Carbon Neutral: Wind Power Industry "Waiting For Wind"

The wind power industry has been waiting for a proof from the capital market to reiterate the importance of the industry in the energy structure transformation under the background of "carbon peak, carbon neutral".

Indeed, despite being called a new energy "Gemini" together with photovoltaic, the wind power sector has been neglected by the capital market for a long time in the past. Even if, when analysts in the second quarter of last year "arm in arm" attention to A-share new energy plate, wind power plate in this round of market did not set off much storm.

But in the end, Feng Shui took turns. Unknowingly, the kinetic energy accumulated since July broke out completely in recent days. The 21st century economic reporter noted that in the last two trading days, the wind power index (884036. WI) ranked first and second in the concept sector, with a cumulative increase of nearly 12%. As of the end of September 3, 20 concept stocks were up and 6 wind power companies were up. Among them, Jinfeng Technology (002202. SZ), which has the highest market value, has been up and down for two consecutive days, with a total market value of more than 70 billion yuan.

In fact, in recent years, the capital market has paid more attention to the wind power sector, and institutional research reports have been frequent. Some analysts even make no secret of the position that the current A-share wind power sector valuation is low and cost-effective.

Behind the fire, the domestic wind power industry in the first half of this year also handed over the performance of Puxi.

In the last year of subsidy, does the wind power sector really usher in the capital boom it has been waiting for for years?

Retail investors with hindsight, capital with keen sense of smell

Liu Yang (pseudonym) has held A-share shares of Jinfeng technology for more than half a year. On the afternoon of September 1, he couldn't help but choose to clear the warehouse. But this clear, let him fast "clap broken thigh".

"Almost 13 yuan from March to buy, and then buy a few times, the cost of pulling to more than 12 yuan." Liu Yang told the 21st century economic reporter that the reason for the clearance is not the loss of money, but the feeling that "you can't make any money" and "your temper has been worn out.".

The 21st century economic reporter noticed that during this period of time when Liu Yang held a stake in Jinfeng technology, the stock trend of this wind power leader was not big ups and downs, but it was not warm or hot. From the beginning of March to the end of August, the cumulative decline of Jinfeng technology A shares was only 3.21%.

However, the stock market is so dramatic. When Liu Yang cleared a shares of Jinfeng technology, his stock friends bought them.

"My friend told me that I felt that the stock market was coming soon, but that day (September 1) the A-share market as a whole was changing its style, and the new energy sector fluctuated violently." Liu Yang is very envious of the stock friend, met him to wait for more than half a year opportunity.

In fact, there are many retail investors like Liu Yang who have fallen on the eve of dawn. In a stock exchange platform, the 21st century economic reporter saw that there was an investor message: "I took all the gold wind for a month, and I couldn't help running away."“ I sold hundreds of shares yesterday and lost money. " More investors in the face of Goldwind technology's strong stock price performance in recent two days, straight asked: "what is the basis of the (stock price) surge?"

Retail investors know later, but some of the main funds have a keen sense of smell.

Take Goldwind technology as an example. In the first quarter of this year, three new faces appeared among the company's top ten shareholders - China Securities Finance Co., Ltd., Huaxia Life Insurance Co., Ltd. (own funds), Ping An Bank Boshi growth pilot flexible allocation hybrid securities investment fund, respectively holding 0.71%, 0.47% and 0.42% of the shares of Goldwind technology.

In the second quarter, Huaxia life insurance withdrew from the list of the top ten shareholders, and China Securities Finance Co., Ltd. continued to hold, while Ping An Bank Boshi growth pilot investment fund increased its holding by 4.3455 million shares, increasing its shareholding ratio to 0.52%. Among them, taking the closing price on September 3 as a reference, the stock holding value of Ping An Bank Boshi growth pilot investment fund is about 378 million yuan.

Another sign shows that the A-share wind power sector has shown a stable upward trend since July this year.

At present, the wind power sector as a whole or faces the influence of "quantity" and "profit"- Xinhua News Agency

According to the statistics of 21st century economic report, the top ten A-share wind power companies have accumulated their share price increases in the last 60 trading days. Specifically, Yunda shares (300772. SZ), which had the most fierce rise, rose 170.39% year-on-year and 160.78% on the 60th day; The stock price of new qianglian (300850. SZ) is up 85.57% year-on-year and 105.72% on the 60th day, covering the gap of stock price decline since this year.

"Compared with photovoltaic, the overall attention of the wind power sector in the first half of this year is relatively low." According to the analysis of Changjiang Securities, the current wind power sector as a whole is faced with both "volume" and "profit" effects: from the "quantity" point of view, under the background of onshore wind power rush installation in 2020, the annual installed capacity exceeds 70gw, which makes the market more cautious in the judgment of wind power installation scale this year and next year; From the "profit" point of view, since the beginning of 2020, the bidding price of wind power has entered the downward channel. At present, the mainstream bidding price has fallen below 2500 yuan / kW. There are differences on the profitability of the follow-up wind turbines. In addition, the price of raw materials in the upstream reaches has been increased, thus the apparent profit level of the industry has been squeezed to a certain extent.

