The Rise Of "Mesozoic" Power In The Fund Industry: 1264 "New" Fund Managers Who Are "Novice Good Luck"?

Some people win the lottery for the first time; Some people win the first time they play cards; Some people make a lot of money when they first speculate in real estate; Some people are better than old hands in the first stock market

This phenomenon is called "beginner luck" effect, referred to as "rookie luck".

Let the old foundation people can not imagine is that this year the fund industry a large area of "rookie good luck" phenomenon.

According to a group of data, as of September 30, the top 20 active equity funds in this year's income belong to different camps:

"New generation" fund managers (fund managers with less than 3 years old): 13 funds, accounting for 65%;

"Mesozoic" fund managers (fund managers' years are between 3-7 years): 7 funds, accounting for 35%;

"Old generation" fund managers (fund managers with more than 7 years of service life): "mass extinction"!

For this "rookie's good luck" phenomenon, the old foundation people are completely confused

It's not scientific!

Old foundation people can't think of it. In the fund industry which pays attention to investment experience, how can "novice good luck" break out on a large scale?

Looking at each other, I asked myself, have you ever heard the name of the "new generation" high performance fund managers who ranked top in this year's income?

Cui Chenlong of Qianhai open source Fund (with an investment period of 1.20 years), Yang Yu of Great Wall Fund (with an investment period of 0.17 years), Han Chuang of Dacheng Fund (with an investment period of 2.72 years), Shu Jinwei of Wanjia Fund (with an investment period of 1.76 years), Shi Cheng of UBS Fund (with an investment period of 2.51 years), and Wang Bo of Anxin Fund (with an investment period of 1.74 years)

Is this year's "new generation" fund manager's counter attack just an accidental phenomenon?

After the discussion on how to select "Mesozoic" fund managers in the previous issue (the rise of "Mesozoic" forces in the fund industry, 2700 fund managers in four-dimensional race, 163 outstanding "Mesozoic" leaders) in this issue, we will comprehensively interpret the situation of "new generation" fund managers.

This year, the performance of a group of new generation fund managers is very beautiful, even surpassing the performance of "Mesozoic" and "old generation" fund managers- IC photo

Who are the "new generation" fund managers?

Generally, according to the investment duration, fund managers are simply divided into "old generation", "Mesozoic" and "Cenozoic".

The "new generation" is the fund managers who appeared after the "old generation" and "Mesozoic", and they are the new comers.

Among the active equity fund managers, we make a simple scope for the "new generation" fund managers. There are three conditions: the service life of the fund manager is less than 3 years, the geometric average annualized rate of return is more than 30%, and the scale under management is more than 1 billion.

In contrast, the investment life of "old generation" fund managers is more than 7 years, while that of "Mesozoic" fund managers is between 3-7 years.

It is worth mentioning that the "geometric average annualized rate of return" of "Mesozoic" fund managers in the previous period was set as 20%, while the screening condition of "new generation" fund managers was raised to 30%.

This is due to the following considerations:

On the one hand, we believe that if the "old generation" fund managers require a geometric average annual return of more than 10%, then correspondingly, it is reasonable for "Mesozoic" fund managers to require a geometric average annual return of more than 20% in five years. Similarly, it is reasonable for "new generation" fund managers to require a geometric average annualized return of more than 30% in two years.

On the other hand, the earliest appointment date of new generation fund managers is concentrated at the end of 2018 to the present. Among them, 2019 and 2020 are the year of the fund. The average returns of ordinary equity funds in the past two years are 47.33% and 60.45% respectively. Most of the "new generation" fund managers are "born" in a "good year", and the geometric average annualized yield of 30% is not demanding.

The "new generation" fund managers screened out from these three conditions have basically not experienced a complete round of market bull bear cycle, and their management scale is relatively small. We have selected "new generation" fund managers with a management scale of more than 1 billion.

According to the wind data, among the 2700 fund managers in the whole market, there are only 101 active equity fund managers who can meet these three conditions at the same time.

We will examine the "new generation" of active equity fund managers from different dimensions, including investment duration, performance, management scale, etc.

Investment duration: the "new generation" of rapid increase

With the rapid increase of equity funds in recent years, the number of "new generation" fund managers is growing rapidly.

Wind data shows that there are 2700 fund managers in the market.

Among them, 407 "old generation" fund managers (with more than 7 years of experience) have 407 fund managers, accounting for 15% of the total;

There are 1029 "Mesozoic" fund managers (the fund managers' years are between 3-7 years), accounting for 38% of the total fund managers;

There are 1264 "new generation" fund managers (fund managers with a term of less than 3 years), accounting for 47% of the total.

In short, from the number of fund managers, "the old generation" < the "Mesozoic era" < the "new generation".

In terms of quantity, half of the "new generation" fund managers have emerged in the last three years, which can almost be said to be an explosive growth.

Specifically, among the 1264 "new generation" fund managers:

2-year fund managers (investment period of 2-3 years): 313, accounting for 25%;

1-year fund managers (investment period of 1-2 years): 390, accounting for 31%;

Fund managers in 0 years (investment period less than 1 year): 561, accounting for 44%.

In short, from the number of fund managers, 2-year fund managers < 1-year fund managers < 0-year fund managers.

Among them, the number of fund managers in the year of 0 is the largest. If the fund industry also has a "chain of contempt", they are at the end of the "chain of contempt". As new people, most of these fund managers enter the market by taking over the old funds and have the opportunity to issue new funds after making achievements in 1-2 years. They have no historical burden, but they also have no experience.

