after TSMC was unable to provide Huawei with high-end chips, the latest sales of Huawei mobile phones showed a very obvious impact, while other domestic brands also took advantage of a large number of goods.

Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei's consumer business, said: "in just two years, Huawei's high-end products were mainly ceded to apple."

Xiaomi has long been the early warning of "lack of core" in 2021.

On February 24, Lu Weibing, vice president of Xiaomi group, said on his microblog that "this year's chip is too short, not lacking, it's extremely short..." the next day, Hongmi K40 series was put on sale, and since then, it has been in the "out of stock" state, and it needs to make an appointment to rush for purchase.

On May 19, Lu Weibing tweeted again that "the cycle of chip shortage will not be too short, and it is certainly impossible to alleviate this year."

He also announced that he would give a public speech on May 26, with the theme of "I give you my true core" and will talk about "global core shortage".

The latest report from DIGITIMES research, a market research organization, shows that due to the shortage of semiconductor parts, the shipment of smart phones of Xiaomi, oppo, vivo and other mobile phone brands will decline in the second quarter of this year, and it is expected to pick up again in the second half of this year.

It can be seen that the lack of core wave has fully affected the mobile phone industry.

Not only the mobile phone industry, with the continuous improvement of the intelligent degree of home appliances, the demand for chips in the home appliance industry is growing.

AI Xiaoming, President of whirlpool China, one of the world's largest home appliance companies, said publicly that the global chip shortage not only slowed down car production, but also began to affect the home appliance industry. According to Mr. AI, whirlpool received about 10% less chip deliveries in March than its orders.

Gan Jianguo, general manager of Philips air conditioning (China) operation headquarters, also said that chips on air-conditioning computer boards began to be in short supply since November last year, and the delivery cycle of chips has been extended. At present, it is necessary to prepare the products 180 days or even 360 days in advance, compared with 45-60 days in advance at most. Besides American and Japanese enterprises, the domestic supply of chip suppliers has reached 50%.

Coincidentally, Han Zhongxi, vice president of the Television Department of Samsung Electronics, said that more than half of the world's TV manufacturers are facing the problem of chip shortage, so many enterprises can't make TV at all; LG Electronics, a home appliance manufacturer, said the chip shortage had not affected the company's overall production, but acknowledged that it did pose a risk.

In view of the current situation, the 21st Century Capital Research Institute believes that the industries with the most significant impact on the output of chip shortage include automobile and consumer electronic equipment such as computers, mobile phones, instruments, audio-visual equipment and household appliances. The chip shortage is likely to last until at least the end of this year.

Investigation on the lack of core in electronic factory

Recently, a Zhongshan City "about chip demand situation touch check notice" spread in the network.

The notice shows that: at present, the supply of some chips is in short supply. In order to fully understand the demand, reserve and supply of chips of relevant enterprises in our city, and effectively deal with the impact of chip shortage on related industries in our city, we are now conducting a survey on the demand of chip enterprises in the whole city.

Zhongshan is one of the most important electronic manufacturing cities in China. Lighting (accounting for 70% of the national market), hardware (Southern lock capital), household appliances and other fields occupy a considerable market share in the country.

A person in charge of Zhongshan lamp enterprise said in an interview with the media, "it's very difficult for me to do it. Other accessories are not big problems, the most important is the chip.

According to him, no price increase can be obtained. I used to use more than 40 cents of IC, but now I can't get one yuan and five yuan in cash, and the lamp makers in ancient town can't get the chip now.

A cruel reality is that under the rising price trend of core shortage, it is difficult for large automobile manufacturers to get chip orders, and LED driven lighting chips have become a part of the production capacity most likely to be cut off by wafer factories.

This kind of lack of core is particularly serious in small and medium-sized electronic manufacturers.

The 21st Century Capital Research Institute has noticed that on a live broadcasting platform, a converter manufacturer in Shenzhen has openly searched for chip suppliers, saying that "there is a single product that cannot be produced.".

A professional charger manufacturer in Dongguan told the 21st Century Capital Research Institute, "the company has a single missing core, (chip) is more difficult to squeeze than toothpaste." During March, the company had a batch of chips arrived, and immediately worked overtime to organize production.

A person in charge of an electronic factory in Zhejiang said, "due to the lack of core, the iron pimples in the factory are sleeping." There are also drive manufacturers to remind customers: "in order to avoid missing core, order early."

For the lack of core industry, the level of A-share listed companies is relatively calm.

White power giant Midea Group responded to the question of whether it is affected by the lack of core: "at present, we do not have this situation. Because we have some (chips) that we can supply by ourselves. We have a chip factory, right here in our headquarters. "

The walkers, who mainly focus on multimedia speakers and car speakers, said on the interactive platform that since last year, the company has been concerned about the global shortage of chips, constantly adjusting procurement and inventory to ensure the normal operation of production. At present, it seems that production will not be affected.

Bear electric also said that the current production and operation is normal.

On May 18, at the 2020 annual general meeting of shareholders of kovos (603486. SH), chairman Qian Dongqi, in answering the questions raised by small and medium shareholders, said: "the company's business has been developing steadily, and the sweeping robot is not what we think. At the bottleneck period, there are still many technologies that can be innovated. The problem of missing cores may exist in the next one to two years. "

From the exchanges between the 21st Century Capital Research Institute and a number of industry insiders, the industry generally has expectations of chip shortage.

"Lack of core is a problem facing the whole industry." Many companies said that they have made corresponding stock preparation, or through chip self-sufficiency and other measures to solve the problem.

According to the production plan and demand forecast, the company has its own inventory management method.

Winit said that the company has a strategic partnership with suppliers, the stock situation is good, chip shortage will not affect the company's operation in the short term.

But the lack of core effect is not nonexistent, boss electric appliances said, due to the lack of microcontroller procurement, new high-end products were delayed four months.

Xinjie Electric said that in view of the impact of the chip shortage, the company has made corresponding preparations for stock preparation, but in the long run, there is still great pressure, and the company will continue to implement effective raw material procurement planning measures.

The 21st Century Capital Research Institute believes that in the current round of core shortage, due to a complete supply system, large and medium-sized enterprises will have less impact in the short term, while some of the mid stream processing links and many small enterprises in the downstream will be greatly affected.

At the same time, in terms of chip types, the shortage of high-end chips has occupied the production capacity of medium and low-end chips, and the chip production capacity is facing a comprehensive shortage.

This also means that the logic of industrial development has gradually become a signboard: domestic head wafer, packaging and testing, materials and equipment manufacturers are expected to usher in rapid development.

According to the analysis of 21st Century Capital Research Institute, among A-share related leading companies, wafers include SMIC international, Huahong semiconductor, China Resources micro, San'an optoelectronics, etc; Sealed test includes Changdian technology, Huatian technology, Tongfu microelectronics, Jingfang technology, Huafeng measurement and control, etc; Materials include Shanghai silicon industry, NANDA optoelectronics, Shanghai Xinyang, Anji technology, etc; The equipment includes Zhongwei company, North Huachuang, Jingsheng Electromechanical, etc.

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