How Long Does It Take To Invest In Public Funds To Achieve A "Small Goal"?

Yi answer: Historically, if you want to double the number and hold it for 10 years, the probability of reaching the target can reach 79%.

When you buy a fund, what is your investment return target? 10%？ 30%？ Or the higher the better?

So do you know how long it normally takes to achieve your "small goals"?

Under the background of stable and good economic environment, the longer the time of holding active stock fund, the higher the certainty (probability) of achieving specific return target.

Let's use historical data to calculate the probability.

From the beginning of 2008 to the end of April 2021, the CSI 300 total income index has increased by 22%, but during this period, the market has experienced great ups and downs. Different time points to enter, buy different funds, the income is not the same.

We may as well adopt the rolling calculation method, including all purchase time points and all active equity funds into our statistics.

Taking April 1, 2021 as the boundary, there are 315 stock funds and partial stock mixed funds that have been established for 10 years. Assuming that any one of the funds is purchased and held for one year on any trading day, then we can get the yield under nearly 700000 cases.

If your revenue target is 30%, then you can count the percentage of all cases in which the yield exceeds 30%. This is the probability of realization we want to know.

The results show that if you want a total return of more than 10%, then hold for three years, you have a 72% chance of achieving the goal.

If you want to earn more than 30% of the total return, you should be prepared to hold for five years.

If you aim to double your earnings and hold for 10 years, you have a 79% chance of reaching your goal.

(data quoted from e-fund internet teaching base, wind, April 1, 2011 to March 31, 2021; Sample funds, including stock funds and partial mixed funds under wind secondary classification established before April 1, 2011; The past performance of the fund does not predict the future; We also calculated the probability of a single fund to achieve a specific investment goal. This paper shows the probability of doubling the return of the 30 funds with the highest cumulative yield from April 1, 2011 to March 31, 2021: as long as the fund can hold for 10 years, the probability of doubling the return of any fund is 100%; Even if they only hold it for five years, the probability of the return doubling of 13 funds is more than 70%.)

If you have a small goal now, do you have a clear idea of how long it will take to see the probability of these historical statistics?

(data quoted from e-fund internet teaching base, wind, April 1, 2011 to March 31, 2021; When calculating the rate of return, it does not include the income on April 1, 2011; Past performance does not predict the future.)

Knowledge patch:

How much is the price when buying and selling funds?

Subscription refers to the purchase of fund units during the fund raising period, commonly known as "purchase of new funds in issue", which is usually subscribed at the initial face value of 1 yuan / share.

Subscription is the act of applying to purchase fund units after the fund contract takes effect, commonly known as "buying old funds". For subscription or redemption, investors usually can't get the transaction price of the transaction immediately when applying for and redeeming the fund. The purchase and redemption price can only be calculated based on the net value of fund units calculated after the market closing on the day of application, That is to say, the transaction is completed according to the "unknown price" trading principle (except for the monetary fund which quotes according to the face value every day).

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