The Overall Premium Rate Of 29 Pieces Of Land Is Nearly 30%. The Heat Of Centralized Land Supply In Ningbo For The First Time Does Not Decrease

In recent years, the transaction of second-hand housing in Ningbo has dropped sharply, and the rate of first-hand house selection has increased. The land market in Ningbo is still hot: more than 70 real estate enterprises have signed up for 29 pieces of land.

On May 26 and May 27, Ningbo completed the first centralized land supply: 29 pieces of land with a total transaction price of 35.8 billion yuan, 19 pieces of land were sold at the top price. The overall transaction price premium rate was close to 30%. Several head real estate enterprises such as Vanke, poly and green City were gathered to participate in the bidding, and the head real estate enterprises took the majority of the land.

Greentown won 6 pieces of land with 9.772 billion yuan, one of which was acquired jointly with Ningbo Rail Transit. Rong'an real estate, Dexin real estate, Jiayuan real estate and new hope real estate, which have been deeply cultivated in Zhejiang Province, have also made achievements in this land auction. Even South China real estate enterprises, such as Pearl River Investment, Yuexiu real estate, time China and hailenburg, which have rarely appeared in the local auction market recently, have also flocked and made some achievements.

According to the public information, the first batch of 29 plots (including one land for resettlement housing) was transferred in Ningbo, with a total area of 1981 Mu and a total construction area of 3.0244 million square meters, with a total starting price of 28.64 billion yuan. The plot covers six areas: Haishu District, Jiangbei District, Yinzhou District, Beilun District, Zhenhai District and Fenghua district.

Looking back on Ningbo property market, on May 21, Ningbo Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development issued the notice on issues related to the implementation of the policy of purchase and sale restriction in the work of monetary compensation and resettlement for housing expropriation, which clearly pointed out that the purchase and upgrading of relocated households and the sales restriction of the first house for 5 years were specified. With the increase of interest rates in Ningbo, subtle changes have taken place in the property market of Ningbo recently. A Ningbo home buyer told the 21st century economic reporter that the turnover of second-hand houses has recently fallen by half. However, he thinks that the recent market adjustment is only a matter of time. Recently, first-hand houses are still popular, but buyers have more choices. Some people will abandon their purchase if they have no ideal housing resources.

One fact is that Ningbo's centralized land supply does not seem to cool down the land market. However, most of the land for this time is located in the suburbs or remote areas of the urban area. For example, star plots such as Minghu TOD have not been released. Even Yinzhou Central District, which has been cut off from supply in XinPan, has no land supply.

Lu Wenxi, an analyst at Zhongyuan Real estate market in Shanghai, pointed out that at present, the first centralized land supply in various places will be hot. First of all, most real estate enterprises have the mentality of "competitors are taking land, and their own companies should keep up with it"; Secondly, the first batch of land supply rules have not changed, or become strict. In addition, the enterprise investment and development departments have land acquisition indicators. Under such psychological drive and realistic demand, the situation of real estate enterprises actively taking land appears.

Market differentiation of primary and secondary housing

Ningbo did have a dramatic scene: two weeks before and after the new deal, the number of second-hand housing transactions in Ningbo dropped by about 300 sets; Investors in Cicheng and Fenghua reflect that after the introduction of the new deal, the transaction has slowed down after listing.

As a strong second tier city, Ningbo's property market is on the rise in recent years. At the beginning of May, the data released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that in April 2021, the average price of Ningbo house price was 26000 yuan / m2, with a slight decrease of 0.79% on a month on month basis, and an increase of 13.23% on a year-on-year basis; This level of housing price ranks the second in Zhejiang Province, and has surpassed Fuzhou and Tianjin, ranking ninth in China.

Like Hangzhou, Wenzhou, Shaoxing, Jinhua and Jiaxing, Ningbo is also a city with land sales income of nearly 100 billion yuan or above. According to data provided by Shanghai Zhongyuan Real estate, the number of residential units sold in Ningbo in March and April this year was more than 6000.

Recently, Ningbo announced the adjustment and control policy of "limited purchase and sale" on the mortgage interest rate. In late May, ICBC of Ningbo, ABC, BOC, CCB and bocom successively raised the mortgage interest rate, with the first set of housing increased from 5.35% to 5.45%, and the second set of housing from 5.6% to 5.7%. That is to say, the first set of housing and the second set of housing increased by 10 bp respectively.

Due to the price limit, the prices of the first-hand and second-hand houses in Ningbo are also obviously inverted. Recently, in the Yanger River Huicheng, which is queuing up to get the pre-sale certificate, the sales staff told the buyers who came to consult that after the new policy was introduced, the lottery winning probability of no house households would be higher.

However, the new deal and the rise in interest rates have brought about significant changes in Ningbo's property market in the past week. The volume, area and amount of second-hand housing in Ningbo City decreased month on month.