Generally speaking, the "new generation" fund managers account for nearly half of the total number of fund managers, and the number has accelerated growth, becoming an important force.

Performance: why do novices win the familiar?

Performance is the "gold standard" for investors to choose fund managers. We look at the performance of "new generation" fund managers from three aspects.

（1） Outstanding "new generation" fund managers

We choose the standard of "geometric average annualized return > 30%" to select "new generation" fund managers.

According to wind data, among 2700 fund managers in the whole market, 101 "new generation" fund managers meet the requirements according to the three indicators of active equity fund managers with investment duration less than 3 years, geometric average annualized yield greater than 30% and management scale greater than 1 billion yuan.

Among them, there are 57 fund managers in two years and 44 fund managers in one year.

Among the 57 two-year fund managers, there are 2 managers with geometric average annualized return exceeding 80%, 14 with 50% - 80%, 22 with 30% - 40% and 19 with 20% - 30%.

Among the 44 one-year fund managers, the geometric average annualized rate of return is more than 120%, 17 are between 50% - 120%, 15 are between 30% - 40%, and 11 are between 20% - 30%.

（2） Why is the phenomenon of "rookie's good luck" this year?

What is puzzling is that the performance of a group of new generation fund managers this year is very beautiful, even surpassing the performance of "Mesozoic" and "old generation" fund managers.

As of September 30, among the top 20 active equity funds, there were 13 funds under the "new generation" fund managers, accounting for 65%; "Mesozoic" fund managers (fund managers with years of 3-7 years) have 7 funds, accounting for 35%; None of the "older generation" fund managers (with more than 7 years of experience) have entered the top 20 list of active equity fund returns this year.

Why do a large number of funds managed by new generation fund managers rank at the top of this year's performance, and the phenomenon that "novices outnumber skilled ones" appears?

In this regard, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, explained in an interview with the 21st century economic report that the new generation of fund managers have achieved relatively high performance this year. The main reason is that this year's market is more suitable for "new era" managers. The new generation of fund managers have no past investment experience, so they prefer to pursue hot spots and dare to invest heavily. Traditional fund managers are relatively conservative.

In fact, this year's market style is quite different. Cyclical stocks and new energy have risen most sharply. Some of the new generation fund managers are fully allocated to these two sectors, while traditional fund managers pay more attention to risk control, so they control their positions and only partially participate in or do not participate in these two sectors. As a result, the performance of new generation fund managers this year is stronger.

It is worth mentioning that Yang Delong believes that there are certain risks behind the investment style of the new generation fund managers with outstanding performance.

"This year's top performance of the new generation of fund managers, should timely do a good job in position control and plate adjustment, can not always bet on one direction, to prevent a sharp fall in the direction, the net value of a large retreat, chasing high may lead to relatively large losses." Yang Delong said.

（3） Can new generation fund managers invest?

"We can't rely on performance theory. One year's performance can't explain problems. If one year's performance is particularly good, it doesn't necessarily mean that it can be maintained in the next year. Therefore, investors should be vigilant and pay more attention to long-term performance ranking rather than short-term ranking," Yang Delong said.

"We should carefully analyze the reasons behind the excellent performance and diversify investment, instead of focusing on one fund. We suggest that we should look at the performance of the fund in the medium and long term, at least two or three years' performance, which are more referential," Yang Delong said.

In fact, since last year, the fund's award criteria have changed, making it difficult for "new generation" fund managers to gain market recognition.

According to the proposal of fund evaluation institutions jointly signed by 10 fund evaluation and award institutions including Jian financial information, Morningstar and Haitong Securities, since 2020, fund evaluation will no longer carry out awards for funds less than three years old, and cancel one-year fund awards. Highlight three-year, five-year and other long-term awards. We will not rank the funds that have been established for less than one year, rank the single index of funds less than one year, and do not rank the management scale.

In fact, from another perspective, it shows that the performance ranking of new generation fund managers (fund managers with less than 3 years old) is not very recognized by the industry.

Scale: a new generation of star fund managers

Although the investment period is very short, there are also a number of star fund managers with market appeal.

According to the statistics of 21st century economic report, among the 101 "new generation" excellent and active equity fund managers, 26 are in charge of 10 billion yuan of funds, 22 are of 5-10 billion yuan scale, and 53 are of 1-5 billion yuan scale.

The top 10 management scale of "new generation" fund managers is as follows: Zheng chengran of GF fund is 42.174 billion yuan, Zhu Zhen of Ruiyuan fund is 36.963 billion yuan, Zhang Ping of Yinhua Fund is 36.567 billion yuan, Wang Yuanchun of e fund is 35.885 billion yuan, Cai Songsong of noan fund is 35.328 billion yuan, Wang Mingxu of Guangfa fund is 30.652 billion yuan, Liang Yuejun of Zhuque fund is 26.971 billion yuan Lu Bin of HSBC Jinxin fund was 21.618 billion yuan, Liu Wu of e fund was 21.178 billion yuan, and Li Jing of Shanghai Oriental securities assets was 19.699 billion yuan.

The above-mentioned "new generation" fund managers have risen rapidly in a short period of time and become star fund managers with great market appeal and influence.

They have their own characteristics. Some of them rely on performance, some rely on investment track, and some rely on powerful fund companies. For example, Zheng chengran, an outstanding fund manager with outstanding performance in 2020, Cai Songsong's investment in semiconductors is very popular, and Zhu Fubei is a famous Ruiyuan fund in equity investment.

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