From Concept Hype To Mass Production Acceleration: The Rise Of 100 Billion Photovoltaic Heterojunction Industry

? ? ? Companies with a market value of 100 billion yuan are not uncommon in the A-share photovoltaic industry, but the emergence of new 100 billion members can always give the industry a boost.

? ? ? Shortly after the opening of trading on July 30, Trina Solar's share price rose for a time, reaching 48.60 yuan / share, which temporarily promoted the company's market value into a "100 billion market value club".

Although it has not yet stabilized, the figure of the sixth A-share PV Company with a market value of 100 billion yuan is emerging: as of the close of the day, the market value of Trina Solar, Jingao technology and Chint electric appliance is only one foot short of 100 billion yuan.

Who is the next company with a market value of 100 billion has become a hot topic in the photovoltaic industry again.

At present, from silicon materials, silicon wafers, modules, to inverter, adhesive film, the main links of the photovoltaic industry chain have been born with a market value of 100 billion companies.

But interestingly, these companies are not the "most expensive" A-share photovoltaic companies. A photovoltaic equipment manufacturer, with a price of more than 600 yuan per share, has become the "ceiling" of the current share price of the photovoltaic company.

Moreover, this "ceiling" may continue to move up.

"Since this year, the data of heterojunction has been steadily promoted, the conversion efficiency of battery has been continuously improved, and the cost has been falling." A senior analyst in the new energy industry told the 21st century economic report that the stock prices of many heterojunction concept stocks have reached new highs this year.

In fact, behind the concept of hot speculation, the domestic heterojunction industry is indeed accelerating the pace of mass production. Therefore, a bold idea germinated in the minds of some investors. Can heterojunction equipment enterprises also have a market value of 100 billion?

A share "most expensive" photovoltaic stock

There is such a photovoltaic company, its share price is second only to Guizhou Maotai and Shitou technology, higher than Ningde times and Mindray medical.

This photovoltaic company, which is the third "expensive" in a share, is not Longji shares or sunshine power supply, but Maiwei shares.

In November 2018, Maiwei shares were listed on the gem with an initial price of 56.68 yuan per share. At that time, the "little overlord" in the photovoltaic subdivision field did not attract enough attention from the capital market: it occupied the main market share of photovoltaic screen printing complete sets of equipment, but its revenue scale in the first year of listing was less than 800 million yuan.

Two years later, Maiwei's performance scale continued to grow, and its revenue in 2020 had reached 2.285 billion yuan, 2.9 times that of 2018. What can grow even faster is its share price. As of July 30, the closing price of Maiwei shares was 652.34 yuan / share, and the price after resumption of rights was 17.5 times of the initial listing price, with a market value of 67.1 billion yuan.

More than 650 yuan of stock price, let a lot of investors concerned about photovoltaic plate sigh, "can't afford to buy." The 21st century economic report reporter found that Maiwei shares just two months ago implemented a 10 to 8 distribution of dividends of 15 yuan (including tax). If there is no dividend, its latest share price will be as high as 1200 yuan, second only to 1678.99 yuan in Guizhou Maotai.

21st century economic reporter noticed that although the dynamic P / E ratio of the company has reached 147 times, the enthusiasm of secondary market funds for it has not faded. In July alone, Maiwei's share price rose by more than 47%.

Another heterojunction equipment company, Jinchen Co., has set a record share price. After recording four trading limits in nearly nine trading days, the company's share price has broken through 100, and the price earnings ratio is also as high as 124 times.

In the domestic photovoltaic industry chain, equipment companies are far less well-known than downstream manufacturing companies. But such as Maiwei shares, Jinchen shares, but in the recent secondary market to earn enough eyeballs.

The concept of "heterojunction" is undoubtedly the biggest driver behind it.

At the SNEC exhibition in June this year, Liu Hanyuan, chairman of the board of directors of Tongwei group, said in an interview with the 21st century economic news reporter that "TOPCON and heterojunction may become the next generation of mainstream battery technology, but it is still uncertain who will be the leading role in the next three or five years. In this regard, Tongwei will keep up with the pace of Technology Research on heterojunction and TOPCON, and keep pace with the industry in terms of the scale of GW business scale. "

Liu Hanyuan was too modest. More than a month later, Tongwei's Chengdu Jintang production base put up a banner: "the first battery of the company's 1GW heterojunction project is offline.".

From the arrival of the first device in May to the first battery offline in mid July, the world's largest heterojunction mass production project is approaching the gate of heterojunction commercialization at a speed faster than expected by the outside world. It is worth mentioning that this has also become a trigger for the recent hype of heterojunction concept.

21st century economic reporter noted that among the 1GW heterojunction project of Tongwei Jintang, the domestic mainstream heterojunction equipment manufacturers "compete with each other" for the first time: Maiwei shares, Junshi energy, ideal wanlihui and other enterprises jointly provide the core equipment PECVD.

In fact, in this year's hype on the concept of "heterojunction", the stock price increases of companies from equipment and materials are significantly higher than those of battery technology R & D enterprises. Maiwei shares and Jinchen shares have increased by 73.85% and 122.81% respectively since this year, while those of Tongwei, Dongfang Risheng and Shanmei international have increased by 13.12%, - 29.55%, - 12.80% respectively in the same period.

In the eyes of the secondary market, heterojunction commercialization, equipment enterprises take the lead.

There is an endless stream of cross-border players

On July 29, in a hotel in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, Zhou Jian, chairman of Maiwei Co., Ltd., sat down at the signing table and reached a 480 million yuan sales agreement with diamond glass for the production equipment of heterojunction project.

