Market Dynamics: Domestic Downstream Cotton Textile Enterprises Orders Less Than Expected

However, in terms of subdivision, chemical fiber substitution is obvious. As the spot price of cotton reached 22700 yuan / ton, when the order was not as expected, cotton yarn production lost 500-1000 yuan / ton (including depreciation) and cash flow loss was about 1500 yuan / ton. However, pure polyester yarn production made a profit of 1000-1500 yuan / ton, so the amount of polyester cotton and blended yarn decreased significantly, and the pure cotton plant was shut down. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the decline of cotton consumption caused by chemical fiber substitution under high startup rate.

In terms of inventory, according to statistics, as of March 11, raw material inventory of spinning mill was 27.3 days, finished product inventory was 30.5 days, raw material inventory decreased, finished product inventory increased. The cotton yarn inventory of the weaving mill was 8.6 days, and the finished product inventory of the whole cotton grey fabric was 31.1 days. The inventory of raw materials in spinning mills and weaving mills are all at low level, and the products are not in smooth delivery, and the negative feedback of orders is not as expected.

On the whole, the reasons for the downturn of cotton spot market are as follows: first, the cotton cost in Xinjiang is too high and the cost advantage disappears; Second, Xinjiang cotton was sanctioned by the United States, some foreign trade orders need to use imported cotton production. By comprehensive comparison, the orders of Southeast Asian manufacturers during the "golden three silver four" period were much better than those of domestic manufacturers, and domestic orders were distributed.

At present, private ginning plants are facing the pressure of loan maturity. Under the background that the "gold, silver and four" orders were not as expected, the acceptance of cotton prices in the downstream declined, and the mode of "buy as you use" was adopted. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to whether private ginning plants will reduce the price of goods and return the funds in the later stage. The state-owned ginning plants with strong capital strength may not choose to sell at a loss. In addition, the pressure of the hedging plate above the high level of 22500 yuan / ton is still in place. As the planting season in April is approaching, attention should be paid to cotton planting and weather conditions in the new season. In case of bad weather, it may affect the emergence of cotton seedlings, which has a greater impact on the far month contract.

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