"Tearing" Indian Intelligent Terminal Market

After the blockade measures in the second quarter and a half, the Indian market resumed its daily life rhythm at the end of June. A group of mobile phone industry chain people from China began to wait and see whether and how to return to the local area.

But in retrospect, it is still frightening“ At a time when the epidemic situation was very serious in the second quarter, the semi blockade measures had been extended and there was no sign of unsealing, we were really flustered and thought that this year would be suspended. " An Indian head of a mobile phone company told 21st century business reporter that at that time, its local management team in India was very confident.

The subsequent market reaction confirmed this prediction“ After unsealing, the mobile phone market rebounded quickly, and immediately the products were not enough to sell. " The celebrity continued.

On a year-on-year basis, in the second quarter of 2020, India also experienced a complete closure measure, but this year's blockade requirements are not as strict as last year's. But the rapid rebound in consumption after the unsealing is similar. This phenomenon has been rated as "very flexible" by analysts, which is also the reason why the whole mobile phone industry chain has been paying high attention to the Indian market.

However, while the market dividend continues to release, objectively speaking, the Indian market is still a place of investment with certain risks. According to the reporter of 21st century economic report, since this year, Indian officials have been withholding Chinese brands in terms of new product certification and personnel visa, thus causing certain interference to the deployment rhythm of local brand manufacturers.

The superposition of structural core shortage challenges shows that the development in India still needs rapid adjustment of strategic deployment, and actively cooperate with new mobile phone main chip suppliers to embrace the market. For supply chain manufacturers, it is also a solution worthy of careful consideration to transfer or add new deployment to Vietnam.

A fast rebound Market

In the second quarter, although there are more stringent measures in the blockade, but did not affect the local enthusiasm for mobile phones in India.

"When our colleagues in India visited, we found that although the front door of mobile phone sales stores is closed under the influence of policies, the store owners often open the back door for transactions. Even if there are no promoters, consumers can complete the transaction by directly ordering the model they want." Said the person.

In this way, to a certain extent, India's smartphone sales market achieved a significant growth compared with the same period in the second quarter of this year.

According to canalys statistics, in the second quarter of 2021, India's smartphone market shipment increased by 87% year-on-year. Even from a historical point of view, the total shipment in this quarter is similar to that in the second quarter of 2018 and 2019, which are not affected by the epidemic.

Counterpoint research pointed out that India's smartphone market had the highest ever shipment volume in the first half of 2021. The market fell 14% month on month as consumer sentiment declined during the second wave of new crown pneumonia. However, due to the flexibility of the smartphone market, the decline was less than expected.

Behind the sharp growth of the market chassis, on the one hand, India took a thorough measure to close the country last year, which led to the real zero sales performance in some months; But on the other hand, it also means that smartphone manufacturers have received good market feedback during this period.

Canalys statistics show that in the second quarter of this year, the top five manufacturers of intelligent machine shipment, except vivo, achieved a year-on-year growth rate of more than 70%, and realme achieved a growth rate of 181%.

Prachir Singh, senior analyst at counterpoint, said smartphone shipments were low from April to may due to the blockade, but saw pent up demand in June as restrictions were lifted and stores reopened. Offline centric brands were more affected in April and may, as consumers preferred online shopping channels. Brands like Xiaomi and realme can use their better online channels to maintain high sales.

"Many cases have shown that smartphones have become a necessity for local people in India, as evidenced by the rapid release of demand in June." Prachir.

Sanyam chaurasia, an analyst at canalys, also points out that "for Smartphone manufacturers, this is a wake-up call and shows the importance of equal support for online and offline channels."

Of course, the epidemic situation does not have no impact on the local consumption capacity, which is more reflected in the different consumption structure.

"We found that the impact of the epidemic on the local market is mainly due to the mobile phones at some prices, but our low-end models are not enough to sell and will face the problem of out of stock." The above-mentioned mobile phone company told the 21st century economic reporter that the comprehensive data from research institutions show that the epidemic will not eliminate the consumption demand for mobile phones, but will lead to the loss of consumption capacity in the middle price range“ For example, the sales volume of products above a certain high-end price segment is actually increasing; Sales of low-end machines are also increasing; On the contrary, it is the middle price segment level, which has been hit the most. It proves that the polarization in the consumption process of the local market is quite serious. "

External challenges continue

All these signs show that as the world's second largest smartphone consumer market, India's smartphone dividend is still rapidly releasing. This has become an element of pulling the whole mobile phone supply chain to the local "pain and happiness".

A person from the mobile phone industry chain told the 21st century economic reporter that since this year, Indian authorities have increased the restrictions on Chinese brands.

According to reports, there are two aspects of certification that affect the local sales of electronic products: one is the customs clearance certification of components and the other is the sales certification of new products. If the former certification is not obtained, the components cannot enter the factory through customs; Without the latter, even if the product has been produced, it cannot be labeled for sale in India.

"The purpose of card certification is essentially to promote the localization of electronic products in India, which has been implemented in India for many years." According to the people in the industry chain mentioned above, most of the products of the main cards are IOT categories, which will cause the launch time of new products to be delayed for many months.

At the same time, there are also restrictions on personnel, mainly in the aspect of work visa“ Visa control is relatively strict, and the rate of refusing to sign is relatively high, and some people will be released occasionally. The aim is also to encourage local employment. " However, it should be noted that without Chinese personnel to raise funds and manage them, such measures may not necessarily bring much employment opportunities to the local people.

In this context, Vietnam has become a relatively safe plant. According to the 21st century economic report, due to the bilateral trade agreement between Vietnam and India, India will not block goods or components from Vietnam at present.

"In this case, I set up a factory in Vietnam. On the one hand, I can transport goods to India, on the other hand, I can supply goods to Southeast Asia, which is a safer way." In contrast, India's labor costs and quality, including policy risks and investment business environment, are not as good as Vietnam's, so India has become a high-profile investment destination.

In addition, the more important problem is the lack of core, which still plagues the supply and deployment of intelligent machines.

The aforementioned mobile phone manufacturers told the 21st century economic report that, given the higher profit margin of 5g mobile phone chips, chip manufacturers prefer to give priority to the supply of relatively high-end 5g chip products. So far, 4G mobile phone chips are still in short supply, and 5g chips on the lower end are also in short supply.

"This means that the company's strategy needs to be adjusted along with the market situation. Although India's current 5g infrastructure has not yet been fully deployed, we can make up for consumers' demand for mobile phones by launching cost-effective 5g mobile phones." The people mentioned above said frankly.

According to the 21st century economic report, in addition to the two major suppliers of 5g SOC chips, Qualcomm and MediaTek, Ziguang zhanrui has also actively launched corresponding products in the past two years to meet market demand, which has become a better solution for mobile phone manufacturers to cope with the current environment.

On the whole, although there are still great development challenges in India's local environment, it is undeniable that Chinese mobile phone manufacturers have actively occupied the local extremely high market space in recent years. The test of manufacturers will be more about how to actively and flexibly open up more abundant channels and supply chains, and participate in competition more fully.

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