Behind The Scenes Of Fund Performance In The First Half Of The Year: Who Can Confirm The Star Effect?

At the end of the first half of the year, the trend of A-share market is like a "roller coaster".

Market style changes dramatically, fund performance in the first half of the year also followed.

The performance list of active equity funds in the first half of the year was extremely competitive, which was settled on the last trading day. The top 3 were respectively 53.15% of Jinying national emerging industry, 52.17% of Baoying's advantageous industry, and 47.44% of Jinxin's robust strategy.

And a large number of star fund managers fell to the altar.

For investors, they usually invest in funds based on past performance. What are the reasons behind the success or failure of fund performance in the first half of this year, and what is the sustainability of performance?

Active fund wins

In the "roller coaster" market in the first half of the year, funds have experienced multiple tests. According to wind data statistics (Note: the same below), equity funds (including stock funds, partial stock hybrid funds, balanced hybrid funds, and flexible allocation funds) have achieved 7.31% returns. Among them, the average returns of partial stock hybrid funds and common stock funds are 7.62% and 7.62% respectively 9.65%。

Since the minimum equity position of partial stock hybrid fund is 60% and that of common stock fund is 80%, the average yield of common stock fund is 2% higher than that of partial stock mixed fund in the first half of the year, which shows that fund position has an impact on performance in the first half of the year. The higher the position, the greater the yield.

It is worth noting that in the first half of the year, the average return of passive index funds was 6.01%, while that of ordinary equity funds under active management was 9.65%, which was 3% higher than that of passive index funds.

This shows that in the turbulent market in the first half of the year, active management equity fund managers can still achieve higher than the average market performance. In the first half of the year, the average return of the common stock fund is 58.90% higher than that of the passive index fund, which indicates that the fund manager's stock selection and position control play an important role in the first half of the year.

Generally speaking, the passive index fund basically operates in full position, while the minimum equity position of the common equity fund is 80%. In addition, the passive index fund tracks a certain type of index, including all the stocks involved in the index, while the actively managed ordinary stock fund is selected by the fund manager.

In the mature market of the United States, because most investors are institutional investors, it is very difficult to beat the index. Mr. Buffett has a famous "ten-year bet". He believes that most hedge funds in the United States can't beat the S & P 500 index by the scale of ten years. In the end, hedge funds lagged far behind the S & P 500, and Mr. Buffett won.

The structure of investors in the A-share market is mainly retail investors. Although the proportion of institutional investors is increasing, it only accounts for about half. Therefore, there are many opportunities for wrong pricing in the A-share market.

In this regard, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, points out that if you make value investment in the A-share market, you can select good stocks and control your position. In fact, you can beat the index. In a shares, we can see that most of the active investment funds have outperformed the index, and a shares are still active funds, and their performance is better. Of course, there are also some poor performance of active funds, performance differentiation is more severe. But on the whole, in the mature market, the index runs better, and in the developing market, the active fund with good performance performs better.

Performance fund in the first half of the year

In the first half of the year, the top 3 fund performance was fiercely contested. Among the active equity funds, 53.15% of the gold eagle national emerging industry managed by Han Guangzhe was the champion, while 52.17% of the Baoying advantageous industry managed by Xiao Xiao and Chen Jinwei ranked second with a difference of 1 percentage point. In the third place was the sound strategy of Jinxin (47.44%) managed by Kong Xuebing. Its net value soared by 6.76% on the last day, ranking among the top three.

It is worth mentioning that the scale of top 3 fund performance in the first half of the year is relatively small, with the scale of 112 million yuan, 149 million yuan and 74 million yuan respectively at the end of the first quarter.

What we are most concerned about is why these small funds have sprung up in the first half of this year, and even beat many star funds to achieve good results?

In this regard, Han Guangzhe, manager of the champion fund in the first half of the year, said that in the first half of the year, he chose beta opportunities in some pro cyclical industries at the macro level, such as leading companies in copper, aluminum, chemicals and other related industries that may benefit from the rise in global commodity prices. These commodities are global pricing, while China's leading companies can obtain the beta opportunities brought about by rising commodity prices, But the price rise to the company's profit is relatively backward.

At the micro level, Han Guangzhe keeps track of the stocks he holds. He thinks that the business climate and basic orientation of some industries have not changed, but the potential rate of return is further highlighted by the stock price adjustment, and the profit growth rate matches the valuation well. He keeps a high attention on these companies.

As for the logic behind the success of the first half of the year, Dong Haibo, a gold and Zhang investment researcher under GESHANG, told reporters, "in the first half of the year, the market style changed quickly, the cycle style and growth style dominated successively. The funds with heavy positions in these styles and small scale can truly realize flexible allocation have comparative advantages."

