China'S Foreign Trade Orders Increase Sharply With The Resumption Of Work In Southeast Asia

With the relaxation of entry restrictions in Southeast Asian countries and the improvement of consumption expectations, the demand for orders in Southeast Asian countries will rebound in a "retaliatory" manner, and the export transport market in Southeast Asia will also become more hot.

Take Vietnam as an example. Since Vietnam opened its door in mid March, Vietnam's total import and export of goods trade in March reached 66.73 billion US dollars, up 36.8% month on month. Among them, exports amounted to 34.06 billion US dollars, an increase of 45.5%; Imports were 32.67 billion US dollars, an increase of 28.7%. At present, the shipping line from North China to Ho Chi Minh has increased by more than 50% in some cases.

It can be seen that the foreign trade of Southeast Asia and other countries is recovering rapidly, which has led to the outflow of orders that previously returned to China.

1. Under the new pressure of foreign trade, the phenomenon of destroying orders has increased sharply

According to the website of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first quarter, China's industrial capacity utilization rate was 75.8%, 1.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year; The utilization rate of manufacturing capacity was 75.9%, down 1.7 percentage points.

With the low utilization rate of industrial and manufacturing capacity and the soaring prices of energy and raw materials, in addition to the "outflow phenomenon" of foreign trade orders, there is also another kind of new pressure that can not be underestimated, that is, the sharp increase of destruction of orders.

Guan Tao, the global chief economist of BOC securities, said that the current economic operation is facing greater uncertainty and challenges. From the external point of view, geopolitical conflicts have intensified and the momentum of global economic recovery has been weakened, which may speed up the narrowing of China's trade surplus.

At the same time, although China's economy was the first to resume production, our export pricing capacity was limited. For example, some foreign businessmen worry that logistics is not guaranteed, and they will place a lot of orders at the same time. Whoever delivers the goods to the warehouse first will pay the balance to the one who will lose the deposit at most. But this will create competition among domestic exporters.

2. Vietnam's manufacturing industry has a strong recovery

Among Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam is particularly outstanding. Vietnam's General Administration of Customs announced that the total import and export volume of Vietnam's goods trade in the first quarter reached 176.35 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% (a net increase of 22.17 billion US dollars). In particular, the export growth of agricultural products was quite high, about 18-19%.

In addition, the export momentum of clothing manufacturing industry is strong. It is understood that many local textile enterprise orders have even been arranged to the third quarter of this year. On the other hand, the rapid recovery of textile and garment import demand in Vietnam is due to the rapid increase in domestic demand for cotton yarn.

The domestic textile leader Lutai textile also began to take power in the Southeast Asian market again. The total planned investment of Vientiane textile, a wholly-owned subsidiary, in Xining province of Vietnam is about 210 million US dollars.

In addition, for the sake of further stable development of the country, Vietnam has determined its ambition for short-term and long-term development. The specific objectives are set in three stages, which are called "Three-stage" development strategic objectives.

The first stage: by 2025, the per capita income will exceed US $4000 and become a developing country with a modern industrial foundation. The second stage: to build a developing country with modern industries with a per capita income of US $4000-12000 by 2030. The third stage: to build a modern socialist developed country with a per capita income of more than US $12000 by 2045.

3. The labor force is cheap and the market is active

According to Vietnam's import and export trade data in the first quarter, Vietnamese industry insiders predict that with the current growth rate, the country's import and export volume may reach a new high of US $700 billion in 2022. Among them, the Ministry of industry and trade has set an export target of US $363 billion, an increase of 6-8% over 2021, and the premise is to maintain a certain degree of trade surplus.

In addition, Vietnam's General Bureau of Statistics recently released a report that in the first quarter of 2022, the labor market of various industries in China gradually began to be active, and the income of workers improved significantly. The average monthly income of workers in Ho Chi Minh City was the highest in China, with an average monthly income of 8.9 million Dunn (about 2480 yuan), an increase of 36.5% over the previous quarter, or 2.4 million Dunn (about 670 yuan).

This figure is obviously lower than that of China. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the annual wage of manufacturing and related personnel is 65241 yuan, and the average monthly income is about 5437 yuan.

Due to the low-cost labor force, foreign enterprises are looking to Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries, such as Samsung, Foxconn, Microsoft, Intel, Panasonic and other international giants.

In addition, in order to further attract foreign investment, Vietnam also signed a free trade agreement with the European Union, reducing the tariff by 99%; Formulate policies to attract foreign investment, such as reducing tariffs to attract foreign enterprises to build factories in China. This move has made good progress. Many foreign enterprises have withdrawn their enterprises in China.

In the face of this situation, although made in China is still at the top of the world, Southeast Asia's manufacturing industry also has an absolute advantage. Today, with global demand slowing down and fast fashion discount retailers becoming popular, the "sweatshop" behind fashion is hard to disappear.

During the two sessions of the NPC and CPPCC, China also proposed: to promote high-quality economic development, we should focus on promoting the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure, and make the real economy stronger and better. It means that the country has started a new journey of high-quality development.