The diamond glass on the other side of the signboard is known as the new player in the heterojunction field. On the same day, the company announced the launch of 1.2gw heterojunction photovoltaic project with a total investment of 832 million yuan.

According to Yan Chunlai, general manager of Jingang glass, the investment and construction of this project will help the company become the world's first cutting edge in the industry with a half piece front-end process, a large size of 210, the largest mass production scale in the world, and the final module power of more than 700W.

It is worth mentioning that this new player also came from across the border. On the introduction of its official website, the reporter of 21st century economic report saw an introduction: "the company is a national key high-tech enterprise focusing on the R & D, design and production of all kinds of high-tech special glass and systems. Its products cover building fire-proof doors and windows, fire-proof curtain walls, fire-proof partition, security glass system, BIPV, architectural glass, glass, glass, glass, glass, glass, glass, glass, glass, etc Rail transit and other fields.

In other words, the connection between diamond glass and photovoltaic industry chain was only BIPV.

Obviously, this Guangzhou enterprise with special glass as its main business is not satisfied with staying in the terminal application field of photovoltaic industry chain. During his trip to Suzhou in July, he also visited GCL group, another leading photovoltaic enterprise. "The two sides conducted in-depth discussions on topics that fit each other, such as green energy, the development situation of n-type silicon wafer market, and the investment and financing of photovoltaic industry," said the press release of diamond glass

According to the research report recently released by Soochow securities, "the large-scale outbreak of hjt (i.e. heterojunction) in 2021 mainly depends on the new entrants of photovoltaic industry to expand production."

However, diamond glass is not the first crossover player this year.

Two months ago, a wind power "catfish" came in the battle for photovoltaic cell upgrading. On May 12, Mingyang intelligent announced that it plans to invest 3 billion yuan in the construction of 5GW photovoltaic high efficiency battery and 5GW photovoltaic high efficiency module project. In this investment announcement, Mingyang intelligence clearly stated that it invested in heterojunction batteries.

Mingyang intelligent choice heterojunction technology, justifiable. In the early years, Zhang Chuanwei, chairman of the company, personally led the establishment of a photovoltaic cell and module R & D company, focusing on CdTe thin film battery technology. According to industry information, heterojunction cell is an n-type cell, which is a photovoltaic cell made of crystalline silicon and amorphous silicon film. Therefore, the heterojunction technology continues the application of thin film materials to a certain extent. For Mingyang intelligent, which has never been involved in the research and development of crystalline silicon battery technology before, it can continue the previous research and development accumulation in the field of thin film battery.

Earlier than Mingyang intelligent, the crossover can be traced back to Shanmei international. In 2020, the old coal enterprise will lay out the photovoltaic manufacturing field as its transformation direction. In August last year, the company announced the establishment of a joint venture with several companies and institutions to be used as the implementation subject of 10GW efficient heterojunction project.

Up to the first quarter of this year, the company said in response to investor consultation that "the company's heterojunction photovoltaic project is progressing orderly as planned."

The market value of 100 billion yuan is approaching

In the past 30 years, the dawn of large-scale industrialization of heterojunction has become more and more bright.

Throughout the whole process of technology research, heterojunction battery has appeared as early as 1990. And with the expiration of 25 years of patent protection, the technology finally ushered in large-scale R & D investment and promotion in 2015“ The technology cycle of photovoltaic cells can be divided into four stages: germination, expansion, explosion and iteration. Heterojunction technology has gone through the embryonic stage and is on the eve of large-scale production expansion. " A photovoltaic cell company told the 21st century economic reporter.

The continuous improvement of conversion efficiency provides support for heterojunction technology to replace the current perc technology. According to the statistics of the 21st century economic reporter, in the past two months, heterojunction technology R & D enterprises have successively received good news about the improvement of conversion efficiency: on June 8, Anhui Huasheng new energy heterojunction battery mass production batch average efficiency reached 24.71%, and the highest single chip efficiency was 25.06%; On July 8, the conversion efficiency of the M6 heterojunction battery developed by the company and Maiwei reached a record of 25.26%.

Reviewing the process of perc technology replacing BSF technology, efficiency improvement and cost reduction are two key factors. At present, heterojunction has the foundation to replace perc in efficiency.

However, it is the cost of production to press the start button for the real explosion of heterojunction technology.

"At present, the market is mainly worried about the cost of hjt. We think that 2021 is the first year when hjt's cost will level with perc at the component end. From 2022, hjt will lower the cost of battery side than perc." Soochow securities is expected.

It is generally believed that the three key steps to reduce the cost of heterojunction technology are wafer slicing, silver paste localization and equipment localization. Among them, the localization of silver paste and equipment is an important trigger point of heterojunction industrialization.

Recently, according to the official wechat official account of Suzhou gutechnetium, in July this year, the domestic low-temperature silver paste developed by Fujian Juneng Power Co., Ltd. and Suzhou Jingyin New Material Technology Co., Ltd., a low-temperature silver paste manufacturer, was successfully introduced into the large-scale mass production of hjt heterojunction solar cells. This news ignites A-share heterojunction plate again.

But what the market expects more is the localization of equipment.

Zheshang securities estimates that from 2020 to 2025, the market size of heterojunction equipment will grow at a compound annual rate of 80%. By 2025, the equipment market space is expected to reach 41.2 billion yuan.

"If the net profit keeps 20% and 25 times PE is given, the reasonable total market value of heterojunction equipment industry is estimated to be 200 billion yuan, and the leading market share of the industry is more than 50%, which is expected to realize the market value of 100 billion yuan." According to the agency.

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