According to Dong Haibo's analysis, for example, the scale of the top three funds in the first half of the year is not large. The Golden Eagle national emerging and BAOYING advantageous industries are slightly over 100 million yuan, and the steady strategy of Jinxin is even less than 100 million yuan. Therefore, we can calmly allocate investment targets with medium market value and high cost performance. From the perspective of their positions in heavy stocks in the first quarter, Jinying ethnic emerging favors electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals, and In pharmaceutical and biological industries, Baoying's advantageous industries favor electrical equipment, chemical industry, nonferrous metals, electronics, etc. seven out of the top 10 heavy positions of Jinxin's robust strategy are electronic industries, which are in line with the above inference.

The small scale has achieved excellent performance of a number of funds in the first half of the year, but how will such excellent performance foundations develop in the future?

Dong Haibo said that in the second half of the year, the scale of these excellent performance funds may be increased. If the scale is increased rapidly, the applicability of some of the original strategies may decline, which will put forward higher requirements on the allocation ability and management ideas of fund managers.

From the first half of the year as a whole, the trend of A-share market is like a "roller coaster", and the market style changes dramatically, which leads to the rise and fall of fund performance.

From the beginning of the year, Baotuan stocks represented by Baijiu rose sharply; After the Spring Festival, the price rise of bulk commodities has blown the most violent wind in the first half of the year, bringing about a sharp rise in cyclical stocks such as steel, basic chemical industry and coal; Since May, new energy has replaced Baijiu as the "strongest belief" of a shares, with biomedical and semiconductor technology sectors performing in turn.

The fund also led the rise from the Baotuan fund at the beginning of the year, and fell to the altar after the Spring Festival, while the resource fund was out of fashion. Since May, theme funds such as new energy, semiconductor and biomedicine have sprung up.

It is worth noting that in addition to a number of active equity funds, there are also a large number of QDII with excellent performance in the first half of the year.

As of the time of press release, the complete performance list of QDII funds in the first half of the year has not come out, but the highest return of QDII funds between 2021-1-1 and 2021-6-29 has exceeded 60%.

Since the beginning of the year (from 2021-1-1 to 2021-6-29), Huabao Standard & amp; P oil & amp; gas a US dollar income of 60.81%, GF Dow Jones American Petroleum a US dollar spot exchange of 54.74%, GF oil 53.14%.

The excellent performance of these QDII funds is mainly due to the impact of the rise in international commodities.

The performance differentiation of star fund managers is obvious

It's not just luck.

In the first half of the year, a large number of Star Funds failed to outperform the average rate of return, especially those with consumption theme style represented by liquor and household appliances.

A number of star fund managers with consumption as the main investment direction also performed poorly in the first half of this year.

In the first half of the year, the return of Jingshun Great Wall Dingyi, the representative fund of "top 100 billion" fund manager Liu Yanchun, was only 3.92%, while that of "king of consumption" Xiao Nan was - 2.31% in the consumer industry, and 3.78% in Penghua consumption by star fund manager Wang Zonghe.

In the first half of this year, the average return of equity funds was 7.31%, of which, the average returns of partial stock hybrid funds and ordinary stock funds were 7.62% and 9.65%, respectively. The above star fund basically did not reach the market average income.

As for the decline of these star funds in the first half of the year, Dong Haibo analyzed: "since this year, the style conversion is fast, there is no clear main line lasting for a long time, and the consumption style also surges up and falls back before and after the Spring Festival. Since then, the performance is average. For funds with large capital scale and more consumption, it is not a suitable market environment to play."

However, some star fund managers have made good achievements in the first half of the year. For example, Xingquan Herun, managed by Xie Zhiyu, a fund industry tycoon, is 7.63%, which is related to Xie Zhiyu's relatively balanced investment style. When the market style changes rapidly, its performance is relatively stable.

In addition, Guangfa Shuangqing upgrade a managed by Liu Gesong, the fund performance champion in 2019, earned 8.12% in the first half of the year. Its long-term focus on science and technology, photovoltaic, pharmaceutical and other sectors has risen rapidly since May.

In addition, a number of star fund managers have made outstanding achievements in the first half of the year, mainly in the new energy and biomedical industries.

For example, last year's fund performance champion Zhao Yi represented 24.08% of the fund's Agricultural Bank of China, Huili's new energy theme, China Europe medical and health a23.54% of "medicine queen" Glen, and 21.87% of new energy industry of Xinda Aoyin, represented by Feng Mingyuan.

Recently, the A-share market is in the turn of new energy, semiconductor, pharmaceutical stocks, etc., which has also led to the rise of fund performance.

So, after the fund performance in the first half of the year, for investors, should they choose to buy star fund managers or products managed by excellent fund managers in the first half of the year? This is a problem.

Dong Haibo suggested that for ordinary investors, they should choose according to their understanding of the market and fund managers. If they don't know much about the market, they should choose star fund managers with outstanding long-term performance to place their bets. Most of them have excellent management ability, only because the market environment does not match temporarily, so that the trend of net worth falls behind, but in time, Their management and research capabilities can still be realized. If they have their own judgment and are more confident, they can be screened from the performance fund managers with small management scale to find potential dark horses.

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