According to the statistics of local institutions in Ningbo, during the week from May 15 to May 21, the volume of residential stock in Haishu, Jiangbei and Yinzhou decreased by 8% month on month, the total transaction area decreased by 6% month on month, and the total transaction amount decreased by 2% month on month.

Under such market fluctuations, real estate enterprises take more like in the late rising of gambling. For the first time in Ningbo, we can see that the threshold for real estate enterprises to enter the market has been raised; Most of the plots require blank sales, and Fenghua district implements double restrictions; Before the transfer of the first batch of plots, Ningbo's purchase restriction circle expanded.

Debate on profit rate

For real estate enterprises, land acquisition is related to the survival problem. At this time, the profit margin may be put in the second place. On May 26, Ningbo transferred 15 plots on the first day of centralized land supply, with a total area of 1248 Mu and a total construction area of 2.04 million square meters. The total starting price was nearly 20.3 billion yuan, accounting for 71%. As a result, 15 plots in Ningbo sold 25.53 billion yuan on May 26, with a premium rate of 25.7%.

Some people in the industry pointed out that the first day's transfer situation can basically see the market pattern of Ningbo: the profit margin tends to be lower, the real estate enterprises deeply plough into the region, and the land acquisition concentration of large housing enterprises is high.

Before that, the profit margin of the real estate enterprises in Hangzhou was only 1% - 2%. Facing the overall profit margin of only 1% - 5%, the real estate industry can already be compared with the manufacturing industry. The third-party organization "Haodi Research Institute" calculated the pure homestead sold this time, with an average profit margin of 0.75%, slightly lower than 1% in the first quarter.

A more intuitive data is that the price to land ratio of these plots in Ningbo has been further reduced. For example, the Xiaying plot in Yinzhou District won by new hope has a floor price of 21000 yuan / square meter. At present, the price of new houses on sale in this block ranges from 26000 yuan / square meter to 30000 yuan / square meter. The ratio of house price to land price is only 0.7 at most, and the profit space is small. In addition, the project needs to sell existing houses, and the lag of sales payment collection will increase the pressure on funds. According to the capital cost of delaying sales for one year and annualizing 8%, the expected profit margin is only 5.6%. Considering the increase of construction costs along the subway, the profit margin will be further reduced.

If the actual land price of each plot is calculated by calculating the land price of the self-contained part of the land price at a discount of 60% of the land price of the marketable residential buildings and calculating the construction and installation cost of free transfer, the net interest rate of these plots is not high. For example, the actual land price of the plot acquired by Wenzhou era in Jinping, Fenghua is about 10000 yuan / m2, which is 2206 yuan / m2 higher than that of the adjacent land in May 2019, and the land price in two years has increased by 27%; Industry insiders reflect that the price limit of new houses in this area of Ningbo has decreased by 2.8% compared with the actual price of previous plots.

In this way, Ningbo's market performance is the same as Hangzhou's, after the new housing price limit, the profit margin continues to decline. On the other hand, real estate companies also see this fact clearly, and they will not hesitate to take it; More real estate enterprises have made adjustments in land acquisition strategies. Green city is a typical case.

Why green city is heavily invested in Ningbo

Compared with other head real estate enterprises, green city's land acquisition strategy is not the same. In the first batch of 57 plots of land in Hangzhou, Greentown did not take any land and retained its strength in Ningbo.

In the list of real estate sales amount in Ningbo in 2020, green city is firmly at the top with a sales amount of 31 billion yuan, which is far behind Vanke's 18.5 billion yuan and Zhongnan land 18 billion yuan.

In addition, green city took two pieces of land in Ningbo in the first quarter, totaling 6.38 billion yuan. This means that green city has invested more than 16 billion yuan in Ningbo in the first half of the year.

Compared with other real estate enterprises, green city has taken advantage of the opportunity of centralized land supply to make a precise choice between Hangzhou and Ningbo. In the first quarter, green city spent 13.59 billion yuan in Hangzhou to take nine land plots, especially all the plots transferred by Fuyang in the first quarter, accounting for 28.7% of the total homestead transfer fees in Hangzhou during the period, which is equivalent to 61% of the total land taken by green city in Hangzhou last year.

Ningbo is a green city which has been cultivated for two years. According to the public data, in 2020, the number of green city Ningbo land acquisition is relatively small, and the amount of land acquisition is about 42% in 2019, and it still needs to continue to replenish positions.

Some analysts believe that green city is between Hangzhou and Ningbo. It takes land in a centralized way, and provides underground funds in a centralized way. The efficiency of capital utilization has been enlarged. Therefore, it is very likely that green city will take a strong hand again when the second batch of plots are sold in Hangzhou.

Green city related people to the 21st century economic reporter pointed out that Ningbo team is very powerful, and will not lose money after calculation. This person also admitted that the current land development profit margin is indeed very low, certainly will not exceed 5%.

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