"Price Limit" Turns To Second-Hand Housing Multi City One Second Hand Linkage Stable Expectation

Since February 2021, with Shenzhen's first "second-hand house transaction reference price" as the wind vane, many cities follow up the policy, real estate regulation continues to deepen, and the pattern of all-round control becomes more obvious.

According to incomplete statistics, together with Wuxi City, which announced the second-hand house transaction reference price mechanism on July 26, up to now, seven cities have implemented the second-hand house reference price system in Shenzhen, Ningbo, Chengdu, Xi'an, Shanghai, Shaoxing and Wuxi.

In addition, Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of the E-House Research Institute, told reporters that at least nine cities across the country have focused on the regulation and control of second-hand housing prices, with various forms of management and control, including cracking down on the behavior of property owners to bid up house prices, establishing a second-hand housing price information release mechanism, and increasing price information verification.

From the "four restrictions" (price limit, purchase restriction, loan restriction and sales restriction) of new housing to the "price limit" of second-hand housing, it means that the regulatory policy begins to gnaw the hard bone of the second-hand housing market, which is "no grasp, no tools, and the main body is difficult to supervise".

A number of analysts told the 21st century economic report that the promotion of the reference price system for second-hand housing transactions has become the most important policy in the stock market this year. Considering the good effect of the early urban policies, it is not ruled out that the follow-up will be implemented in more hot cities, and the national house prices may fluctuate in a narrow range in the future.

Yihan think tank further pointed out that the real estate regulatory policies in the first half of 2021 are characterized by parallel long-term and long-term, all-round and systematic trend, that is, the long-term mechanism of real estate market regulation is constantly implemented, the short-term control tools are gradually systematized, and the overall development is toward all-round management and control.

Heat control in two ways

"New house price limit often leads to a second-hand housing prices hanging upside down in hot cities." Yang Kan, an analyst at Ping An Securities, said that unlike the government can restrict the selling price of new houses in the process of obtaining pre-sale certificates or land transfer, the ownership of second-hand houses lies in the residents, so it is impossible to limit the listing and transaction prices of second-hand houses through the above policies.

The difference between the two led to the "earn as you buy" stimulus, a large number of rigid demand, improved demand released ahead of time, superimposed investment demand into the market, further boosting the popularity of the new housing market. Since this year, Xi'an, Hangzhou and other hot cities are reproducing the phenomenon of "ten thousand people wagging numbers" in new houses.

And it's a vicious circle. In the hot new housing market, families who are unable to meet the demand for housing are forced to enter the second-hand housing market, which further pushes up the price of second-hand housing.

"If you don't control the second-hand house, it's very difficult to control the price of the new house." Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong provincial housing policy research center, told reporters that the first and second-hand house prices have also contributed to innovation and speculation.

Two months before the introduction of the reference price of second-hand housing transactions in Shenzhen, there were more community owners who published collective price increase comments through wechat groups, maliciously hyped second-hand house prices, and were interviewed by the competent authorities and suspended the online signing procedures for second-hand houses in the community.

"Considering that it is difficult to control the popularity of the second-hand housing market by traditional means such as new house price limit, the second-hand housing market needs to be standardized urgently." Yang Kan said that after the implementation of the second-hand house transaction reference price mechanism, Shenzhen's second-hand housing transactions fell sharply, and the heat of the property market stabilized.

In February this year, Shenzhen's second-hand housing listing index fell 74% month on month compared with January. Despite the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, the index of second-hand housing listing volume remained at a very low level from the performance of the following months.

Second hand residential transactions also fell significantly, with only 237000 square meters in June, significantly lower than the monthly average of 683000 square meters last year, a year-on-year decrease of 73.8%.

Statistics from the E-House research institute show that the transaction price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen reached a record high of 72436 yuan / m2 in January this year. With the promotion of the second-hand housing transaction reference price system, in June, its price was 61500 yuan / square meter, and the transaction price of second-hand housing decreased by 15%.