However, the agency further analyzed that at the current time point (the research report was published on August 19), the wind power sector has a certain margin improvement space in terms of "quantity" and "profit". From the "quantity" point of view, the scale of offshore wind power rush load superposition in the first half of the year is abundant, providing support for the industry's installation in the next year; From the "profit" point of view, although the apparent profit of the whole machine and parts is under pressure, the actual profit level of the whole industry is expected to be higher than expected under the improvement of fan large-scale dilution cost reduction and efficiency increase of parts enterprises.

The hidden worry under the general performance is waiting to be reshaped

At the morning meeting of the institutions on September 3, the new team of Guosheng securities power called out its latest views on the wind power sector: "with the growth of certainty, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of wind power valuation repair."

From the performance of the first half of the year, the domestic wind power industry as a whole showed a rapid growth trend.

According to the statistics of 21st century economic reporter, in the first half of this year, 23 A-share wind power companies realized a total of 93.647 billion yuan of operating income, and the total net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company totaled 11.998 billion yuan. Among them, 19 companies achieved positive growth in operating revenue in the first half of the year, while only 3 companies had a year-on-year decline in net profit in the first half of the year. In addition, the operating income of electric wind power (688660. SH) increased by more than 122% during the reporting period, and the net profits of 8 companies, including Sinoma Technology (002080. SZ), Funeng Co., Ltd. (600483. SH), electric wind power, Zhongmin energy (600163. SH), Jiaze Xinneng (601619. SH), Yunda shares, Yinxing energy (000862. SZ), Zhenjiang shares (603507. SH), achieved double growth.

Although the performance differences of wind power companies are mainly caused by the industrial chain links, different businesses and product structures of different enterprises, it is an indisputable fact that the overall performance of A-share wind power companies is generally satisfactory.

However, there are also worries under the joy. On the one hand, in a single quarter, the growth rate of many wind power enterprises in the second quarter was less than that in the first quarter. On the other hand, the gross profit margin of half of wind power enterprises' main products has an obvious downward trend.

In the whole machine segment, the gross profit margin of Mingyang intelligent (601615. SH) was 21.16%, 0.58 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. In the tower sector, the gross profit rates of Tianshun wind energy (002531. SZ), Daikin heavy industry (002487. SZ) and Taisheng wind energy (300129. SZ) decreased year on year; In the bearing sector, the gross profit rates of new Lianqiang, Tongyu heavy industry (300185. SZ) and Riyue (603218. SH) decreased year on year. According to the statistics of 21st century economic reporter, the gross profit rate of 12 wind power enterprises in the first half of the year decreased year on year, with an average decline of about 4.13 percentage points.

"There are many factors that affect the performance of wind power enterprises in the first half of this year, including the downward trend of overall bid winning price and the rise of raw material price. But at the same time, wind power enterprises themselves reduce costs and increase efficiency very fast. " A new energy analyst told 21st century economics reporter.

According to the latest research report issued by the research department of CICC, the industrialization of large-scale wind turbines on land in China is accelerating, which has brought about a step-by-step decline in the cost of wind turbines and power generation. The agency said that at present, especially the large-scale unit will promote the fan cost reduction“ As the raw materials of wind turbine components constitute the main cost, the pricing method of raw materials is mostly based on weight. When the unit is large, the reduction of unit power weight of wind turbine will save the cost of parts procurement and promote the cost reduction of wind turbine. "

According to the agency's calculation, taking the bidding price of 2.0MW wind turbine at 3400 yuan / kW tax inclusive and 15% gross profit margin as the benchmark, with the cost saving brought by the increasing power of single machine, and considering that the premium of large-scale parts is generally higher than that of small-sized parts, it is estimated that after the large-scale production, the 4.0mw, 5.0mw and 6.0mw wind turbines are expected to reach 2660 yuan / kW, 2330 yuan / kW, 2330 yuan / kW, respectively The gross profit rate of 15% will be achieved under the bidding price of 2100 yuan / kW.

Societe Generale Securities also agrees that the large-scale unit is one of the most important trends in the wind power industry in recent years; Second, the large-scale units are beneficial to improve the wind energy utilization efficiency in the middle and eastern regions with low and medium wind speed; Third, to reduce the cost of construction and installation

In the long run, with the support of multiple policies and industry planning, the domestic wind power industry is expected to maintain an annual installed capacity increase of 60GW during the "14th five year plan" period.

In fact, wind power and photovoltaic are both important branches of new energy. However, its main rising market in the capital market is far less than the concept of new energy such as photovoltaic and lithium battery every year. In the long run, undervaluation has become a label for the wind power sector. The 21st century economic reporter noticed that even if the stock price of Goldwind technology rose to 17.15 yuan / share on September 3, and its market value exceeded 70 billion yuan, its latest dynamic P / E ratio was only 20.5 times.

With the improvement of the market's annual average forecast data of new installed capacity during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the valuation of wind power sector is expected to be reshaped.

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