Behind The "Breathtaking" Listing Of Fresh E-Commerce: The Choice Of Scale And Profit

? ? ? “ Sorry, I'm a little late. Because I was on time in a conference call At 6:22 p.m. on June 29, Liang Changlin, founder and CEO of dingdong shopping, strode into the conference room where the media was located, with a little apology and relaxation.

? ? ? As a soldier, he founded dingdong to buy vegetables only four years ago. The words "Iron Army" were printed on the cuff of his T-shirt. Indeed, the story of fresh e-commerce is not easy for daily Youxian and dingdong to buy vegetables.

? ? ? On June 29, according to the latest prospectus of Ding Dong Mai Cai, Ding Dong Mai Cai reduced the original 14.4 million American Depository shares (ads) to 3.7 million, thus reducing the financing target of this IPO in the United States by 74%.

? ? ? This may be related to the previous listing of the daily fresh break. Just last Friday, the daily Youxian shares broke about 25% on the day of listing. After the opening of trading on Monday, the stock price of daily Youxian fell 8.49% to 8.84 USD / share, 32% lower than its offering price, and its market value fell to $2081 million.

? ? ? When the battle for fresh retail has officially spread from the community to the secondary market, the race for this track is far from over“ For us, the need to get money from the secondary market is not so urgent, because our cash flow is relatively healthy. In the last round, we raised $1.03 billion. This market is very flexible. If it is lower than the current value, it will be less financial. We are not trying to make money by going public. This is only a milestone, not the end point. " In an interview with the 21st century economic reporter, Liang Changlin said that he is now planning to the third tier cities because the domestic market is large enough.

? ? ? In fact, it's hard to judge which is the winner or loser in the current sticky situation. Looking back on the competition in the Internet industry, from the thousand regiment war, taxi fight, bike sharing battle to o2o takeout war, it may be only time that decides the victory or defeat. On the choice of scale and profit, Ding Dong obviously chose the former.

Increase industrial chain layout

? ? ? The daily excellent fresh listing is full of adventure, and the intraday decline was more than 30%. In an interview with the 21st century economic reporter, a person from the US stock investment industry believed that this situation was not conducive to the latecomers, and also caused great pressure“ If it goes up on the same day, it can be said that it is a well deserved first fresh stock. If it falls sharply, market investment institutions and investors will have doubts. It can be said that this is a gamble, and you can throw it away. "

? ? ? Different from daily excellent fresh food from Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, Ding Dong, who is on the same track, started to play the market in Beijing. However, the two cities are also mainly oriented to the first and second tier cities. They also use the "front-end warehouse" mode to reduce the loss of fresh goods and improve the distribution efficiency. The mode of online sales of fresh goods can realize the delivery within 1-3 kilometers and 1 hour.

? ? ? However, in the view of the industry, front-end warehouse in the efficient distribution at the same time, also raises the cost. Or because of this, we actively expand our diversified business. Xu Zheng, founder of daily Youxian, said that daily Youxian is no longer limited to self-employed fresh food e-commerce, but to build "China's largest digital platform for community retail" through multi format layout, so as to provide digital empowerment for supermarkets, restaurants and small shops in the community retail sector.

According to the prospectus, as of March 31, 2021, Youxian Daily has established 631 front-end positions in 16 cities in China, with a total of more than 31 million trading users. At the same time, the net loss is also increasing at the same time. In the past three years, the accumulated daily loss of Youxian was nearly 6.8 billion yuan.

What's turning around is that under the risk of the epidemic in 2020, fresh e-commerce has completed an excellent consumer education. Both the daily excellent fresh food and dingdong shopping have once narrowed the loss. According to iResearch, the market transaction scale of China's community retail e-commerce industry will reach 2488 billion yuan in 2020, and the online penetration rate will reach 20.9%. However, Wu Jincao, chief analyst of Soochow securities, believes that the loss of front position model manufacturers may continue for a period of time.

Liang Changlin did not agree with this“ In fact, the performance cost of community group purchase is similar to ours, about 15%. It seems that the cost of front-end warehouse is higher, but in fact, our quality management and service efficiency are higher, and the overall efficiency has been improved. Like the Shanghai market, we are already on the break even point. But we will control it. Should we make money or expand the scale? I think if we want to serve more people, we must first expand in scale. "

? ? ? According to him, Ding Dong will increase investment in AI technology and direct supply from production areas“ There are about 19 urban agglomerations and economic circles in China. We have entered five, and there are still larger economic circles that are not covered. In addition, we will carry out transformation in the upstream. For example, there are 4 pork cutting plants and more than 10 factories. We have also established a modern logistics and fresh food complex in Jiangsu Province. However, a lot of investment has been put into the transformation of the supply chain, and the results will not be achieved after the establishment of the supply chain this year. In the future, unmanned robots will replace more people's work. "

Fragmented market

? ? ? ? At present, there are many players in the fresh e-commerce market, and they are scattered. Not only are there a large number of competitors, but also local forces such as traditional vegetable market, chain supermarket and community fresh food shop can not be underestimated. There are also some emerging business forms such as home, store + instant delivery platform, community group buying, etc., in which there are also some Internet giants. Ali, meituan, Didi, pinduoduo, Jingdong and other giants have all entered the war.

? ? ? ? According to the daily Youxian prospectus, the company's annual revenue in 2019 will be 6.014 billion yuan, which will rise to 6.1304 billion yuan in 2020, an increase of only 2.1%. When asked about the breaking out of the daily excellent fresh food, some people in the e-commerce industry pointed out to the reporter of the 21st century economic report, "how can we tell a story without growth? This revenue growth rate is not as good as that of a mature company. "

In contrast, according to Ding Dong's prospectus, the annual net revenue in 2019 will be 3.881 billion yuan, which will rise to 11.335.8 billion yuan in 2021 through a 65.78% increase, greatly catching up with and surpassing the daily fresh food. In the first quarter of 2021, the net revenue of dingdong's buying vegetables is 3.802.1 billion yuan, 2.5 times that of daily excellent fresh food. The data may give investors some confidence, but the losses are also expanding.

? ? ? The existing competition structure is quite fierce and chaotic, and the big scuffle between various formats has also made fresh e-commerce the focus of attention this year. From the choice of capital, we can see that community group buying, which has become the most popular track of fresh e-commerce, is the asset light mode opposite to the front position mode.

In terms of transportation and storage costs, the most important factor is the establishment of supply chain, cold chain logistics and other infrastructure. According to the "2020 China fresh supply chain Market Research Report", the investment period of China's cold chain transportation is generally as long as two to three years, and the investment capital ranges from tens of millions to hundreds of millions of yuan.

? ? ? Liang Changlin believes that the future competition must be based on supply chain and management ability“ We can't just focus on the competition, or even what the competitors are doing. The foundation of all development is to really take root and do a good job in service. The panic in the secondary market is not about whether the company can make money, but the view of many people is relatively short-term. "

In his view, fresh e-commerce is not a pure Internet thing, but closely related to the ability to fulfill orders, supply chain capacity and supply capacity. The input of various costs leads to losses, which practitioners regard as "long-term doctrine" Compared with the daily excellent fresh front contraction strategy, dingdong still takes expanding the scale as the core idea. By the end of the first quarter of this year, the daily cash and cash equivalents of Youxian and dingdong were respectively 1.961 billion yuan and 4.414 billion yuan.

No matter what the current trend of stock prices, who can hold the winner for the moment, is not known.

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