Under the linkage of the first and second-hand, after the implementation of the second-hand house transaction reference price mechanism, the rhythm of market decline has also been transmitted to the new housing market.

As Shenzhen's second-hand housing market is no longer hot, and policies such as superimposed integral lottery are introduced to curb the behavior of speculators, residents' purchase tends to be rational, and the popularity of new houses is gradually declining. According to the statistics of Ping An Securities, Shenzhen has changed the previous situation of low bid winning rate and difficulty in obtaining one house. At present, the number of new shares sold is less than 100%. For example, in the fourth quarter of Hengyi, the number of subscribers in Washington is insufficient, and the winning bid rate is 154%.

There may be more cities to limit prices in the future

After Shenzhen took the lead in controlling the price of second-hand housing, Ningbo, Chengdu, Xi'an, Shanghai, Shaoxing and Wuxi followed suit.

Policy fundamentals are focused on "stable expectations".

From the policy content, on the one hand, the official release of all or key residential area second-hand housing reference prices, on the other hand, require relevant institutions to take it as a reference basis, including real estate brokerage agencies should be off the shelf, high price housing, banks will use it as the basis for commercial loans.

Taking Shenzhen as an example, after the introduction of the reference price mechanism for second-hand housing, the listing prices of all housing resources on the app and official website of real estate brokerage agencies are changed to reference prices, instead of being arbitrarily raised by the owners. The information of transaction price is not transparent, which reduces the self strengthening of the expectation of rising house prices, effectively alleviates the worries of house buyers about the rise of house prices, and suppresses the atmosphere of real estate speculation.

Zhuge housing data research center points out that publishing the reference price of residential quarters can quickly change the market expectations of both buyers and sellers. When the guiding price is lower than the quoted price, the seller may choose to take back the house. When the price of the selected house is higher than the reference price, the buyer will delay the time of entering the market. Therefore, the market volume price will decline immediately.

"The transaction price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen has shrunk by 15%, which is the number that many home buyers are paying close attention to, because we will all ask whether it has fallen or how much it has fallen." Yan Yuejin said. As for Wuxi, the latest follow-up mechanism, Yan Yuejin believes that the adjustment of market expectations, the administrative control of house prices and the change of supply-demand relationship of second-hand housing will promote the cooling of the second-hand housing market.

Li Yujia also said that under the release mechanism of the reference price for second-hand housing transactions, the seller's willingness to list is significantly weakened, and they are not willing to list or are not willing to list at the reference price, which leads to transaction obstruction. In addition, the buyer's expectation is no longer positive, with a strong wait-and-see mood.

It is worth noting that there is a bright spot in the second-hand house transaction reference price mechanism, that is, banks will use it as the basis for lending. If the transaction price is higher than the reference price, commercial banks will only lend according to the reference price, and the gap must be solved by the buyers themselves, which will increase the down payment in disguise, which is to restrain the popularity of the second-hand housing market from the demand side.

Many analysts believe that the follow-up second-hand house transaction reference price system may be implemented in more hot cities, especially in the cities where the price of housing has increased a lot and the second-hand housing market is still hot.

At the same time, Yihan think tank pointed out that the participation of banks plays an important role in the policy effect of "guiding price of second-hand housing"“ If the bank does not lend according to the guidance price, the guiding price will play a more important role in calming the market sentiment, and has less impact on the market transaction price. "

Yihan think tank emphasizes that the transfer of land to new houses and then to second-hand houses is an interrelated and interactive whole. In order to control the house price, only the regulation and control of some links will easily lead to the overall imbalance. Therefore, the overall regulation and control should be carried out from the overall situation.

Undoubtedly, since the middle of 2020, from "three red lines" to "loan concentration management" to "centralized land supply", from "real estate linkage" to "new house price control" to "second-hand house transaction reference price", real estate regulatory policies have increasingly emphasized systematization and omni-directional, and the goal of "stabilizing expectations" runs through the whole process.

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